General de Brigade Analysis of the fire tables
General de Brigade Analysis of the fire tables for Musketry and Artillery in Gde. B 2 reveals an anomaly, particularly in the Artillery table. Intuitive expectation is that for any given modifier value the range of outcomes should be a single peaked distribution. The Musketry tables do produce this sort of effect, though they are ‘chunky’ in failing to discriminate according to the number firing as finely as might be desired. The Artillery tables however produce anomalous distributions of results for larger positive modifiers (i. e. when using canister). This can be seen visually in the charts that follow.
Musketry Visual analysis of Musketry table results for modifiers from – 4 to +4 showing probability of each casualty level outcome for different size of units firing. Vertical axis 0 -36 is probability of outcome. Axis with labels S 1 to S 14 indicates size of unit firing S 1=3, S 2=7, S 3=10, S 4 =14 etc to S 14 =49. Bottom axis indicates outcome as 1=no casualties, 2=1 casualty etc.
Musketry Modifier -4
Musketry Modifier -3
Musketry Modifier -2
Musketry Modifier -1
Musketry Modifier 0
Musketry Modifier +1
Musketry Modifier +2
Musketry Modifier +3
Musketry Modifier +4
Proposed new Musketry tables New table 1 produces results which are even ‘chunkier’ than the existing table and discriminate even less between smaller numbers of figures firing. The ‘chunkiness’ can be seen by comparing the next chart with the preceding series. New table 2 retains similar discrimination to the present table between effect for smaller numbers firing but also changes the shape of the distribution of outcomes significantly The equivalent existing table is repeated in the next sequence for ease of comparison.
Modifier 0 Musketry – New Table No 1
Modifier 0 Musketry – New Table No 2
Modifier 0 Musketry – Gde. B 2 table at present
The table below gives a comparison of the expected outcomes for the various musketry firing table options with no modifier in effect.
Artillery Visual analysis of Artillery table results for modifiers from – 6 to +7 showing probability of each casualty level outcome for different number of guns firing. Vertical axis 0 -36 is probability of outcome. Axis with labels S 1 to S 14 indicates size of unit firing S 1=1 gun, S 2=2 guns, S 3=3, S 4 =4 etc. Bottom axis indicates outcome as 1=no casualties, 2=1 casualty etc.
Modifier -6 Artillery
Modifier -5 Artillery
Modifier -4 Artillery
Modifier -3 Artillery
Modifier -2 Artillery
Modifier -1 Artillery
Modifier 0 Artillery
Modifier +1 Artillery
Modifier +2 Artillery
Modifier +3 Artillery
Modifier +4 Artillery
Modifier +5 Artillery
Modifier +6 Artillery
Modifier +7 Artillery
A dice based alternative This option will not suit all players but it has the merit of producing outcomes which are more sensitive to the number of figures / guns firing and yet expected outcomes are very close to the existing Gde. B ones. The shapes of the expected outcome graphs below evidence the smoother gradation and loss of ‘chunkiness’ compared with existing tables. Infantry firing Artillery firing
The graph below comparing expected casualties under the Gde. B and die roll methods gives an example of the difference between the approaches.
Dice based option: 2 d 6 plus a number of average dice thrown to determine Gde. B casualties The tables following show many average dice might be thrown with 2 d 6 to establish casualties in Gde. B. Whilst shown in tables, there is also a simple rule shown for working out the number of dice to throw. With experience this should become fairly intuitive. The sections in the tables without number entries relate to situations where only the 2 d 6 are thrown. Note the key to the colour codings.
Prepared by Colin Alsbury Please address any questions or comments to me at colin. alsbury@btinternet. com or air them within the Gde. B forum. © August 2009
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