Gerrymandering Democracy in Peril Redistricting Geography based elected

Gerrymandering: Democracy in Peril

Redistricting �Geography based elected positions �Population based elected positions �US Census every decade - counts everyone �District lines drawn; responsibility of states - Fixed number of seats (435 for US house) - Approx. equal populations each seat (710, 767) with exceptions

What is Gerrymandering? �The practice of manipulating the boundaries of an electoral constituency to favor one party or class. �Representatives choose voters rather than voters choosing representatives. �Types: Racial, Incumbency, Partisan

What is Gerrymandering? d e l e t e ri o u s �Existed since 1812 Massachusetts �What was different in 2010 -2011 cycle? Republican takeover of state houses Recent tech advances leveraged - more powerful intelligence & big data - software developed to optimize one party’s advantage - more money flooding into redistricting process (REDMAP)

d e s p i c a b l e How to Guide for Gerrymanderers Steve Nass commons. wikimedia. org

d i s g r a c e f u l How to Guide for Gerrymanderers �Pack NC 12 th District

How to Guide for Gerrymanderers �Pack d e v i o u s NC 12 th District Metro & Crack Houston TX

d a s t a r d l y How to Guide for Gerrymanderers �Gerrymandering works by forcing the opposing party to “waste” votes. - Votes for a losing candidate are “wasted” - Votes in excess of those needed to win are “wasted” �Optimum: - Win by a little - Lose by a lot

How Powerful is Gerrymandering? d e p l o r a b l e 2018 Election Results Wisconsin State Assembly Votes Seats Dylan Brogan, Isthmus Nov. 15, 2018 Uncontested races and 3 rd party votes not included

How Powerful is Gerrymandering? d i s h o n o r a b l e 2018 Election Results North Carolina US Congress Votes Seats Uncontested races and 3 rd party votes not included

How Powerful is Gerrymandering? d e t e s t a b l e Pennsylvania – US Congress Votes Seat s 2016 - Before Court Ordered Redistricting Votes Seat s 2018 - After Court Ordered Redistricting Uncontested races and 3 rd party votes not included

Measuring Gerrymandering Clustering- Dems concentrated in urban areas, Reps distributed in rural areas. Common statistical methods: two sample t -test, mean-median difference, Monte Carlo simulations Efficiency gap- Stephanopoulos & Mc. Ghee Compares wasted votes Gap of >8% too much

d u p l i c i t o u s Side Effects of Gerrymandering �Lowers voter participation �More extreme candidates elected �Conflict between statewide & district elected officials. (Wisconsin, Michigan, NC) �Many see as unfair, undemocratic and sometimes immoral. �Undermines democracy

What’s Changed Since 2010 Court Cases �Court orders: Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina �Pending court cases: Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan, Virginia, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Louisiana, Connecticut �US Supreme Court agreed to hear: Common Cause v. Rucho (NC) Benisek v. Lamone (MD)

What’s Changed Since 2010 Political Process �Ballot initiatives approved: Ohio, Michigan, Utah, Missouri �Ballot initiatives in process: Arkansas, Oklahoma �Legislative proposals passed: Colorado �Legislative proposals in process: Virginia

New York State US Congressional Districts 2012 -2020 Fivethirtyeight. co m

New York State US Congressional Districts 2022 -2030 �Prediction- NY could lose one district �NY growth ~1% US growth ~6% �Population losses in rural areas nationally �Syracuse shrinking �Wayne County shrinking

New York State Senate and Assembly Elections Efficiency Gap State Senate State Assembly 2012 +R 12% +R 11% 2014 +R 19% +R 4% 2016 +R 15% +R 11% Rockefeller Institute of Government

New York State Senate Districts 2012 -2020 Ideal Population= 312, 550

New York State Change to Redistricting Procedures Constitutional amendment approved in 2014 and takes effect during the 2020 redistricting cycle. �Ten member bi-partisan, non-partisan commission �Anti-gerrymandering requirements �Transparency requirements �Ultimate responsibility remains with legislature

New York State 2021 Redistricting �Who has a say? ◦ Commission appointed by current state legislators ◦ State assembly & senate elected in 2020 ◦ Gov. Cuomo- signature or veto authority

New York State County Legislatures �Monroe County- county executive and 29 member county legislature �Wayne County- board of supervisors comprised of town supervisors No need for redistricting No opportunity for gerrymandering

What Can We Do? �Respond to census & encourage others �Track redistricting process �Let our state legislators know we’re against gerrymandering & we’re watching �Encourage sister groups in heavily gerrymandered districts �Vote, vote & vote some more