Futures Studies An Overview of Basic Concepts Dr
Futures Studies: An Overview of Basic Concepts Dr. Wendy L. Schultz Infinite Futures 2001 -2002 Fulbright Lecturer, Finland Futures Research Centre wendy@infinitefutures. com 22 March 2002 http: //www. infinitefutures. com copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
What do we. . . See: the past, the present, trends. v Wonder: what might happen? v Fear: past disasters --> future crises. v Desire: past successes --> future goals. v Believe: who/what makes change? v DO: who/what could help us create change? v 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Feelings and experiences: sources of ideas about the future History (experiences) Feelings about the future Image of the Possible Future outcomes were unexpected >>> uncertain, curious, or challenged, producing…> WILDLY DIFFERENT: TRANSFORMATIONAL outcomes were disasters or failures >>> scared (fear), worry, anxiety, producing…> NEGATIVE: NIGHTMARE outcomes were wonderful! hope, excitement, successes! >>> anticipation, producing…> POSITIVE: EVERYTHING GETS BETTER outcomes followed an expected pattern >>> CONTINUITY: STAYS THE SAME 22 March 2002 security, stability, producing…> copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Guidelines for thinking about the future. . . v Make NO PREDICTIONS; v Remember, there are NO FUTURE FACTS; v TOMORROW WILL BE NOTHING LIKE TODAY; v Question assumptions when you hear, “[. . X. . ]” could *never* happen…” 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Studies is… a transdisciplinary, systems-science-based approach to. . analyzing patterns of change in the past; identifying trends of change in the present; and extrapolating alternative scenarios of possible change in the future, in order to help people create the futures they most desire. 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Inter, trans, meta disciplinary: philosophy, political science literature history international relations futures studies psychology economics sociology 22 March 2002 systems science copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures …etc.
Alternative possible futures. . . § § Reality is a non-linear -- i. e. , chaotic -system, and thus impossible to predict; Possible futures emerge from the turbulent interplay of current trends and emerging issues of change. possibility one trends innovations revolutions, etc. 22 March 2002 possibility two possibility three copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures …etc.
…alternative possible futures § § § A basic assumption of futures studies: not one future, but many possible futures; of those possible futures, some are more probable than others -- evaluate changing probabilities by monitoring trend growth; of those possible futures, some are more preferable than others -- evaluate preferability by dialogue within community. 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Alternative futures: possible, probable, and preferable futures probable futures possible futures 22 March 2002 objective of futures studies: act to enhance the probability of our preferable futures. copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Futures Studies is…. . NOT prediction, but EXPLORATION and PROVOCATION. 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
Evaluating forecasts: Any useful statement about the future should seem to be ridiculous. -- Dator’s Axiom 22 March 2002 copyright 2002, Wendy L. Schultz, Infinite Futures
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