Generic logic models for research technology development deployment

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Generic logic models for research, technology development, deployment, and innovation Collected by Gretchen B

Generic logic models for research, technology development, deployment, and innovation Collected by Gretchen B Jordan, 360 Innovation LLC February 2015 Contact: gretchen. jordan@Comcast. net

Table of Contents (diagrams and references) Technology and Market Readiness Research, Development and Deployment

Table of Contents (diagrams and references) Technology and Market Readiness Research, Development and Deployment Program -Federal Research, Development and Deployment Program - State Deployment and Diffusion Innovation (R&D through Adoption) Health Sciences Impact Framework Early Market and Supply Chain Effects Basic Science - Program and Project Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCo. R) 3 6 9 12 16 20 23 27 30 2

EXAMPLE 1. RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY/ DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT PROGRAMS U. S. DOE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND

EXAMPLE 1. RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY/ DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT PROGRAMS U. S. DOE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY (EERE) 2007 Jordan, G. and J. Mortensen. Logic Models for a Diverse Portfolio of Research, Technology, and Deployment Programs, Presentation at American Evaluation Association Annual Conference, November 8, 2007 http: //comm. eval. org/researchtechnologyanddevelopmenteval/tigresources/new-item/newitem 2#AEARTD 2007 3

Example 1. U. S. DOE EERE Proposed measurement framework includes 5 inter-related areas that

Example 1. U. S. DOE EERE Proposed measurement framework includes 5 inter-related areas that will provide useful data Draft 08/03/07 Program Management External Factors Technology Readiness Market Readiness External Factors Outcomes & Impacts (Feedback loops not shown) 4

Example 1. Proposed Generic Measures for U. S. DOE/EERE categorize R&D and market readiness

Example 1. Proposed Generic Measures for U. S. DOE/EERE categorize R&D and market readiness Draft 08/03/07 Program Management Portfolio balance Stakeholder involvement Performance-based planning Human capital Program infrastructure Fiscal responsibility Technology Readiness RD&D capabilities/infrastructure R&D Advances (non-stage gate) RD&D stage -Preliminary investigation -Detailed investigation -Development -Validation -Commercial launch RD&D cycle time Technology characteristics Breadth of applications Knowledge transfer & utilization Options value of technology Quality implementation Efficiency Continuous improvement External Factors Market Readiness Knowledge infrastructure • Access, adequacy of tech info (mkt assess, decision support tools, websites, general ed. ) Policy/Government infrastructure • Supportiveness of codes, standards, regulations, incentives, physical infrastructure Business infrastructure • Manufacturing, distribution, installation, and servicing capacities • Financial capacities • Economic attractiveness (NPV, IRR, ROI) to supply chain; competitive advantage End user • Visible demonstrations of technology/practice • Economic attractiveness (NPV, IRR, ROI, payback) to end user; relative advantage State, local, other federal policies and incentives Economics (Material & labor costs, energy prices, etc. ) Social/Cultural norms (preferences, time horizon, etc. ) Technology Attractiveness – Market Acceptance Ultimate Outcomes Market size & share Energy benefits Environmental benefits Economic benefits Security benefits Spillovers in market 5 Characteristics of competing & supporting technologies

EXAMPLE 2. RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY/ DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT PROGRAMS U. S. DOE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND

EXAMPLE 2. RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY/ DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT PROGRAMS U. S. DOE ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY (EERE) 2004 Jordan, G. , John Mortensen, John Reed, George Teather. Using Logic Models in Managing Performance of Research and Technology Programs, IAMOT 13 th International Conference on Management of Technology, April 4, 2004 6

(2004) Example 2: EERE’s draft logic model links strategies/activities to goals Inputs Activities Federal,

(2004) Example 2: EERE’s draft logic model links strategies/activities to goals Inputs Activities Federal, state & local government funding Private funding, Personnel, Facilities, Past R&D results Program planning & assessment Develop & maintain program infrastructure Conduct research Develop technology Demonstrate technology Developing government & market infrastructure Deploy technology Benefit estimates, Priorities identified, Budget requests, Program plans Public & private labs and test beds, Knowledge bases, Trained S&T personnel, Partnerships New knowledge, proof of concepts as represented by data, publications For Programs, CFO, OMB, Congress Programs, partners Outcomes Program funding in appropriate areas; Efficiency, Fiscal responsibility Relevant S&T expertise, capabilities and facilities to deliver programs Performance analysis Test, improve, & validate commercial- scale technology, Give industry hands-on experience Codes and standards, Trained personnel, Audits tools, State programs Government purchases, Information disseminated, Early seeding of technologies R&D community R&D Community, Industry Relevant industries Relevant markets Potential purchasers Concepts & designs with possible applications, Knowledge spill-over Potentially commercializable technologies to replace existing or fill a system need Investment by industry in innovative or advanced commercial products Favorable policies, capable delivery channels for EERE products Widespread adoption of EERE products; More productive use of energy National R&D capabilities, including options if circumstances change Technology prototypes -initial -intermediate -commercial Political environment Quality of R&D proposals Feedback Loops Outputs External Influences Unpredictable nature of R&D Cost and performance of competing technologies Industry willingness to take risk Energy prices Spin-off products and their associated benefits New products & businesses Economic, security, and environmental benefits Technology leadership State of the economy Government policies and regulations 7

(2004) Example 2: Each box in the logic model is a potential measurement area

(2004) Example 2: Each box in the logic model is a potential measurement area External Influences Inputs Activities Federal funding (millions of nominal $) Private funding (millions of nominal $) Program planning & assessment Develop & maintain program infrastructure Conduct research Develop technology Federal personnel (FTEs) # of RD&D facilities Demonstrate technology Developing government & market infrastructure Cost and performance of competing technologies (varies by technology) Deploy technology Oil prices ($/barrel) NG prices ($/tcf) Feedback Loops % programs w/benefit estimates Outputs For Outcomes % program w/program plans Programs, CFO, OMB, Congress # of partnerships Programs, partners # of journal articles # of presentations # prototypes -initial -intermediate -commercial Prototype cost & performance # and % of commercial- scale technologies validated # codes and standards, # personnel trained, # audits, # state programs # of tech’s purchased by gov’t, # of materials disseminated, # of website hits R&D community R&D Community, Industry Relevant industries Relevant markets Potential purchasers # journal article citations # of potentially commercializable technologies # of innovative or advanced commercial products with improved cost & performance # of recommendations for using advanced commercial products and practices # and % of advanced commercial products by adoption stage # of technology spinoffs Energy saved (quad. Btu), GW of add’l RE capacity, Expenditure savings ($) Carbon saved (mmtce) Electricity prices (c/k. Wh) Coal prices ($/ton) GDP (billion 1996 $) RE production tax credit (c/k. Wh) EE/RE tax credits ($) CAFÉ standards (mpg) 8 Vehicle & power plant emission standards (varies by pollutant)

EXAMPLE 3. RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY/ DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT PROGRAMS NEW YORK ENERGY R&D AUTHORITY Albert,

EXAMPLE 3. RESEARCH, TECHNOLOGY/ DEVELOPMENT AND DEPLOYMENT PROGRAMS NEW YORK ENERGY R&D AUTHORITY Albert, Scott, Victoria S. Engel, Gretchen Jordan, Lori Megdal, Jane Peters, 2004. Using Program Theory And Logic To Improve Design and Likelihood of Real Market Change - Experience With A State Public Benefits Program, ” accepted for presentation and publication at the ACEEE Annual Summer Buildings Study. http: //aceee. org/files/proceedings/2004/data/papers/SS 04_Panel 6_Paper 01. pdf 9

Inputs: Funds, staff, allies, market knowledge New York Energy $mart. SM Portfolio Basic Logic

Inputs: Funds, staff, allies, market knowledge New York Energy $mart. SM Portfolio Basic Logic Activities NYSERDA Evaluate/select technology opportunities Supply-side Research & develop new technologies Markets Actors Multiple stakeholders Researchers Investors Manufacturers Markets/Infrastructure Coordinate, provide information, incentives to businesses & institutions Energy businesses, managers Short and Intermediate term Outcomes Deliberate portfolio mix Progress tracked & used in planning Whole is bigger than the parts Credible data Demonstrated technology performance More investment in developing technology Longer term Outcomes Efficient, relevant projects with measurable impact Increased knowledge & availability of energy and environmental technologies External Influences: Economic realities impacting new investment in technologies & energy improvements in some sectors, energy prices, effect of changing political climates, legislation & regulation, cost & performance changes in technologies that support or compete with those targeted by NYSERDA, existence and activities of numerous other public & non-profit organizations promoting similar objectives Other related energy initiatives Increased knowledge, skills, profitability, certification Expanded delivery channels Favorable standards, rules Coordinated initiatives and lower transaction costs Sale, adoption, service of technologies in a profitable business and favorable policy infrastructure DRAFT 3/25/2004 Demand-side Promote, provide incentives to users to adopt new technologies Low Income Residential, Small Business Commercial, Municipal & Industrial Institutional customers Identified opportunities, Increased awareness, understanding, branding Changes in behavior and technology adoption Increased perceived value Sustainable widespread demand for more efficient energy services and renewable technologies Public Benefits Reduced energy use for all customer sectors Increased system reliability and reduced peak load Reduced environmental impact of energy production and use Increased competition and consumers and businesses saved money 10

NYSERDA R&D Logic - DRAFT Inputs: Funds, staff, NYSERDA competencies, partnerships Activities Product Development

NYSERDA R&D Logic - DRAFT Inputs: Funds, staff, NYSERDA competencies, partnerships Activities Product Development Research for Policy Study to inform policy & R&D community Outputs Draft 07/29/2004 NYSERDA Select & Manage R&D Projects to: -drive portfolio changes over time to respond to current needs, and -Provide public benefits White papers, workshops; Policy-relevant research Informed policies & Outcomes programs; R&D opportunities & standards identified, publicized Develop new or improved product Test & improve products New knowledge: -papers, articles -data -Intermediate scale prototypes - Performance/cost specifications improving - Data from tests - Establish standards - Hands on experience (industry) -Feedback to R&D Dissemination builds common knowledge base -Lab prototypes -Future R&D & product options -Investment/interest growing -Commercial scale product developed -Potential demonstrated Study, Prove Concepts Product proven/ introduced in market Demonstration Pre-deployment Demonstrate products, inform markets Educate, provide incentives to supply & delivery - Data from tests in -Training, certification different context -Production incentives - Feedback to R&D & -Innovative designs policy makers -Other barriers - Visibility & data lowered from showcases Producers, consumers, policy makers see value Business infrastructure supports the product Policy and Product development and pre-deployment process (5 -10 years) - New - Accelerated - Expanded Knowledge for future R&D and products Firms have credibility & market infrastructure is supportive Products manufactured as replacement, stand alone, or part of system and purchased by early adopters Environmental benefits Energy benefits - generation, energy/load management, efficient use Economic benefits -cost of compliance, NY jobs External Influences: Cost, Performance of existing technologies; Industry willingness to take risks; Uncertainty of R&D; Energy prices; Government policies 11

EXAMPLE 4. LOGIC OF TECHNOLOGY (OR PRACTICE) DEPLOYMENT (DIFFUSION IN MARKET) Reed, John H.

EXAMPLE 4. LOGIC OF TECHNOLOGY (OR PRACTICE) DEPLOYMENT (DIFFUSION IN MARKET) Reed, John H. , and Gretchen Jordan. 2007. Impact Evaluation Framework for Technology Deployment Programs, U. S. DOE, July. http: //www 1. eere. energy. gov/analysis/pdfs/impact_framework_tech_deploy_2007_main. pdf See also Reed, John H, G. Jordan. 2007. Using Systems Theory and Logic Models to Define Integrated Outcomes and Performance Measures in Multi-program Settings, in Research Evaluation, Volume 16 Number 3 September. 12

EERE deployment programs typically undertake these activities Fund and Promote Adoption Build Infrastructure Analyze

EERE deployment programs typically undertake these activities Fund and Promote Adoption Build Infrastructure Analyze and Plan Develop Technical Information Assist Public Entities Assist Businesses Outreach and Partner Assist and Fund Purchases Provide Tools and Technical Assistance Reviewing and Reporting Partnering with or targeting these audiences Technical and other personnel in laboratories, government, firms, colleges, universities Federal, state, and local agencies and nongovernmental organizations Investors and financiers, manufacturers, distributors, retailers, architects, engineers, trades people End user organizations, firms and individuals Create and enhance products, create and align market channels, enhance marketing, and develop installation and support infrastructures Adopt, replicate, institutionalize, and enculturate energy efficient and clean energy supply practices and technologies To achieve the following intermediate outcomes Market and product knowledge Create, advance, and package market and technical knowledge to make energy efficiency more accessible and implementable Change the policies, structure and operation of public entities to smooth the advance of energy efficiency and clean energy supply New knowledge, alternative institutional arrangements and processes, new product and service ideas, new opportunities, That produce the following long-term outcomes or impacts Reduced energy use and emissions, increased clean energy supply, and enhanced productivity and global security 13 Reed and Jordan

Generic Logic of Federal Technology Demonstration and Deployment Programs Inputs: Federal funds, staff, state

Generic Logic of Federal Technology Demonstration and Deployment Programs Inputs: Federal funds, staff, state & local funds & staff, existing technologies, partnerships Develop Analyze & Tech information Activities Plan Build Infrastructure Assist Public Assist Organizations businesses Fund & Promote Adoption Outreach & Assist & fund Provide tools & Partner purchase tech assistance Draft 8/23/05 Reed and Jordan Reviewing, Reporting Delivery Mechanisms Used: web site, mailings, one-to-one, partner networks, etc. ) Descriptio Output ns s of Markets, Needs, Programs Plans For or reflect With dynamic markets Short & intermediat e term Outcomes Packaged information - About gaps - Filling gaps - Experts, staff - Stakeholders - Program activities Broadcast - Guidance, models - Funds - Coordination - Users trained - Assessments - Demonstratio ns - Gov’t staff - Manufacturers - Builders - Commercial, Industrial, - NGOs - Retailers, Utilities - A&E firms Transportation - Intermediari- Developers - Decision makers - Residential, Low income groups es - Resource Sector, Electric Power - Cities / states; Purchasing Contagion agents Innovators Early Adopters Early and late majority Awareness of resources, program and eere opportunities Seeking more information / persuasion [Many interactions are not shown. ] Ultimate Outcomes Product value accepted - Relative advantage - Compatibility, Complexity, - Trialability, Decide to Observability participate in a implement program practices / measures - Partnerships - Messages out - Purchases - Financial assistance - Performance data collected, stored - Products Feedback to validated program Consumers assured of quality External Influences : Low prices of oil, gas and electricity; Unfavorabl e regulations; Institutional change Age & Program • Incorporate into standard condition of participants operating procedures existing emulate changes • Increased knowledge, equipment; External promotion & advocacy Existing households § Government policy, codes, technology /facilities/firms programs support adoption infrastructu observe & emulate § Product, Sales, Service are re; changes Widespread available, high quality, profitable Utility acceptance of § Production & transaction costs restructurin decline product g; Energy Saved; Clean Energy Used Sustained Changes in Markets Related 13 Serving underserved, energy security, other non-economic benefitsstate Changed practices directly due to program - Finance/ contract - Design/ specification - Implement - Operation / maintenance Value confirmed

A detailed deployment logic model 15 John Reed

A detailed deployment logic model 15 John Reed

EXAMPLE 5. LOGIC OF INNOVATION (R&D, LAUNCH AND MARKET UPTAKE) Jordan, G. 2010. A

EXAMPLE 5. LOGIC OF INNOVATION (R&D, LAUNCH AND MARKET UPTAKE) Jordan, G. 2010. A Theory-Based Logic Model for Innovation Policy and Evaluation, Research Evaluation, 19(4), October 2010, 263 -274. 16

 Example 5. A Systems Logic Model of the R&D to Adoption Life Cycle

Example 5. A Systems Logic Model of the R&D to Adoption Life Cycle Technology PUSH Information Infrastructure Market Research Agenda Setting Science Base, R&D Capacity Basic & Applied Research R&D Launch, Productio n Business Infrastructure Adoption Development research System influences, effects G. Jordan, November 2011 Manufacturing & Quality Research System influences, effects Technical Infrastructure Government Infrastructure / Policies End User Demand End Outcomes Market PULL 16

Example 5: DOE Renewable Energy Do these groups transfer knowledge? Research on adv. Semiconductor

Example 5: DOE Renewable Energy Do these groups transfer knowledge? Research on adv. Semiconductor and nano-structured materials Basic research R&D on desired characteristics, then R&D to increase reliability so 30 year Utilization & warranties could be offered Behavioral research Research on PV module Quality recycling, waste disposal, Research, usage of toxic materials to Product protect workers refinement R&D Research on PV devices utilizing semiconducting colloidal nanostructured… Science Base, R&D Capacity Knowledge of Nano science & technology Teamed research on generic, industry wide R&D problems Manufacturing getting volume up, costs down research Applied research Development research, Validation PV Pre-incubator project helps small businesses transition from concept verification to tech. development Generic & Infratechnologies Built production process off existing wire saw technology; Fund an independent testing facility that also provides 18 reference cells

Example 5: DOE Renewable Energy Do these groups transfer knowledge? Developed curriculum and installed

Example 5: DOE Renewable Energy Do these groups transfer knowledge? Developed curriculum and installed PV on school Information roofs; codified & published Infrastructure best practices; Provide model legislation Product characteristics: -relative advantage Launch, (operating cost) Production -compatability (use for hot water, etc. ) -complexity Generic & (simple drop in to roof) Infratech-trialability nologies (no harder than conventional) -observability (green pricing) Develop proven financing techniques; training/certification for installers Business Infrastructure End User Demand Fund showcases for people to view real application; Make aware of benefits Government Policies States require use of renewables; Block grants to states for energy plans; Simplify permitting; Consistent interconnection End Outcomes, System effects Reduced pollution and dependence on imported oil. DOE R&D accelerated development of PV modules 19 by 12 years

EXAMPLE 6. IMPACTS OF HEALTH RESEARCH – CANADIAN ACADEMY OF HEALTH SCIENCES FRAMEWORK Canadian

EXAMPLE 6. IMPACTS OF HEALTH RESEARCH – CANADIAN ACADEMY OF HEALTH SCIENCES FRAMEWORK Canadian Academy of Health Sciences, Panel on Return on Investment in Health Research. (2009). Making an impact: A preferred framework and indicators to measure returns on investment in health research. Ottawa (ON), Canada: Canadian Academy of Health Sciences (CAHS). Retrieved from: http: //www. cahs-acss. ca/wpcontent/uploads/2011/09/ROI_Full. Report. pdf See also Graham KER, Chorzempa HL, Valentine PA, Magnan J. . (2012). Evaluating health research impact: Development and implementation of the Alberta Innovates – Health Solutions impact framework. Research Evaluation, 21(5): 354 -367. 20

Example 6: The Canadian Academy of Health Sciences Logical Framework for Understanding the Impacts

Example 6: The Canadian Academy of Health Sciences Logical Framework for Understanding the Impacts of Health Research Global Research Knowledge Pool Interactions/Feedback Health Research • Biomedical • Clinical • Health services • Population and Public health • Cross cutting Health Industry Other Industries Government Research Agenda Public Information, Groups Healthcare Appropriateness, Access, etc. (Population) Health Status and Function For Prevention, Diagnosis, Treatment, and Post Treatment Determinants of health (social, environmental, etc. ) Well Being And Economic Prosperity Research Capacity Modified from CAHS Report on ROI for Health research available at www. cahs-acss. ca/making-an-impact-apreferred-framework-and-ind. . . 21

Example 6: Detail Research results… That Influence decisions that change… Canadian Public/ private Health

Example 6: Detail Research results… That Influence decisions that change… Canadian Public/ private Health Research That Influ ences decisions that chan ge… Health Status, Well Being, Economic conditions • Biomedical • Clinical • Health services • Population and Public health • Integrated research Research Capacity -Human capital ---student & faculty career paths -Absorptive capacity -Cross fertilization of ideas/research (joint planning, cross functional/multi disciplinary teams, levels of communication ) Research Decision Making At levels of Academic, Institution, -Funders (Industry, Government, Foundations) R&D agendas/investment -Tackling harder more complex problems Knowledge Pool Consultation/ Collaborations Global Research Health Industry -Products/Drugs -Product/drug development & testing -Services, databases -Practitioners’ behavior -Clinical/managers guidelines -Institutional Policies (hospitals, etc. ) -Social care practices Other Industries -Products/services -Built environment -Work environment Government Interventions at multiple levels related to health care, social care, Public health -Resource allocation -Regulation -Policy -Intervention programs -taxes & subsidies -Education curriculum Public Information, Groups --Advocacy groups -Media -Attitudes -Knowledge of -Confidence in research data That affect health risk factors, healthcare, and health status Healthcare System Quality for Cost (appropriateness, acceptability, competence, continuity, effectiveness) and Accessibility -Adherence to guidelines -Reduced errors --hospital accreditation Intermediate Health Outcomes Prevention and Treatment For disease, illness, injury, or progressive condition -Prevention -Diagnosis/prognosis -Treatment/palliation -Post-treatment Population Health Risks -Age & genetics -Personal behavior -Social determinants (education, networks, etc. ) -Environmental factors -Built environment --social environment (Population) Health Status and Function (disease prevalence and burden) Well Being And Economic Prosperity External Influences: 22

EXAMPLE 7. LOGIC OF ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGY INTRODUCTION IN U. S. SUPPLY CHAINS Jordan, Gretchen,

EXAMPLE 7. LOGIC OF ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGY INTRODUCTION IN U. S. SUPPLY CHAINS Jordan, Gretchen, Jonathan Mote, Rosalie Ruegg, Thomas Choi, and Angela Becker-Dippmann. 2014. A Framework for Evaluating R&D Impacts and Supply Chain Dynamics Early in a Product Life Cycle: Looking inside the black box of innovation, prepared for the U. S. Department of Energy. http: //www 1. eere. energy. gov/analysis/pdfs/evaluating_rd_impacts_supply_chain_dynamics. pdf 23

A Framework for Assessing Accelerated Product Innovation, Manufacturing, Early Market Growth U. S. Global

A Framework for Assessing Accelerated Product Innovation, Manufacturing, Early Market Growth U. S. Global Competitiveness in Manufacturing Energy Technologies; National Energy and Economic Benefits Ultimate Impacts O 3 Interim Effects Outcome Objectives Stronger product value chain C 1 Added capabilities – technical and market Inputs Growth in US manufacturing O 1 Accelerated new product commercialization, adoption C 6 Short & Intermediate Conditions for Progress O 2 Capabilities for continued innovation C 2 C 5 Added value to characteristics of new product Available capital for R&D, scale up, production C 3 C 7 Stronger product supply chain Supportive business practices, gov’t. policies External Influences: Technical. Information/ Networks, Economic, Policy C 4 Stronger networks, knowledge exchange EERE Investments/Activities and Collaborations (Technical, Information/Relationships, , Business, Policy) 24 DOE/EERE 2013

Detailed Logic of Accelerating Technology Introduction in U. S. Supply Chains Ultimate Impacts Broader

Detailed Logic of Accelerating Technology Introduction in U. S. Supply Chains Ultimate Impacts Broader Intermediate Outcomes U. S. Global Competitiveness in Manufacturing Energy Technologies; National Energy and Economic Benefits Capabilities for Continuing Innovation Intellectual property captured in an area. Technical leadership in the area. Companies and universities strong in R&D infrastructure, knowledge diffusion. Favorable standards, regulations. Leverage capital available at multiple points. Proximity of R&D, firms, collective action. Stronger Product Value Chain -small businesses are involved -challenges such as retooling met -new business models adopted -firms add to/modify product line Short & Intermediate Conditions for Progress Added Technical & Market Capabilities -existing research, tools, techniques -technical challenges solved -standards, test facilities, -market knowledge, strategies. EERE Investments, Inputs DOE/EERE 2013 Technical Fund R&D & test facilities. Develop & provide measurement tools. Accelerated Commercialization, Adoption New products, features available, including energy efficient, environment friendly; measure of their value added. New production features available (e. g. , mobile, flexible, lower costs of transport). Faster time to development, market. Added Value to a New Product or Process -adaptation of existing, scale up, volume -new, improved performance, -cost, compatibility Availability of Capital at Multiple Stages -able to raise private capital; user facilities -early adoption by government Business Support validation, demonstration. Co fund start up firms, production facilities. Growth in U. S. Manufacturing Domestic production of components, end products in a supply chain. Increased production due to advantages of using a new process. Emergence of new markets where U. S. firms are competitive. Sales, employment. market share. Stronger Supply Chain -incentives to enter, to stay -market, customer orientation -maturity, ability to deliver, on time -flexibility, adaptability, robustness Supportive Business Practices, Policies -appropriate focus, network connections -remaining flexible -checking potential market regularly -favorable policies (tax, regulation) Government Supportive standards, government policy. Government procurement (early adopter). External Influences Stronger Networks, Knowledge Exchange -connectedness within value chain (e. g. , with sources of capabilities), in Supply Chains -network characteristics (strategic partnerships, structure, ties, roles) Information/Relationships Provide technical/ market analysis, databases. Facilitate networking, publicprivate partnership. 25

EERE Investment in Lithium-ion Battery Plants in the U. S. Global Competitiveness in Manufacturing

EERE Investment in Lithium-ion Battery Plants in the U. S. Global Competitiveness in Manufacturing Energy Technologies National Energy and Economic Benefits Ultimate Impacts Growth in US manufacturing of li-ion batteries Capabilities for continued battery innovation Broader Intermediat e Outcomes Accelerated battery commercialization, use in electric cars Stronger value chain: (materials, coating, binding, container) Short to Intermediate Conditions for Progress Added capabilities (Fund R&D; alignment of standards) Inputs Added value: More power durability, range of operating temperature Capital available for R&D, scale up, production Stronger supply chain: (U. S. manufacturers, U. S. suppliers operating) Business practices: (require manf. flexibility for inputs) New partnerships bid for funds, work together External Influences: Small market for EVs; new firms with few financial reserves; Imbalance in relevant global policies EERE Investments Co-Fund R&D; Co fund production facilities in U. S. 26 DOE/EERE 2013

EXAMPLE 8. LOGIC OF BASIC SCIENCE PROGRAM AND PROJECTS Related discussion: Lee, Russell, Jordan,

EXAMPLE 8. LOGIC OF BASIC SCIENCE PROGRAM AND PROJECTS Related discussion: Lee, Russell, Jordan, Gretchen, Leiby, Paul N. , Owens, Brandon, Wolf, James L. 2003. “Estimating the Benefits of Government-Sponsored Energy R&D, ” Research Evaluation, Vol. 12 No. 3 (Dec. ): 189 -195. 27

Logic Model of a Program of Basic Research (U. S. DOE DRAFT -Unofficial) ACTIVITIES

Logic Model of a Program of Basic Research (U. S. DOE DRAFT -Unofficial) ACTIVITIES Identify/ Direct/Redirect resources to important questions & needs OUTPUTS & OUTCOMES Gather/ Build/ Maintain/ Provide resources in select areas Students work with DOE or elsewhere Construct, operate, facilities Perform or Have Performed high quality research Facility use - DOE & others Propose; Experiment, theorize; Collect & analyze data Prove, disprove; Theories, techniques developed & solutions generated Robust S&T workforce Robust S&T Facilities & Equipment Capacity/Agility G. . Jordan 05/13/2002 New structure, new ideas, tools, fields, Opportunities for use by others Disseminate/ Seek Review/ Feedback research plans, findings Inform and be informed by collaborators, peers, potential users Strong communities of practice Transitions – findings used Significant Contributions to DOE Mission, National Needs, Society 28

The Logic of a Basic Research Project Manage Resources: expenditures by types of activities,

The Logic of a Basic Research Project Manage Resources: expenditures by types of activities, skilled staff, core competencies; environment for quality research, soundness of research planning and evaluation, use scientific method Activities Outcomes and Results Identify and state the problem Growing consensus on problems Develop, test and build research tools New techniques to research problems Do research and report findings Growing convergence on solutions to problems Exchange knowledge in papers, conferences, etc. Apply ideas of others in research New disciplines Reach targeted partners and customers; other researchers, laboratories, students, universities, applied researchers and technology developers, industry; attendees at conferences, readers of publications New insights and knowledge [Feedback loops are not shown] G. Jordan 1996 Potential impacts of research Use in R&D or Commercialization Actual impacts of the research 29

EXAMPLE 9. NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION'S EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM TO STIMULATE COMPETITIVE RESEARCH (EPSCOR) Evaluation of

EXAMPLE 9. NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION'S EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM TO STIMULATE COMPETITIVE RESEARCH (EPSCOR) Evaluation of the National Science Foundation's Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCo. R): Final Report Brian L. Zuckerman, Rachel A. Parker, Thomas W. Jones, Brian Q. Rieksts, Ian D. Simon, Gilbert J. Watson III, Elaine A. Sedenberg, Sherrica S. Holloman, Ryan M. Whelan, Lucas M. Pratt, Christopher T. Clavin, Abigail R. Azari, Mitchell J. Ambrose, Jessica N. Brooks, and Pamela B. Rambow. IDA Paper P-5221, December 2014 30

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