Germanys Green Energy Transition Arne Jungjohann Heinrich Bll

Germany’s Green Energy Transition Arne Jungjohann, Heinrich Böll Foundation, Washington DC Durban, December 2011 Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org

Washington, DC. Mexico City. San Salvador. Rio de Janeiro. Santiago de Chile. Lagos. Cape Town Nairobi. Addis Ababa. Berlin. Brussels. Warsaw. Prague. Sarajevo. Belgrade. Zagreb. Istanbul Kiev. Moscow. Tbilisi. Kabul. Lahore. New Dheli. Chiang Mai. Phnom Penh. Beijing

Part 1 Reaction in Germany after Fukushima driven by… 1. Concerns on Nuclear 2. Credibility of Renewables 3. Politics Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org Foto: Anti-Atom-Treck 2010

German reaction after Fukushima driven by • Chernobyl 1986 • new risk assessment Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA • 17 old NPP, 80 Million Germany ½ the size of Texas www. hbfus. org

Source: BMU Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org

Jobs: Renewable Energy vs. Lignite Coal Germany, 2004 -2010 Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org 6

Part 2 Gradual Phase-Out by 2022 Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org

Power Generation in Germany (2010) Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org Friday, May 28, 2010 Source: AG Energiebilanzen

Nuclear Phase-Out by 2022… Before Fukushima: • 17 NPP operating up to 2032 • providing 22% of power • ~20 GW installed capacity After Fukushima: • Immediate shutdown of 8 NPP • gradual phase-out by 2022 of remaining 9 NPP Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org

Part 3 So what about… …energy costs? …power shortages & imports? … CO 2 emissions? Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org

Expensive Renewable Energy? No, but modest price tag for ratepayers Institute Commissioned by Estimated rate increase SRU 0, 4 ECent/k. Wh Eco-Institute WWF 0, 5 ECent/k. Wh RWI/EWI Prognos Fed Government Fed of Bavarian Industry 0, 5 ECent/k. Wh 0, 6 ECent/k. Wh R 2 B BDI/Chamber of C 0, 9 ECent/k. Wh DIW 1, 2 ECent/k. Wh Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org Source: Md. B Hans-Josef Fell

Nuclear is costly: (Subsidy Billions of Euros since 1970) Heinrich Böll Foundation North America Hard Coal Lignite 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA Nuclear Power www. hbfus. org Renewables Friday, May 28, 2010 Source: Green Budget Germany

Increasing electricity imports? Not as a net exporter Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org

Mio t CO 2 Increasing emissions? Not with carbon cap on power sector Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org Friday, May 28, 2010 Source: BMU

GHG Emissions Increasing emissions? Not with long-term climate targets Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org Friday, May 28, 2010 Source: BMU

Part 4 Outlook 2020 – 2050 On the Way to a Renewable Energy Economy Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org

Key Climate and Energy Policies Ecological tax reform (1999 -2003) Renewable Energy Act (2000) Nuclear Phase Out (2001 -2022) Cap and trade (2005) Integrated Climate and Energy Program (2007) • Renewable Energy Action Plan (2010) • Energy concept 2050 (2010) • • • Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org 17

Goal: 80% to 100% Renewable Energies by 2050 Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org

Energy concept 2050: The road to the renewable era Source: BMU Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org

Thank you for your attention! Arne Jungjohann Heinrich Boell Foundation, Washington DC Arne. Jungjohann@us. boell. org Heinrich Böll Foundation North America 1638 R Street, NW, Suite 120 Washington, DC 20009, USA www. hbfus. org 20