George W Bush 43 Bush 43 Initial Foreign

George W. Bush (43)

Bush 43 Initial Foreign Policy • Realism – Hegemonic Realism – China as Strategic Competitor • No Peace Operations; No Nation-building • Neoconservatives

World Trade Center, NYC

Pentagon

National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States • 9/11 Commission • Kean Commission

AQ is Clear About Goals • 1996 fatwa • 1998 fatwa • Al-Qaeda Training Manual (from Dept. of Justice) • Bin-Laden videos • Abu Bakr Naji, The Management of Savagery • Article on Mustafa Setmariam Nasar (Abu Musab al-Suri) Osama bin-Laden

Origins of AQ • • Iranian Revolution (1978 -1979) provides inspiration • • • Ideological legacy of radical Islamic thought provides ideology and inspiration • • • Saudi funded religious schools (madrassas) in Middle East and Asia (1970 s-1980 s) provides recruits with ideology foreign fighters go home, form new groups or join existing groups, create a global terror network formation of Afghan mujehadin Pakistan military allies with radical Islamic groups (1977 -79) provides sanctuary USSR invades Afghanistan 1979 US, China, Pakistan Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and others funding, supplying, and training mujahedin and jihadis OBL and others recruit volunteers from madrassas in M. E. and Asia (foreign fighters or jihadis) • Time Soviets withdraw 1989 al-Qaeda (global) Abu Sayyaf (Phil. ) GIA (Algeria) HAMAS Islamic Jihad IMU Jemaah Islamiah PIJ Bosnia, Chechnya, Kashmir…

Bush Doctrine 1. Choosing Sides 1. Afghanistan and Pakistan 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Preemption (Preventive War) Linkage of terrorism and WMD Regime Change Multilateralism 2005 Spreading Democracy • • Bush 43 as an idealist US vs. radical ideology

Documents on the Bush Doctrine • Bush Admin. National Security Strategy, Sept. 2002 • Bush Admin. National Security Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction • President GW Bush’s West Point Commencement speech, June 2002 • President GW Bush’s Second Inaugural Address, Jan. 2005 • President GW Bush’s State of the Union address, Feb. 2005 • President GW Bush speech on the war on terrorism Oct. 2005 • Bush Admin. , “National Security Strategy of the US, ” March 2006 • National Security Strategy for Combating Terrorism, 2003 • National Security Strategy for Combating Terrorism, 2006

Iraq Timeline

The Bush Argument 1. 2. 3. 4. Iraq has WMD: October 2002 NIE Unfinished Business: 1998 Iraq Liberation Act Spreading Democracy Iraq and al-Qaeda? 1. 2. 3. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence: US Intelligence Community’s Prewar Intelligence on Iraq, July 2004 (page 32 and 304 -370) Levin Report, October 2004 Pentagon Report, August 2007

2002 -2003 Bush 43 Makes the Case • VP Cheney speech at VFW, August 2002; • UN Security Council Res. 1441 (11/02) • Congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq, PL 107 -243, 10/16/02 • National Security Adviser Rice, January 2003: “mushroom cloud” comment • Secretary of State Colin Powell’s United Nations presentation on Iraqi WMD (February 2003)

March 19, 2003: US Invasion April 9, 2003

May 1, 2003

Democracy or Civil War • Internal Issues – Will this be like Japan and Germany after WWII – Or Bosnia

Political Developments? • • Honest Attempts to Build Government Ethnic parties Religious parties Kurds vs. Sunni Arab vs. Shi’ite Arab Shi’ite radicals vs. Shi’ite Moderates Sunni radicals vs. Sunni Moderates OIL

Spring-Summer 2003 Insurgency August 20, 2003: UN Building

Al-Qaeda after Invasion AQ in Iraq • Abu Musab al-Zarqawi • (killed June 2006) • AQ after Iraq (Declassified April 2006 NIE)

Regional Dynamics • Iran • Syria • Al-Qaeda in Iraq

Public Opinion of US Around the World Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project report, “America's Image Slips, But Allies Share U. S. Concerns Over Iran, Hamas, ” 6/13/06: http: //pewglobal. org/reports/display. php? Report. ID=252

US public opinion turns against the war Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003 -2007, March 2007: http: //pewresearch. org/pubs/431/trends-inpublic-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003 -2007

Bush 43 Approval Ratings

Questions for the Next 50 Years (reference only) • How could the US have been so wrong about Iraq WMD? • How could the US have been so wrong about aftermath? • We’re there: what do we do? – The Bush surge – Iraq Study Group – Democratic candidates: Withdrawal Plans

Good News? • Awakening Councils (summer 2006) • US Army/USMC Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 324/MCWP 3 -33. 5) • “The Surge” (2007) General David Petraeus

The Result of Strategy Shift From Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, March 2008 Do. D Report to Congress, p. 18