Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 July

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009

Carbon, Biogeochemistry and Climate: Overview Presented by Ronald Stouffer Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009

GFDL provides critical support for NOAA Goals NOAA’s Climate Goals: • Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond • Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach to management 3

GFDL has added a focus on Climate-Ecosystems interactions These interactions can be broken into 3 parts: 1. The impacts of climate changes on ecosystems 2. The influence of ecosystem changes on climate 3. Interactions between human activities, ecosystems, and climate 4

Humans are impacting the chemical composition of the atmosphere and ocean • What happens to the carbon we emit? – The ocean and land have been taking up about 1/2 of what we emit. – Will this ecosystem service continue? • What is the magnitude of the impacts and feedbacks? • How large are the uncertainties? – Land plant CO 2 fertilization – Southern Ocean uptake 5

An Earth System Model (ESM) closes the carbon cycle Atmospheric circulation and radiation Climate Model Earth System Model Sea Ice Ocean circulation Land physics and hydrology Atmospheric circulation and radiation Allows interactive CO 2 Sea Ice Ocean ecology and biogeochemistry Ocean circulation Plant ecology and land use Land physics and hydrology 6

We have developed three new ESMs AOGCM CM 2. 1 LM 3 V replaces LM 2 Add TOPAZ (ocean biogeochemistry) ESM 2. 1 MOM 4 p 1 replaces MOM 4 p 0 ESM 2 M LM 3 replaces LM 2 Add TOPAZ (ocean biogeochemistry) GOLD replaces MOM 4 p 0 ESM 2 G All models use a 2 atmosphere and 1 ocean 7

ESM Current Status • ESM 2. 1 - running – Backup for ESM 2 M and ESM 2 G – Useful for science projects • Historical + Future projection • Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) • ESM 2 M and ESM 2 G very nearly complete – Starting spin-ups for IPCC runs – Land use changes will also be included – Use of 2 different ocean components allows investigation of heat and carbon uptake uncertainties 8

ESM 2. 1 has produced a successful simulation of climate change • Long 1860 control – Atm p. CO 2 drift less than 10 ppm per 100 yrs – Climate similar to CM 2. 1 • Historical + Future (A 1 B & A 2) runs Purpose: document model, evaluate model performance, investigate impacts, feedbacks and uncertainties Note: No land use included – potential vegetation only 9

ESM 2. 1 forced with CO 2 concentration scenarios 10

ESM 2. 1 Shows Similar Global Surface Air Temperature Response to CM 2. 1 Surface air temperature change (o. C) • Response slightly smaller than CM 2. 1 in historical period • Temperature increase similar magnitude in future 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 11

ESM 2. 1 warming pattern and magnitude very similar to CM 2. 1 Surface air temperature change (K) CM 2. 1 ESM 2. 1 2081 -2100 minus 100 yr average in control 12

Our effort requires a broad scope of collaboration Major collaborators include: • USGS – Milly group • Princeton U – Pacala group Sarmiento group Hedin group • U of New Hampshire – Hurtt group 13

Outline of Talks • Lori Sentman/Elena Shevliakova - Land ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling • Chris Milly - Hydrology, water resources and climate • Kirsten Findell - Climate impacts of land cover change • John Dunne - Ocean biogeochemistry • Charles Stock - Ocean ecosystems and climate change Other contributors include: Krista Dunne, Stefan Gerber, Jasmin John, John Krasting, Sergey Malyshev, Mike Spelman, Marian Westley + students + post-docs 14

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009