Geoengineering Methods and Risks Edward P Richards JD

Geoengineering Methods and Risks Edward P. Richards, JD, MPH Clarence W. Edwards Professor of Law LSU Law School, Climate Change Law Project richards@lsu. edu Blog - http: //sites. law. lsu. edu/coast/

Geoengineering Strategies • Climate Engineering • Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) • Solar Radiation Management (SRM) • Alkalization of the ocean (limestone) • Actually adaptation, but considered climate engineering in the literature and research • Adaptation • • Levees Coastal Restoration Riverine Drainage Projects Water Relocation Projects

Natural Climate Engineering Earth's Future Volume 4, Issue 11, pages 523 -531, 24 NOV 2016 DOI: 10. 1002/2016 EF 000447 http: //onlinelibrary. wiley. com/doi/10. 1002/2016 EF 000447/full#eft 2157 -fig-0001

Was breaking the taboo on research on climate engineering via albedo modification a moral hazard, or a moral imperative? Earth's Future 24 FEB 2017 DOI: 10. 1002/2016 EF 000463 http: //onlinelibrary. wiley. com/doi/10. 1002/2016 EF 000463/full#eft 2172 -fig-0001

Why the Explosion of Interest? • Ramp up of projected risks from warming such as sea level rise. • Growing concern with tipping points • Impossibly of creating binding and enforceable international agreements • Limits of the Paris agreement • Growing subnational resistance in the US • Election of Trump • E. P. A. Chief rejects consensus view of climate change

Climate Engineering Strategies Vaughan, Naomi E. , and Timothy M. Lenton. "A review of climate geoengineering proposals. " Climatic change 109. 3 -4 (2011): 745 -790.

Research for assessment, not deployment, of Climate Engineering: The German Research Foundation's Priority Program SPP 1689 Earth's Future Volume 5, Issue 1, pages 128 -134, 24 JAN 2017 DOI: 10. 1002/2016 EF 000446 http: //onlinelibrary. wiley. com/doi/10. 1002/2016 EF 000446/full#eft 2185 -fig-0001

Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering Earth's Future Volume 5, Issue 1, pages 93 -106, 24 JAN 2017 DOI: 10. 1002/2016 EF 000389 http: //onlinelibrary. wiley. com/doi/10. 1002/2016 EF 000389/full#eft 2174 -fig-0002

Indicators and metrics for the assessment of climate engineering Earth's Future Volume 5, Issue 1, pages 49 -58, 13 JAN 2017 DOI: 10. 1002/2016 EF 000449 http: //onlinelibrary. wiley. com/doi/10. 1002/2016 EF 000449/full#eft 2165 -fig-0001

What are the risks? Vaughan, Naomi E. , and Timothy M. Lenton. "A review of climate geoengineering proposals. " Climatic change 109. 3 -4 (2011): 745 -790.

What are the Geopolitical Issues? Earth's Future Volume 4, Issue 11, pages 523 -531, 24 NOV 2016 DOI: 10. 1002/2016 EF 000447 http: //onlinelibrary. wiley. com/doi/10. 1002/2016 EF 000447/full#eft 2157 -fig-0002

What are the Geopolitical Risks? • Unilateral action • What is the appropriate forum for coordinating and disciplining geoengineering strategies with extranational effects? • Winners and Losers • Is China the best candidate for unilateral action? • What if the monsoon fails in India? • Capture by the Military Industrial Complex • There are huge contracts at issue • The national security card trumps all opposition

Geoengineering for Adaptation

Types of Projects • Protection from climate related extreme weather events • Levees • Coastal Restoration • Riverine Drainage Projects • Water Management • Dams and river reengineering • Water distribution systems • We will focus on geoengineering for extreme weather events

Levees and Riverine Drainage • Limited risk envelope of extreme weather to justify the CBA (both money and land use costs) for construction • 100/500 year events • Limited adjustment for climate and other anthropogenic risk enhancers • Predictable megaproject risks • Overstated benefits and understated costs • Problems in large scale quality control • Extreme difficulty in long term maintenance of performance specifications

The Escalator/Levee Effect • Shift from high frequency, low severity flooding to low frequency, high severity flooding. • Channel contraction increases height of the flood • Channel confinement reduces alterative path flows • Adaptation to frequent, low severity flooding • Low height building elevation • Water resistant construction • Low population density • Adaptation to low frequency, high severity flooding • High population density • No adaptation, leading to catastrophic losses during events.

Coastal Restoration

Dune Restoration – Outer Banks

Living Shoreline - Louisiana

Marsh and Land Creation

Why is Coastal Restoration Impossible? • Coasts retreat inland during sea level rise • Deep paleoclimate/geology record • Current rates of sea level rise are enough to force retreat, and projected rates exceed previous natural rates. • Deltas follow sea level • Retreat inland during rising sea level – all are about 6 k years old • Go to the continental shelf during glacial maximum • Coastal restoration denies the effects of climate change.

The Special Problem of Subsidence • Deltas subside as part of the natural cycle • Dams and levees reduce the sediment to fill the increased accommodation space • Faults create hot spots of subsidence, hastening the conversion to open water • Ground water pumping exacerbates subsidence • Levees on the delta exacerbate subsidence behind the delta • Subsidence increases relative sea level rise to extreme levels.

The Risks of Coastal Restoration • The escalator effect from creating a false sense of security, especially for wetlands creation, which does not reduce major storm surge • Hastened destruction of the existing ecology systems • Huge carbon footprint for dredging projects • Most of the cost is fuel • All are must be continually repeated • Shifts money away from real protection and long term relocation.