Global Asset Allocation November 2007 Jurrien Timmer Director
Global Asset Allocation November 2007 Jurrien Timmer Director of Market Research Fidelity Investments The information presented reflects the opinions of Jurrien Timmer, Director of Market Research, for Fidelity Management & Research Company as of November 14, 2007. These opinions do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions. Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity fund are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity fund. As with all of your investments through Fidelity, you must make your own determination whether an investment in any particular security or fund is consistent with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, financial situation, and your evaluation of the investment option. Fidelity is not recommending or endorsing any particular investment option by mentioning it in this presentation or by making it available to its customers. This information is provided for educational purposes only, and you should bear in mind that laws of a particular state and your particular situation may affect this information. FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS
ASSET ALLOCATION TACTICAL STRATEGIC CORE FUNDAMENTAL GLOBALIZATION STOCKS Earnings & Valuation Interest Rates & Inflation U. S. INT’L Emerging Markets EM Commodities Economic Cycle LIQUIDITY BONDS TECHNICAL Inv Grade High Yield TIPS M&A LBOs Buybacks Trend/Cycles Sentiment CLIMATE CHANGE Breadth/Momentum Alt Energy CASH & ALTs Commodities QUANT Back-testing Abs Return REITs SCARCITY Cash Energy Water Agflation Page 2
Index definitions listed on slide 23 Page 3
PORT consists of 20 pct U. S. large cap, 15 pct U. S. small cap, 10 pct developed international, 5 pct emerging markets, 20 pct U. S. investment grade bonds, 10 pct U. S. high yield, 5 pct commodities, 5 pct REITs, and 10 pct in HF strategies. Page 4
A noticeable shift in the efficient frontier. Page 5
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Investment Climate STRATEGIC/SECULAR • Globalization. A secular boom in emerging markets and commodities. • Peak Oil. Will incremental flows be sufficient to keep up with incremental demand? • Water Scarcity. The coming boom in water utilities and infrastructure. • Global Infrastructure. Everything needs to be either built or upgraded. • Climate Change. The green movement is here to stay. • Inflation. On the rise. Global growth becomes inflationary. • Liquidity Wave. Down but not out? TACTICAL/CYCLICAL • U. S. Market Cycle. Is a new four year cycle beginning? • The Problem with Housing. Will the housing downturn lead to a recession? • Financial Crisis. When will it end? • Fed Reflation. The Fed reflated the financial system despite inflation worries. Page 7
Magazine: Time, January 22, 2007; The Economist, February 24, 2007; The Economist, April 19, 2007 Page 8
Non-U. S. stocks have outperformed since 2000. Page 9
Stock prices are benefiting from a global liquidity boom. Page 10
Equity leadership has evolved over the years. Page 11
Quarterly data from 1/00 through 12/06. By 2050, there will be 3 billion more energy consumers and the world could be consuming 42% more oil than today. Barry Bannister, Stifel Nicolaus Page 12
Oil is approaching the $100 target. Page 13
Water: the scarcest commodity? Needs person: Water needed for drinking: 2 -3 liters per day Water needed for cooking, bathing, & sanitation: 50 liters per day Water needed to grow our food: 3, 000 liters per day Source: 13 D Research Page 14
The Investment Clock high inflation Non-cyclicals Pharma Utilities Bonds Fed eases 0 43 DOWN CYCLE 35 Financials Consumer Technology New Bull Mkt 43 Bull mkt ends disinflation EARLY CYCLE 11 36 12 LATE CYCLE Inflation accelerates 13 MID CYCLE 15 30 Energy non-cyclicals Pharma Commodities 28 Earnings growth peaks 26 24 20 Fed starts to tighten Energy Industrials Materials Technology Commodities Page 15
2007 will be known as the year of the subprime credit crisis. 1987 Black Monday 1984 Continental Illinois 1982 Latin America 1970 Penn Central 1990 S&L Crisis 1994 Mexico 2001 9/11 Tech Bubble Corp. Scandals 2007 Sub-prime 1998 LTCM Russia Asian Contagion 1974 Franklin National Page 16
Housing will likely remain a problem for some time to come. Page 17
Important Legal Information • Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee. • The information presented reflects the opinions of Jurrien Timmer, Director of Market Research, for Fidelity Management & Research Company as of November 14, 2007. These opinions do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions. Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity fund are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity fund. • Past performance is no guarantee of future results. • As with all of your investments through Fidelity, you must make your own determination whether an investment in any particular security or fund is consistent with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, financial situation, and your evaluation of the investment option. Fidelity is not recommending or endorsing any particular investment option by mentioning it in this conference call or by making it available to its customers. This information is provided for educational purposes only, and you should bear in mind that laws of a particular state and your particular situation may affect this information. • The S&P 500® and S&P are registered trademarks of The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , and are licensed for use by Fidelity Distributors Corp. , and its affiliates. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of common stocks. All indexes are unmanaged and no investment may be made in any index. Stock values fluctuate in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions. • [Fidelity, Fidelity Investments, and Fidelity Investments & Pyramid Design] is a /are registered service mark(s) of FMR Corp. • Small-cap stocks are generally more volatile than large-cap stocks. • Lower-quality debt securities involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. • Foreign investments, especially those in emerging markets, involve greater risk and may offer greater potential returns than U. S. investments. This risk includes political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries, as well as the risk of currency fluctuation. • Value stocks can perform differently from the market as a whole. They can remain undervalued by the market for long periods of time. • The Fed Funds rate is the rate of interest on overnight loans of excess reserves among commercial banks. Bonds are rated by agencies such as Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investor Services with ratings that measure the risk of default. Bonds rated AAA are considered to be the safest while those rated below BBB are considered to be “high yield” or below investment grade. Intermediate ratings of AA+ or BB- are often used to further differentiate bonds. Lower-quality debt securities involve greater risk of default or price changes due to the credit quality of the issuer. 30 -year treasury and 10 year treasury are a fixed income securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U. S. government and are used as benchmarks for the pricing of various corporate fixed income instruments. The S&P Gold group is an index of gold stocks as defined by Standard & Poor’s. The NAREIT All Issues REITs Index is an index of real estate investment trusts as defined by the Nat’l Assoc. of Realtors. • The Periodic Table of Investment Returns shows the returns of various asset classes over time, ranked from best to worst. The chart represents data through 9/30/07. Source: FMRCo. Russell 2000: Russell 2000 Index. Small Growth: Russell 2000 Growth Index. Small Value: Russell 2000 Value Index. Large Growth: Russell 1000 Growth Index. Large Value: Russell 1000 Value Index. S&P 500: Standards & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. Bonds: Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index. Cash: 3 month TBills (Ibbotson Assoc. ). Commodities: Goldman Sachs Commodities Index. Real Estate: NAREIT Equity Index. Convertibles: CSFB Convertible Securities Index. Japan: MCSI (in U. S. Dollars). Europe: MCSI (in U. S. Dollars). EAFE: MCSI (in U. S. Dollars). High Yield: Ibbotson Assoc. Domestic High Yield Index. Gold: Ibbotson Associates. Page 18
Important Legal Information • Definitions of categories and indices on slide 3: • Small Cap: Russell 2000 Index. The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged market cap-weighted index of 2, 000 small company stocks. • Small Growth: Russell 2000 Growth Index. The Russell 2000 Growth Index is an unmanaged index of 2, 000 small company stocks, determined by Russell to be growth stocks as measured by their price-to-book ratios and forecasted growth values. • Small Value: Russell 2000 Value Index. The Russell 2000 Value Index is an unmanaged market cap-weighted index of 2, 000 small company stocks, determined by Russell to be value stocks as measured by their price-to book ratios and forecasted growth values. • Large Growth: Russell 1000 Growth Index. The Russell 1000 Growth Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of large company stocks determined by Russell to be growth stocks as measured by their price-to-book ratios and forecasted growth values. • Large Value: Russell 1000 Value Index. The Russell 1000 Value Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of large company stocks determined by Russell to be value stocks as measured by their price-to-book ratios and forecasted growth values. • S&P 500: Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index. The S&P 500® and S&P, are registered trademarks of The Mc. Graw-Hill Companies, Inc. , and are licensed for use by Fidelity Distributors Corp. , and its affiliates. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index of common stocks. • Bonds: Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index. A Benchmark index made Up of the Lehman Brothers Government/Corporate Bond Index, Mortgage-Backed Securities Index, and Asset-Backed Securities Index, including securities that are of investment-grade quality or better, have at least one year to maturity, and have an outstanding Par value of at least $100 million. • Cash: 3 month T-Bills (Ibbotson Assoc. ) • Commodities: Goldman Sachs Commodities Index. The GSCI is a composite index of commodity sector returns, representing an un-leveraged, long-only investment in commodity futures that is broadly diversified across the spectrum of commodities. • Real Estate: NAREIT Equity Index. The unmanaged National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT) Equity Index is a market-value weighted index based upon the last closing price of the month for tax-qualified REITs listed on the NYSE. • Convertibles: CSFB Convertible Securities Index. CSFB's U. S. Convertible Securities Index is a market-weighted benchmark of convertible performance. • Japan: MCSI (in U. S. Dollars). The Morgan Stanley Capital International Japan Index is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to represent the performance of the Japanese stock market. • Europe: MCSI (in U. S. Dollars). The MSCI AC World Ex-US Index, when including or excluding securities, takes into account any limitations that an international investor would experience when investing directly in such securities. The index contains both developed and emerging market securities. • EAFE: MCSI (in U. S. Dollars). Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australasia, Far East Index (EAFE) is an unmanaged market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to represent the performance of developed stock markets outside the United States and Canada. The EAFE Index is registered service mark of Morgan Stanley and has been licensed for use by FMR Corp. The fund is neither sponsored by, nor affiliated with Morgan Stanley. • High Yield: Ibbotson Assoc. Domestic High Yield Index. Ibbotson Domestic High Yield Index is a broad high yield index including high yield bonds across the maturity spectrum, within the BB-B rated credit quality spectrum, included in the below-investment-grade universe. • Gold: Ibbotson Associates. The Ibbotson Gold Index is an unmanaged market cap-weighted index of gold-related stocks. Fidelity Investments Institutional Company, Inc. 473695. 1. 0 FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS 82 Devonshire Street, Boston, MA 02109 Page 19
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