Geostationary Lightning Mapper GLM GLM detects total strikes

Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) GLM detects total strikes: in cloud, cloud to cloud, and cloud to ground • Near uniform spatial resolution of approximately 10 km. • Coverage up to 52 deg latitude. • 70 -90% flash detection day and night over the Americas and adjacent ocean regions. • < 20 sec product latency • Provides additional information about TC intensity changes and of severe weather events. LIS/OTD Combined Lightning 1997 -2005 1

2011 NHC Proving Ground Products Rapid Intensification Index (RII) Mark De. Maria / John Knaff 2

Lightning-Based Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Index (RII) • Ground-based lightning data used as a proxy for GOES-R GLM • NHC real-time rapid intensification index (RII) – Input from GFS model, GOES imagery, oceanic heat content analyses, Reynolds SST, persistence – Discriminant analysis provides probability of max wind increase of at least 30 kt in 24 hr • Experimental version adds lightning density input – 6 hr storm-relative composites – 2005 -2010 developmental sample from WWLLN – Real time in 2011 from WWLLN feed at CIRA • Last year Vaisala used in real time, which introduced additional source of error – Text product distributed from CIRA – Analogous to text product for operational RII 3

6 hour WWLLN Lightning Strikes -- Hurricane Omar 16 Oct 2008 RII predictors include inner core (0 -100 km) and rainband (200 -300 km) lightning strike density 4

Sample Text Output from 2010 product Lightning-Based Rapid Intensification Forecast Algorithm Hurricane Alex 30 June 2010 00 UTC Will be available at: ftp: //rammftp. cira. colostate. edu/demaria/NHCPG 5

Summary of 2011 RII Changes • WWLLN used in real time, consistent with developmental sample • Output will also include rapid weakening probability – Max wind decrease of 20 kt or more in 24 hr – Valid for storms over water