Gaming MSW and Hybrid Warfare Rex Brynen Mc

Gaming MSW and Hybrid Warfare Rex Brynen Mc. Gill University PAXsims

Defining “hybrid war” �How useful is the terminology? • • • hybrid war irregular war asymmetric warfare “grey zone” “ambiguous war” � +ve: highlights the broad spectrum and many sub -types of armed conflict � -ve: when was war ever NOT “hybrid”?

Preparing for “hybrid war” � Use wargames to anticipate and prepare for anticipated irregular forms of conflict. � Use wargames to promote innovative thinking and adaptability when confronted with unanticipated modes of conflict.

Modes of “hybrid war” � guerilla warfare � political subversion � terrorism � information operations � illicit arms supplies � targeted killings � espionage � forced displacement � EW and cyberwar � humanitarian suffering � OSINT � criminal networks

Examples of “hybrid war” � Russia (vs Ukraine) � Allies (vs Axis) � Russia (vs Georgia) � UK (vs IRA) � AQ, ISIS (vs West) � Canada (vs South � Hamas (vs Israel) Africa) � US, GCC (vs Syria) � US (vs Nicaragua) � Coalition (vs Libya) � etc. � Iran (vs GCC) � etc.

key question � Why are you gaming? What is the question you are trying to answer? • everything else stems from that

the wisdom of (creative) crowds “One thing a person cannot do, no matter how rigorous his analysis or heroic his imagination, is to draw up a list of the things that would never occur to him. ” Thomas Schelling

wisdom vs stupidity of crowds �facilitation techniques for encouraging innovative thinking • flatten hierarchy • collect lots of ideas • how do you reality test? �Do we devote enough time and attention to identifying, developing, and promoting game facilitation skills?

The MC 02 problem �Millennium Challenge 2002 • Red develops innovative approaches (retired Lt General Paul Van Riper) • low-tech C 3 I • swarm techniques, much of Blue’s fleet sunk • White resets game, Van Riper walks out, scandal erupts �lessons to be learned

RCAT vs MMOWGLI � Rapid Campaign Analysis Toolset • core rules with matrix-game like system for innovation � Massive Multiplayer Online War Game Leveraging the Internet • tweet-like ideas and gamification

harnessing the playtest � Traditionally a wargame is developed and playtested (and models may undergo V&V), THEN it is deemed ready to develop insights. � However, the development and playtest phase may itself produce interesting findings and ideas that need to be captured.

harnessing the schoolhouse � Traditionally a wargame is developed • EITHER for training/education, • OR for analysis. � However, the former might well generate some of the latter. • Can combining games decrease costs and increase use? • Are trainees too stupid to generate useful insights? �the megacities debate

repetition and variation � “Quick and dirty” games with flexible adjudication and avenues for innovation may be especially valuable because they can be played multiple times at a relatively low cost.

discussion/workshop � What is a reasonably plausible case of “hybrid warfare” that might face UK defence planners in the next 10 years? � What irregular conflict components would you need to model in that case? • How will model/game these? • How will your game design incorporate things you haven’t thought of (but your players have)?