Future Of Transportation Its Electrifying Ed Kjaer Director

Future Of Transportation… Its Electrifying! Ed Kjaer Director Electric Transportation v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center

Background- SCE Service Territory • • • 50, 000 square miles 4. 5 million customers 21, 000 MW summer peak demand 20% renewables generation mix $11 b revenue v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 2

Background- SCE Service Territory Greater South Coast Air Basin v 4 -county region in CA v 16 million people- projecting 15% increase by 2010 v 261 thousand diesel vehicles v 9 million gasoline vehicles v 80 + Truck stops v One major sea port v Four major air ports Majority of emissions from mobile sector GHG NOX VOC Other 58% Mobile 42% Source: SCAQMD & CEC v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 3

Overview of Auto industry Trends in US v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 4

Oil…Its In The “Driver’s” Seat US “oil addiction” 60+ % imported China & India Middle East volatility Resulting in $75 barrel… $100 by ? $3+ @ pump… $4+ by ? v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 5 …Are we too reliant?

Driving down SUV Sales v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 6

Driving Down SUV Sales • January- a new Tahoe SUV- av. 7 days on lot and av. transaction price = $42, 191 • Today same Tahoe SUV- av. 62 days on lot and av. Transaction price = $37, 667 source: Automotive News August 7 • Consumers are moving away from SUVs to smaller cars in what he characterizes as a "tectonic shift". Source: Mark Fields, Ford v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 7

Driving Up Fuel Economy Advertising v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 8

And Going Green… Research shows that 70% of Americans are now "very concerned" with the environment and that fuel efficiency is one of three most important factors in influencing people's choice of cars. Source: Ford v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 9

Celebrity Endorsements! v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 10

And Waving the Flag! v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 11

Oil’s Driving Growth of Alternative Fuels Growing call for domestic alternative fuel Recognizing electricity as an alt. fuel v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 12

But The Real News Is Hybrids Source: Toyota v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 13

Global Hybrid Sales Source: Toyota v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 14

Toyota Hybrid Leadership • “I truly believe Toyota CAN BE part of the solution to the great issues of our times. . . issues like energy independence. . . air pollution. . . health care. . . safety. . . and global warming. ” • “Hybrid technology can be teamed with every other promising technology to make it even more efficient and fuel-stingy. . . whether its high-tech gas engines. . . clean diesels. . . bio-diesel. . . ethanol. . . plug-in hybrids. . . or hydrogen fuel cells. ” • “At Toyota, alone, we're spending an average of $22. 7 million PER DAY on research and development. ” Jim Press, Pres. Toyota North America v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 15

Its More Than Just The Oil… Its About Sustainability v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 16

Which is Driving A PHEV National Movement- v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 17

Including The Auto “Ecoist” Today’s auto “Ecoist” v 60’s “enthusiast” (mpg v speed) v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 18

…Part Of A Fundamental Convergence Increasingly Transportation Is Becoming “Electricity” Powered Hybrid vehicles today; Plug-in-Hybrids and fuel cell vehicles tomorrow Electrification at marine ports, truck facilities, airports, and rail yards Electric goods movement equipment v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 19

…And Bigger Than Just Our Cars Forklifts Burden Carriers Garden Care PHEV PHFCEV Golf Carts Capacity, Utility Roleload management Meeting Electro-Drive safety, Load energy efficiency Personal Mobility NEVs CEVs Airport GSE LD Rail HD Rail TSE Port GSE ETRU v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 20

Increasingly We’re using “Electricity” For Efficiency ICE HEV PHEV v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 21 BEV/FCEV

Plugging In To Our Future v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 22

Benefiting From The Grid v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 23

Grid Versus Gasoline “Electricity” v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 24

Grid Electricity- CO 2 “Well to Wheels” CA – average = 250 – 300 grams per k. Wh CA - marginal today = 330 grams per k. Wh and US in 2050 CA in 2050 = about 150 grams per k. Wh v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 25

State Of PHEV Technology v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 26

…And Automaker Response? • “Today, we are pursuing a "plug-in" hybrid vehicle that can travel greater distances without using its gas engine. . . conserving more oil AND slicing smog and greenhouse gases to nearly imperceptible levels. ” Toyota • “We are very keenly looking at it and working with that technology. ” Bill Ford • “General Motors, losing sales to fuel-efficient cars from Toyota Motor, is developing a hybrid- electric vehicle with a battery that recharges at any outlet, GM executives familiar with the plan said” v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 27

SCE Leadership v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 28

SCE Leadership- Hydrogen v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 29

SCE’s Leadership- EV Technical Center (EVTC) v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 30

SCE’s Vision- Near Term Energy Batteries v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 31

SCE’s Vision- Future “Smart” Meters (AMI) v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 32

SCE Vision- Long Term Vehicle To Grid (V 2 G) v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 33

MY PHEV “Crystal Ball” v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 34

Conclusions • Oil is driving our future…to “avoid” it! • Energy Security plus Environment • Hybridization is a nexus to all other “alternative” technologies • Energy Storage (batteries) is a nexus for mobile and stationary system “sustainability v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 35

Conclusions v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 36

A Final Thought Brazil may have a unique opportunity… • You have an existing alt. fuel infrastructure • You have a dominance of renewable energy (Hydro) • Grid-connected transportation supported with bio-fuels could be key to your Energy Security and Environmental Future! v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 37

Thank You… v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center

Activists At Work v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 39

Diesel Has Challenges v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 40

“Electricity”- Pathway to Efficiency v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 41

Next Generation Prius- With a Plug? v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 42

Our Fuel Economy- Not Good Enough v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 43

The Tesla Beauty- More Than Skin Deep v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 44

Energy Choices for Transportation v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 45

EVs at SCE Since 1990 v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 46

Heavy Duty HEV Evaluation v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 47

SCE’s Hybrid EV Fleet Programs v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 48

SCE’s Hydrogen Activities v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 49

SCE AMI System v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 50

Trends- US Hybrid Sales Source: Toyota v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 51

Trends- Toyota’s Hybrids v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 52

Trends- The Domestic Autos Challenge v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 53

Trends- Trading “mpg” for “miles per minute” ? Signs of consumer backlash to “muscle hybrids”? v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 54

Other PHEV Drivers v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 55

Important Websites v. Electric Transportation Department v. EV Technical Center 56