Geography 312 Natural Hazards Instructor Ian Hutchinson RCB

Geography 312 (Natural Hazards) Instructor: Ian Hutchinson (RCB 7226) ph: 778 -782 -3232 email: ianh@sfu. ca Course email: geog 312 -all@sfu. ca TAs: Elizabeth Baird & Andrew Perkins

Geography 312 - Lecture 1 § Course outline - schedule, lectures, assignments, - text, grades § Term project § Course themes

Lecture schedule z The course schedule and all the Powerpoint lecture slides are available on the web. Go to: http: //www. sfu. ca/~ianh/geog 312/ z “Thumbnail” versions are available for purchase. z The lectures are NOT taped.

Tutorials/Assignments z To preview the assignments go to the course web site. Printed versions of each assignment will be handed out prior to each tutorial. z Suggested readings for each tutorial are available on the web site as pdf’s z Tutorial grades are based on participation in workshops and discussion groups. Assignments are for educational purposes; they are not graded.

Text, Grading…. • Text - Keller, E. A. , Blodgett, R. H. & Clague, J. J. 2008. “Natural Hazards”. Pearson Canada • Grading Tutorial participation: 20% Term project 30% Midterm exam 20% Final exam 30%*

Term project · Choose a topic (check with TA); · Keep a journal (notes, lists of sources, etc. ); · Prepare a poster in Powerpoint; · Copy the poster to a CD (along with your journal)

The concept of “natural” hazards Definition: “Events associated with normal* geophysical and biological processes that cause death, injury or loss of home, property or income”. * the intensity of the hazard may be influenced by human modifications of the landscape (e. g. deforestation and urbanization influence flood frequency and magnitudes) or climate (e. g. heat waves in urban areas).

Source: Emmanuelle Bournay; UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Concept of hazard thresholds [ ] (e. g. fatalities/damage per earthquake) Deaths 10000 100 10 10 1 1 …………………… Earthquake magnitude 1 10 Damage ($M) 1000

Natural Hazards • From the preceding it follows that: Natural hazards are associated with extreme events in the normal operation of the planet’s geological, hydrological and ecological systems. Natural hazards are limited to inhabited areas (i. e. vulnerable settlements or economic infrastructure).

Concept of vulnerability (e. g. fatalities in two contrasting societies) ? ia? rn fo ali e. g . P 10 . C er u, Ir an 100 e. g Deaths 1000 1 1 …………………… Earthquake magnitude 10

The concept of risk RISK = HAZARD X VULNERABILITY Hazard = natural processes capable of causing death and/or destruction; Vulnerability = social or economic sensitivity to the effects of hazards

Calculating risk Example 1: same hazard; contrasting vulnerabilities Magnitude 6. 5 earthquake in south-central California, on Dec. 22, 2003: 7 dead, ~50 injured because the event occurred in a thinly inhabited area (low risk event) Magnitude 6. 5 earthquake in city of Bam (Iran) on Dec. 26, 2003: ~40, 000 dead, ~30, 000 injured; much of the city destroyed (very high risk event)

Calculating risk Example 2: contrasting hazards; same risk Severe snowfall in the Lower Mainland Annual risk ($) = Pblizzard X Cost* = 0. 1 X $10 M? = $1 M “Tunguska” asteroid impact in the Lower Mainland Annual risk ($) = Pimpact X Cost* = 0. 000001 X $100 G? = $1 M? *Costs = deaths, injuries, building collapse, rescue, cleanup, lost production, rebuilding, etc. ; (often very difficult to assign a dollar value).

Pre. Time • Assess: characterize the hazard regime; • Mitigate: reduce vulnerability; • Prepare: educate; warn; evacuate; Post- • Respond: remove bodies, locate and treat survivors, destroy unstable structures; • Recover: rebuild communities and infrastructure Effectiveness Combating risk: the five steps

Combating risk: roles • Assessment: natural and social scientists, (GEOG 312) • Mitigation: engineers, etc. • Preparation: emergency managers, etc. • Initial Response: medics, etc. • Recovery: planners, etc.

Assessment: types of risk § “physical” = living in a hazardous area § “personal” = your age/gender/education influences your risk § “economic” = poverty reduces your options § “structural” = poor quality buildings and lifelines § “political” = limited access to information and/or resources § “institutional” - your local, state or national government does not enforce regulations all of these may apply!

Hazard assessment Natural scientists analyse the physical risks:

Assessing individual hazards: e. g. hurricanes in Atlantic Canada Damage resulting from the high winds and heavy rain of Hurricane Juan in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Sept. - Oct. 2003 Photos: CBC News archives

Hazard assessment: causes Hurricane Juan, Sept. 28, 2003. Juan was an exceptional storm. Why did it track directly northward?

Hazard assessment: magnitude Juan was forecast to reach Nova Scotia as a 65 to 70 -knot hurricane, but intensified to 85 knots (a “category 2” hurricane). Why? Answer at: http: //www. atl. ec. gc. ca/weather/hurricane/juan/intensity_e. html

Hazard assessment: recurrence Halifax last suffered a direct hurricane strike in 1893. Do hurricanes in the Atlantic provinces therefore recur about once every 100 years on average? Sources of information: • Instrumental records (~100 yr record) • Explorers’ logs, settlers’ diaries (~400 yr record? ) • Micmac oral traditions (? ) • Biological evidence (e. g. downed trees; several centuries? ) • Geological evidence (e. g. overwash deposits; several millennia? )

Hazard assessment: will the future differ from the past? Tropical storms and hurricanes in the NW Atlantic Graph: Munich Re, 2004

Hazard assessment: focusing on place, not process • Case studies of individual hazards do not reveal the hazardousness of a particular place • multiple risks in any area • risk assessment must integrate all of these • = local “geography of danger”

A “geography of danger” for Halifax, Nova Scotia might look like this: High risk Low risk blizzards and ice storms extreme temperatures fogs droughts pests and diseases hurricanes tsunamis

Towards a global geography of danger: the complexity of the task • 20% of Earth’s land surface exposed to severe hazards; • >30% of North American population live in hazard-prone areas; • Many areas (e. g. Indonesia, Taiwan, Guatemala) exposed to multiple severe hazards.

N. B. excludes epidemics

A global geography of danger: natural catastrophes [2005 -7] 2005 2006 Earthquakes, eruptions Storms Droughts, wildfires Floods Source: Munich Re Annual Reports 2007

A geography of danger: natural hazard fatalities [1991 -2005] Annual number of deaths (thousands) Mortality rate / M population Data: EM-Dat

A geography of danger: the known ‘quake volcano flood cyclone landslide drought (e. g. Indonesia [data 1907 -2004]) Source: Center for Hazards and Risk Research, Columbia University

And the unexpected! 2004/12 2005/03 Tsunamis 2006/07 “the global analysis undertaken in these projects is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. ” Arthur Lerner-Lam (Columbia U. )

Nimble systems: anticipating unexpected hazards “On January 17, 1994, the costliest earthquake in the history of the United States struck the Los Angeles region, killing 57 people, leaving 20, 000 homeless, and causing more than $20 billion in damage to homes, public buildings, freeways, and bridges. This magnitude 6. 7 quake occurred 10 miles beneath the town of Northridge on a previously unknown ramp-like ("thrust") fault not visible at the Earth's surface. ” USGS Fact-Sheet 110 -99 ALL the earthquakes in California in the 1990’s occurred on previously unknown faults!

Assessing vulnerabilty Source: The Economist (February 7, 2004)

Vulnerability assessment Social scientists analyze the vulnerability matrix Environmental processes Perception Social impacts Mitigation and education Disaster response

Investigating personal vulnerability: perception London, Ontario Hewitt & Burton (1974)

Investigating personal vulnerability: fatalities by age Age group Indian Ocean tsunami Bay of Bengal storm surge Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Investigating personal vulnerability: fatalities by gender ratio of female: male deaths WHY? differing strength? stamina? cultural behaviours? (e. g. taboos swimming? climbing trees? ) Sumatra India Data from Indian Ocean tsunami (2004) However, the female fatality rate during Hurricane Katrina was only slighter higher (4%) than that of the male population, and this was likely a product of the greater number of women in the over-60’s age group.

Investigating economic vulnerability Deaths from typhoons (1980 -88) wealth = greater preparedness

Investigating economic vulnerability (Photo: Associated Press) (Hurricane Charley, Fla. , 2004; Hurricane Katrina, La. , 2005) poverty = greater exposure to risk; wealth = greater preparedness & more flexible response?

Changing patterns of vulnerability in the developed world

Structural-institutional vulnerability (e. g. Marmara earthquake, Turkey, 1999) ~17, 000 dead; 15% of buildings collapsed near epicentre (CA code but ~70% illegal - amnesty for illegal buildings; little professional liability; corruption ubiquitous; widespread onsite modifications, e. g. extra floors, of approved buildings); communications cut off; nationwide power outage; failure of political leadership. Photos: Damaged buildings in the vicinity of Gölcük

Investigating personal responses: flight or fight? Reactions to the Okanagan Mountain Park fire of August, 2003 • KR (aged 35) said he’d • KR (aged 22) said rebuild in an instant. that she’d never His family’s home was build in a forest razed. “It was a fluke” again after her Kettle …“If you live on the Valley home was ocean and a tidal wave reduced to ash comes, they’d say we shouldn’t live on the Quoted in The Province, Aug. 25, 2003 (p. A 5) ocean. ”

Investigating the agencies: (e. g. post-Hurricane Katrina) § were the evacuation orders effective? § were rescue efforts well-organized? § did everyone in need find the shelters or aid centres? § was aid distribution effective?

Post-disaster recovery? (Hurricane Katrina ) 2006: • population of New Orleans ~ 50% of that prior to hurricane; 45% fewer hospital beds; ~1/3 of schools still shut; • Rents increased by 40% in one year because of housing shortage; suicide rate in city quadrupled; almost 90% of ‘refugees’ in Houston still unemployed; • Port of NO (#1 port in US) operating at less than 50% capacity 3 months after hurricane. August 2008 survey of residents of New Orleans: • 55% feel that there has been little or no progress in rebuilding neighborhoods. • 59% feel that there has been little or no progress in making medical facilities and services more available. • 72% said federal recovery money has been "mostly misspent. " • 58% said NO had a ”very serious" problem with political corruption. • 84% face continuing health problems, and 65% reported some sort of chronic condition or disability, up from 45% in 2006.

Increasing global vulnerability? US $ G Losses from natural disasters (Data: Munich Re, 2001)

Source: Emmanuelle Bournay; UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Information and perception (reported volcanic eruptions, 1860 -1980) Has there been an overall increase in activity?

GEOG 312 Your command of nat. haz information Blessings? Personal vulnerability? - residence, workplace Career path? - community vulnerability Empathy? - global vulnerability 1 …………………. 13 …. . week “How horrible it is to have so many people killed! And what a blessing that one cares for none of them!” Jane Austen writing to her sister on news of the Peninsular War (May 13, 1811)