Game Rules Rule 1 The number of objects

Game Rules • Rule #1: – The number of objects left in the bowl at the end of every 10 seconds will double. (max: 14) • Rule #2: – The object of the game is for the players to acquire as many objects as possible. • Rule #3: – Players cannot communicate with each other

Dollar Auction • I will auction off a dollar in class today • Rules: – Both the highest bidder and the previous highest bidder have to pay their bids

International trends • In 1971, Italy’s population - 54 million • Bangladesh had 66 million people in a smaller area (size of Wisconsin) • In 2000, Italy’s population stabilized at 57 million • Bangladesh population doubled to 132 million, and still growing

International trends • Italians now among world’s wealthiest & best educated. • Bangladeshi children are mostly underfed, unemployment is high, and literacy rate is low (65 percent are illiterate). • Bangladeshis emigrants not welcome in India (also overcrowded). ~ ½ size of U. S. , almost 4 x number of people • Why don’t Bangladeshis, like Italians, stop selfdestructive overpopulation?

Defining Social Dilemmas • Social Dilemma: – A situation in which individuals profit from selfishness unless everyone chooses the selfish alternative, in which case everyone loses. – Individuals must choose between maximizing their personal outcomes and maximizing their group’s outcomes

Bonnie and Clyde Arrested! • Bonnie and Clyde have been arrested for suspected bank robbery, but the police has little evidence • The police offered them immunity from prosecution for a confession • If both stay silent then both get a short sentence on a minor charge • If both blame other then both receive a moderate sentence • If only one blames the other then that criminal goes free and the remaining criminal gets a long sentence

Prisoner’s Dilemma Bonnie Keep silent Blame other (Coop) (Defect) Keep silent 1 year (Coop) Life 1 year Clyde Blame other Parole Life (Defect) Parole 20 Years

Cooperate? Compete? What’s the Dilemma? • This a social dilemma—there is no perfect choice. • The best outcome occurs if both individuals cooperate and remain quiet. • But the best individual outcomes from confessing. • Many social dilemmas pit individual against group interests.

Focus on Social Dysfunction: Tragedy of the Commons • Garrett Hardin (1968) noted common pastures in New England were often overgrazed. • Each individual who shared a common pasture faced a dilemma: – Adding another animal could help him/her. – However, if everyone did this, the common pasture would be quickly ruined.

Focus on Social Dysfunction: Tragedy of the Commons • Replenishing Resource Management Dilemma: a situation in which group members share a renewable resource that will: – Continue to produce benefits if group members don’t over-harvest, but – Each person profits from harvesting as much as possible.

If students kept pool in top quarter, points replenished rapidly (1 every 6 sec) 24 18 12 6 0 If they took points too fast, replenishment slowed

24 Down to 12 sec in second quarter 18 12 6 18 sec in third quarter 0 24 sec in 4 th quarter When last point taken, the game was over

U. S. energy use as % of world total U. S. population as % of world total

“Goals” of Social Dilemmas 1. Gain immediate satisfaction 2. Defending ourselves and others 3. Reproduction

1. Gaining Immediate Satisfaction • Social trap situation where individuals or groups are drawn towards immediate rewards that later prove to have unpleasant or lethal consequences

1. Gaining immediate satisfaction • How can we change the consequences of shortsighted behavior? • Change the timing of rewards & punishments 1. Use alternative technologies to change long-term negative consequences 2. Move future negative consequences into present 3. Add immediate punishments for undesirable behavior 4. Reinforce more desirable alternatives

Will any one strategy work? Type of Intervention Motive Activated Command-and Control Fear Market-based Greed Voluntarist Social Responsibility Example Loss of Organization Tax rebates educational appeals for benefits people for to consumers families write who having too Congress purchasein many support of solar heating children wilderness panels preservation

2. Defending ourselves and others • Defensive behavior in response to group conflict often has unintended negative consequences

Research Study: Threats • Participants could win/lose $$ by making “truck deliveries” on either direct or circuitous routes • Could cooperate or compete (blocking) with opponent • Most $$ by cooperating on direct route

The Trucking Game ACME Start BOLT Destination ACME Destination BOLT Start • Each company has indirect route • A shared one lane short route • Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route

The Trucking Game ACME Start A Start Destination BOLT Destination B Destination ACME Destination A BOLT Start • Each company has indirect route • A shared one lane short route • Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route

Research Study: Threats • Participants could win/lose $$ by making “truck deliveries” on either direct or circuitous routes • Could cooperate or compete (blocking) with opponent • Most $$ by cooperating on direct route • Opponent’s strategy: – Punitive deterrent severe punishment if blocked – Nonpunitive deterrent mild punishment, switched back to cooperative – Turn-the-other-cheek no punishment ever

Average Payoff Earned The punitive strategy started out successfully, but over time it made the opponent angry and elicited costly counter-attacks 12 10 Non-punitive deterrent is similar to “Tit-for-Tat” - rewards cooperation, punishes defection 8 6 4 2 Punitive deterrent Turn-the-other-cheek 0 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 15 trial blocks 4 th

2. Defending ourselves and others • Complex thinking in leaders goes down as conflict goes up • Likelihood of failing at social dilemmas increases

The Dollar Game • A game in which a group bids for a dollar, but in which second bidder also has to pay. • Bidders begin seeking easy reward, but end up desperately trying to avoid loss. • Bids sometimes go as high as $20(Teger, 1980) • Real world example? – U. S. / U. S. S. R. arms race

The Dollar Game • 1947 - U. S. Sen. Edward Johnson - “God almighty in his infinite wisdom dropped the A-bomb in our lap” • 1950 s- U. S. military concerned Russians had more nukes, feverishly built B-52 bombers • 1948 - General Carl Spatz predicted nukes would lead to “lasting peace” • 1961 - Americans 600 nuke bombers Russians 190 • 1949 - Russians also blessed with the A-bomb • 1964 - Americans 800 ICBMs Russians 200 • 1952 - Americans developed more powerful H-bomb, Russians followed shortly • 1969 - Americans – 4200 nukes Russians - 1300

Center dot represents total firepower of all bombs dropped during WWII including Nagasaki and Hiroshima All the other dots represent firepower of world’s nuclear weapons by 1981

Defending ourselves and others • What can we do to interrupt these dilemma spirals? • One strategy = GRIT (Graduated and Reciprocated Initiatives in Tension-reduction) – Publicly challenge the opponent to match your deescalations. – Used successfully by Kennedy on Kruschev, and Gorbachev on Reagan.

3. Reproduction • According to natural selection, the implicit goal is to get more stuff in order to further reproductive ends – (e. g. , more kids, kids that survive longer) • The outcome of this goal may be the root of all major problems facing us today • “No technical solution can rescue us from the misery of overpopulation. Freedom to breed will bring ruin to all. ” – Garrett Hardin

What is the biggest problem facing the world? SOCIAL DILEMMAS Overpopulation Dwindling Natural Resources Economic Problems Political and Military Conflict

State of the World 6 5 Human 4 population 3 of world (Billions) 2 1 0 1800 1850 1900 YEAR 1950 2000

Pop: 132 million

What can we do? 1. Recognize social dilemmas 2. Resist ineffective interventions (e. g. , punitive deterrent, turn-other-cheek) 3. Education and population control 4. Change salient goals (esp. away from immediate satisfaction) 5. Put tradition in its place 6. Recognize there are no simple solutions