GHG Emission Trends Technological Options for its reduction

GHG Emission Trends & Technological Options for its reduction in Pakistan By Jawed Ali Khan, TNA Consultant Mitigation Feb. 2016

Temperature rise projections Pakistan & Global • During the last century, average annual temperature in Pakistan increased by 0. 6 C. • Average temp. over Pakistan will increase by: v 1. 3 – 1. 5 C by 2020; v 2. 5 – 2. 8 C by 2050; & v 3. 9 – 4. 4 C by 2080. • Average global surface temperature will increase by 2. 8 – 3. 4 C by turn of 21 st century. • Pakistan is a low GHG emitting country, it contributes only about 8 percent of the total GHG emission. 2

GHG Emission Trends 1994 -2012 • GHG inventories carried out in Pakistan in 1994, 2008 and 2012, reveals that total GHG emission increased from 181. 7; 309. 4 to 369 m tons of CO 2 equivalent, respectively. • Sector-wise GHG emission was recorded lighest in energy which contributed 47. 2; 50. 7 and 45. 9% in 1994, 2008 and 2012, respectively. • The 2 nd highest GHG emission sector was Agriculture which recorded an emission of 39. 4; 38. 8 & 44. 8% in 1994, 2008 and 2012, respectively • Contribution of other sectors in terms of GHG emission were from industrial process, land use and land use change and forests and wastes in the inventory years 1994, 2008 and 2012. 3

La nd e us e ng ch a & l te as To ta W ry st fo re re tu ric ul Ag s es se or ct se ro c lp ria du st In gy er En or t an sp Tr ns po rt) Million tons of CO 2 equivalent ra ng t clu di Ex r( to ec ys rg ne 400 Total National GHG emissions & removals by Inventory year 300 200 100 0 1994 2008 2012

Million tons of CO 2 equivalent Total National GHG emissions & removals by Inventory year 4750 4500 4250 4000 3750 3500 3250 3000 2750 2500 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 2012 2020 2030 2050 Total Emissions Energy Agriculture Industrial processes LULUCF Waste

Technologies prioritized in selected sectors Energy 1. Boiler and furnace energy efficiency improvement 2. Building energy efficiency improvement 3. Micro and small hydro 4. Solar energy technology 5. Wind generators 6. Using nuclear technologies for electricity generation 7. Clean coal technology

Technologies prioritized in selected sectors Agriculture 1. Appropriate application of fertilizers & soil Carbon management 2. Rice cultivation by alternate wetting & drying/aerobic 3. Diet options for reducing Enteric Fermentation in ruminant animals Land Use, LU Change & Forestry 1. Social/ Farm forestry as Carbon sink 2. Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation (REDD+) 3. Preparation and implementation of Land use plans at village, District, Provincial and National levels Waste 1. Biogas – Compressed bio-methane from Organic Waste 2. Waste to energy through a furnace 3. Integrated resource recovery from waste

Technologies prioritized in selected sectors Transport & industrial process 1. Bus rapid transport 2. Railway transportation 3. Adjustment of air-fuel mixture for better ignition, carburetor and other routine checkups in Vehicles 4. Catalytic Converters for vehicles and industries 5. Waste heat recovery

Performance matrix showing scores of selected technologies in energy sector # Technolog y Name 1 Boiler & furnace energy efficiency Improvem ent (EEI) EEI in buildings 2 3 4 Solar energy Large hydro Potenti Time Reduct Health Sustai Initial/ Operatio Capacity safety Employm Social al to savi ion of benefits nabilit Capital n and building and ent impac save ng GHGs y cost Mainten is reliabil generatio ts usage of ance cost required ity n& fuel market potential 80 90 80 60 50 85 80 70 80 85 75 70 60 80 80 85 70 80 70 85 80 75 80 90 90 80 80 80 95 90 55 60 80 90 20 80 55 70 55 90 60 75 90 50

Boiler and furnace energy efficiency improvement Description Mitigation Potential Improving EE through boiler & furnace Up to 35% tune up; control of air leakage, reduction in insulation, blow-down; introducing emissions of high turn-down burner, air pre-heater, GHGs variable frequency drive coupled with O 2 trimming system, feed water treatment, flash steam recovery

Building energy efficiency improvement Description Mitigation Potential Improving EE through building design, Up to 70% air conditioner inverter, power factor reduction in improvement, efficient lighting & fuel- emissions of efficient stoves GHGs

Solar energy technology Description Introduction of solar Photovoltaic and thermal technologies for power generation, water pumping, solar geyser, solar dryer. Mitigation Potential Up to 70% reduction in emissions of GHGs - If 50 -65% of households, equivalent to 12 million households, use solar water heaters by 2030, the emission reduction potential can reach 100 million tons of CO 2

Micro, mini, & small Hydro power plants Description Micro plants are up to 150 KW, mini up to 5 MW, small are up to 50 MW Mitigation Potential Up to 70% reduction in emissions of GHGs. Potential >40, 000 MW of which only 15% harnessed so far. If 25000 MW are produced from Micro, mini and small hydro, it can save GHG emissions up to 46 million tons of CO 2 as compared to electricity generation energy mix in the country.

Wind generators Description Mostly wind generators with capacity >50 KW Mitigation Potential Up to 60% reduction in emissions of GHGs Gross wind power potential is 43000 MW. Exploitable electric power generation potential 11000 MW. This can reduce 20 million tons of CO 2 compared to producing this power from present energy mix.

Using nuclear technologies for electricity generation Description International cooperation on civilian nuclear technology should be extended to the country to mitigate GHG emissions. This cooperation would be under IAEA safeguards Mitigation Potential 60% as compared to electricity generation from thermal sources

Clean coal technology (Supercritical (SC) & Ultrasupercritical (USC) Description Mitigation Potential SC & USC power plants operate at high Up to 30% temperature (SC 556 -566 C; USC >580 C) & reduction pressure (SC 246 -250; USC >270 kg/cm 2). in This results in higher efficiencies > 45%. emissions The SC & USC power plants require less coal of GHGs per MW-hour, leading to lower emissions (including CO 2 and mercury), higher efficiency & lower fuel costs per MW

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