Futurism Workshop Structured brainstorming about the future March

Futurism Workshop Structured brainstorming about the future March 15, 2008

Why is the future important? Futurism Workshop 2 Source: GBN

Why think about the future? US Oil Drilling Scenarios, 1980 -90: the future looks clear Source: GBN Futurism Workshop 3

Why think about the future? US Oil Drilling, 1980 -90: discontinuities happen all the time 2. Actual 1. Estimated Source: GBN Futurism Workshop 4

Step 1: Determine Decision Issue § Criteria § Sufficient issue breadth, time range § Possible examples § What will science be like in 2020? § What will US competitiveness be like in 2020? § How will globalization impact science in 2020? Action: Group Brainstorm Futurism Workshop 5

Step 2: Brainstorm Driving Forces § “PESTE” § Political § Economic § Social (e. g. ; what will social aspects of science be like in 2020? ) § Technological § Environmental Action: Group Brainstorm Futurism Workshop 6

Step 3: Vote on Driving Forces § Each person has 2 blank post-its § Please walk up to the board and vote for two Driving Forces with your post-its § The moderator will tabulate what the group finds to be the two most important Driving Forces Action: Group Vote Futurism Workshop 7

Step 4: Map Scenarios § Map top two Driving Forces to Scenario quadrants (example: customer demand interest rates) High Demand High Rates Low Demand Low Rates High Demand High Rates Futurism Workshop Low Rates Low Demand 8

Step 5: Small Group Deliberation § Each of 4 groups is assigned one scenario § Please spend 10 -15 minutes discussing what it would be like in your scenario (PESTE: political, economic, social, technological, environmental) Economic Growth Davos World Pax Americana Pro-Western Norms Anti-Western Norms A New Caliphate Futurism Workshop Cycle of Fear Economic Stagnation 9

Step 6: Scenario Planning Debrief § Looking at the Decision Issue, (e. g. ; “What will the Philadelphia economy be like in 2010? ”), the group determined the two key driving forces of (e. g. ; demand, rates) and discussed 4 possible future scenarios § Next step would be forming an action plan for each scenario and a list of early warning indicators to track High Demand Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Low Rates High Rates Scenario 4 Futurism Workshop Scenario 3 Low Demand 10