GCOS Adaptation and Development UNFCCC COP 13 SBSTA

GCOS, Adaptation, and Development UNFCCC COP 13 / SBSTA 27 BALI, INDONESIA CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND THE ADAPTATION AGENDA Dr. John Zillman Chairman, GCOS Steering Committee

GCOS, Adaptation, and Development The GCOS Mission To ensure that the data required to meet the needs of users for climate information are obtained and made available for: l Climate system monitoring; l Climate change detection and attribution; l Operational climate prediction on seasonal-to-interannual timescales; l Research to improve understanding, modelling and prediction of the climate system; l Applications and services for sustainable economic development; l Assessment of the impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, natural climate variability and human-induced climate change; l Meeting the requirement of the UNFCCC and other international conventions and agreements. Global, long-term, high-quality, sustainable, reliable, …

GCOS, Adaptation, and Development GCOS as a System of Systems WCRP/GEWEX BSRN WMO WWW Global Observing System WMO (GOS) Atmosphere Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Atmospheric Composition Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) IOC/ UNESCO Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Ocean Other FAO Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) Land WMO/GCOS/GTOS Global Terrestrial Network-Hydrology (GTN-H) Land/Water

Climate Observations: Delivering Benefits Through Adaptation Observations by NMHSs, Others GCOS Observing Systems Weather, Climate, Water Phenomena/ Influences Impacts Services: Historical records Forecasts, Warnings Climate Change Projections Advice, Investigations, etc. Sectoral Decisionmaking including ADAPTATION Climate-sensitive Socioeconomic Sectors: Agriculture Health Tourism Energy and Transport etc. Lowered Impacts, e. g. , during droughts, floods, etc. Improved Outcomes: More crops, lower disease, improved water availability fewer accidents, etc. Social & Economic Benefits/ Costs Un-mediated Outcomes in each sector: e. g. , crops produced, disease outbreaks, tourist visits, energy generated, GDP, accidents, etc. “The foundation for essentially all informed decision-making aimed at reducing the costs and enhancing the benefits of weather, climate, and water events is the systematic observation of the atmosphere, ocean and land surfaces…”

GCOS, Adaptation, and Development Observations and Adaptation l Adequate global networks are critical to designing good adaptation strategies/policies. – – l Denser regional and national networks are highly essential. – – – l Global data are needed to adequately test, verify, and improve global climate change models Value of models based on quality, quantity, sustainability of data Better models will enable more reliable characterisation of future climate in coming decades, useful for developing adaptation strategies All Parties benefit by having global level data available Adaptation strategies will necessarily vary regionally and nationally, so Substantially more observations are required for reliable regional and national climate monitoring and modelling And to better manage national economies and address societal needs Therefore, improvements in networks and rescue of historical data are needed, especially in developing countries, at global, regional, and national scales.

GCOS, Adaptation, and Development Important Considerations in Developing Clim. Dev Africa l l l Good observations and climate services fundamental for climate risk mgmt and thus to adaptation and to achieving the MDGs But climate observing networks weak and/or deteriorating in Africa Also, climate and environmental data are not well used locally in Africa Improved communication of climate info needed at all levels, from govt ministers to farmers in the field NMHSs have a major role to play in providing and disseminating climate info and thus in contributing to the development agenda

GCOS, Adaptation, and Development The GCOS Strategy l Identify observational requirements for climate applications u u l Build on existing systems to the extent possible u l Encourage existing systems to meet GCOS standards: other observing systems, sponsors, CBS, CAS, CCl, CHy, JCOMM, GTOS, CGMS, CEOS, IGOS-P Engage intergovernmental, regional and national bodies u u l SC, Science Panels (AOPC, OOPC, TOPC), partners, sponsors Identify networks/systems needed to meet requirements UNFCCC/COP on ‘systematic observation’ requirements National and regional entities to address deficiencies Regional Workshops Capacity building Resource mobilization u u Seek multi-governmental funding, national support GCOS Cooperation Mechanism

GCOS, Adaptation, and Development GCOS, the UNFCCC, and Adaptation – the Workshop Programme l l l 3 workshops in each of 10 regions W 1 would assess the adequacy of global and regional climate observations for determining regional climate trends and for adaptation planning (GCOS) W 2 would use the available observations to evaluate the adequacy and reliability of regional climate models for adaptation needs (WCRP) W 3 would consider the assessments provided by the first two workshops and provide advice on how model outputs could best be used to develop effective adaptation strategies (GCOS, WCRP, WCP) An initial planning workshop would convene experts to give detailed consideration to programme implementation Funding for a pilot phase has been approved by the World Bank