Futures tools report Scenariobuilding Observatory of Innovation CBS

Futures tools report Scenario-building Observatory of Innovation, CBS

Definition “a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative futures environments in which one’s decisions might be played out…This approach is more a disciplined way of thinking than a formal methodology” (Schwartz, 1996).

Definition 2 o “Scenarios are not about predicting the future, rather they are about perceiving futures in the present” (Schwartz, 1996).

Pioneers o o Herman Kahn, On Thermonuclear War (1960). RAND – public policy Pierre Wack – Royal Dutch/Shell; The Gentle Art of Reperceiving” – corporate

Epistemological basis o Work of neuro-biologists suggests that humans are natural scenariobuilding animals – ability to tell stories about ourselves in the future; cognitive link to speech capacity in the brain

Why use scenarios? o ‘Scenario thinking, by setting discussions in a time frame beyond their current assignment and beyond facts and forecasts, allows for a discussion with less defensive behaviour and a more shared sense of purpose’ (Ringland, 2002)

Common uses o o o Development of strategy and policy – organisational/spatial Heuristic device – ‘re-perceiving’ – in organisational change Stimulate critical thinking, challenge assumptions – within organisations, the general population

Methods o o Generic approaches – following the same basic steps – more art than science (e. g Ringland, Schwartz) More quantitative, ‘engineering’ in nature (e. g. LIPSOR – Godet)

Range of scenarios o o “Scenarios often (but not always) seem to fall into three groups: more of the same, but better; worse (decay and depression); and different but better (fundamental change). “Scenarios are not conceived of one at a time. You develop a range of two or three possible futures, allowing you to address an array of possibilities and rehearse your responses to each of them. At the same time, more than four scenarios tend to be too complex: you cannot keep track of their ramifications in your mind” (Schwartz)

Case studies o o SW England Scenarios Project VISIONS Project BMW Regional Assembly Utah