Future Hunters Strategic Foresight Toolkits Scenario Planning Lesson

Future Hunters Strategic Foresight Toolkits: Scenario Planning (Lesson 6) 1 Victory Starts Here!

UNCLASSIFIED Future Hunters Lesson 6 What’s in this Lesson 1. Two approaches to developing scenarios 2. Identifying implications of and indicators for scenarios 3. Writing Assignment 4. Quiz Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 2

UNCLASSIFIED Lesson Outcome • Comprehend how to develop a scenario that employs the archetype or 2 x 2 scenario matrix methods and is relevant and useful for the intended audience Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 3

UNCLASSIFIED Learning Objectives By the end of this lesson, you will be expected to: • Be able to create scenarios using the drivers you identified during lesson 5 • Identify the implications of and indicators for a scenario Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 4

UNCLASSIFIED History and Purpose of Scenarios A very brief history of scenario planning (link) • Scenario planning was used in the 1940 s by Herman Kahn at Rand to develop US military strategies • Shell Oil used scenario planning to prepare for changes in oil supply, which allowed it to respond better to the 1973 oil crisis than other oil companies Purpose of scenario planning • Scenarios help us describe and imagine the future • These conceptions of the future allow organizations to test, refine, and create strategies • Organizations can develop indicators to alert them if aspects of a scenario are becoming reality Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 5

UNCLASSIFIED Cone of Plausibility • • • The Cone of Plausibility demonstrates that the range of possible futures increases over time, categorizes different types of futures, and highlights the types of futures that scenarios can describe. The baseline future is the probable future. It reflects current trends. Plausible and possible futures reflect alternative futures that are often informed by weak signals and wildcards. https: //prescient 2050. com/the-cone-of-plausibility-can-assist-your-strategic-planning-process/ As you scan, consider the different types of futures you are exploring • Probable futures is the future that will happen if everything remains the same based on trends (baseline) • Plausible futures include alternative futures that may occur given what you found during scanning • Possible futures are even broader and include wild cards (those high impact/low probability events) • Preferable futures are plausible futures that your organization would like to occur Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 6

UNCLASSIFIED Developing Scenarios • Effective scenarios are a: story, coherent, plausible, internally consistent, specific, plausible, relevant, dramatic, balanced, personal, help suspend disbelief and integrated • Scenarios should help change the attitudes of those who read them • Scenarios transport people and organizations to the future, allowing them to evaluate and revise current strategies and develop new strategies • Scenarios should reflect trends as well as weak signals and wild cards • Scenario development should be a group activity to benefit from diverse perspectives and to gain buy-in for the process • The names you provide each scenario should reflect that scenario’s unique characteristics • Develop between 3 -5 scenarios (any more will be too many) • Ideally, scenarios will lead to action and be linked closely to strategy development and refinement Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 7

UNCLASSIFIED Scenario Methods (1) (Archetypes) There are many methods for developing scenarios. This lesson will focus on two of them. 1. Archetype: Provides four structures for scenarios that reflect common characteristics in scenarios. The archetypes are: • Continued growth: Continuation of and enhancement to current trends. Things essentially continue as they are with some improvements. • Collapse: The system reaches its limits and collapses (e. g. economically, socially, or environmentally). • Discipline: Society becomes more harmonious and sustainable. New values refocus people. • Transformation: There is a substantial change from how things currently are. Places drivers into each scenario to see how they interact with one another and evolve over time. The description of how the drivers would interact and evolve in each archetype is the narrative. The narrative should be supported by external evidence. To further explore the four archetypes, see Jim Dator’s article (pages 2 -7): https: //static 1. squarespace. com/static/5 bc 578 bdfb 22 a 52798 f 8 a 038/t/5 d 1844 fe 53 fad 1000 1 fbf 127/1561871656439/4. +Dator-4+Futures+Museum. pdf Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 8

UNCLASSIFIED Ranking Drivers • During lesson 5, you identified drivers related to the trends and events/occurrences you discovered while scanning • You will likely have discovered numerous drivers. You must identify the drivers that are most important/impactful and uncertain. • You now must rank them based on their importance/impact for your organization in terms of the question or issue which you are focused (you can use a numerical system or low/medium/high categories to rank them) • You then rank the drivers based on their level of uncertainty using a ranking system similar to the one used above • Select the two drivers that are most important/impactful and uncertain • This should be a group activity to benefit from the diverse perspectives and expertise of your team Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 9

UNCLASSIFIED Translating Drivers into Critical Uncertainties • Differences related to the critical uncertainties distinguish scenarios from one another • Drivers provide the basis for these uncertainties • To translate drivers into critical uncertainties, consider what is uncertain about them • If your topic is government regulation, the question is: Will government regulation be very restrictive or very permissive? • This provides two extremes that will be useful as you develop scenarios Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 10

UNCLASSIFIED Scenario Methods (2) (2 x 2 Scenario Matrix) Critical Uncertainty 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Sample 2 x 2 Scenario Matrix Critical Uncertainty 2 • • • This method is one of the most popular scenario development methods Identify the two most impactful and uncertain drivers Translate them to critical uncertainties by identifying the extremes of the drivers Place critical uncertainties on axes (in the earlier example one axes would include very restrictive and very permissive government regulations) Describe the likely characteristics in each of the four quadrants Use these four characteristics to develop narratives for each of the four quadrants Victory Starts Here! https: //www. sciencedirect. com/science/article/pii/S 0016328719303416 For more information on scenarios, watch this video: https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=vx 2 mu 5 Fgs. XQ UNCLASSIFIED 11

UNCLASSIFIED Futures Triangle The Futures Triangle identifies all of the forces that impact the future and that should inform scenarios • The weight of history are those things that inhibit change and may keep us on a specific trajectory without us realizing it. • The push of the present represents current trends that are pushing us towards a particular type of future. • The pull of the future represents the future we desire. We have to develop strategies to achieve this future. https: //knowledgeworks. org/resources/futures-thinking-now-driverschange-futures-triangle/ Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 12

UNCLASSIFIED Scenario Narrative Examples • • Four COVID-19 scenarios from Deloitte (link) 1. The Passing Storm 2. Lone Wolves 3. Good Company 4. Sunrise in the Easy Three COVID-19 scenarios from Atlantic Council (link) 1. Great Accelerator Downwards 2. China First 3. New Renaissance Six Future City Archetypes from Shell (link) 1. Underdeveloped Urban Centres 2. Underprivileged Crowded Cities 3. Developing Mega-Hubs 4. Sprawling Metropolises 5. Urban Powerhouses 6. Prosperous Communities Three higher education/COVID-19 scenarios from Mc. Kinsey (link) 1. Rapid and effective control; virus contained 2. Effective response but (regional virus resurgence); virus recurrence 3. Broad failure of public-health interventions’ pandemic escalation Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 13

UNCLASSIFIED Implications of Scenarios • As noted earlier, scenarios can be used to help organizations develop strategies that allow them to thrive in different futures • After developing scenarios, you should examine them to determine what they mean for your organization • Consider: • Are your planned strategies suited for the scenarios? • Are there any commonalities in the scenarios that you could address in your strategy development? • Do you need to develop new strategies or eliminate others? • What issues do the scenarios raise for your organization? Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 14

UNCLASSIFIED Indicators for Scenarios • It is also possible to create indicators to alert you if elements of a scenario appear to becoming reality • This can provide you time to adapt to the challenges and opportunities of a particular scenario • Once you identify indicators, you must monitor their appearance so that you and your organization are prepared • In the earlier example of government regulation, possible indicators may be: • Candidates begin running for office advocating increased government regulation of your industry • Non-profit groups begin to be formed that are focused on government regulation in your industry • A few local governments begin regulating your industry Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 15

UNCLASSIFIED Assignment • Select a topic and go through the following steps to create a scenario: 1. Create a 2 x 2 scenario matrix using two critical uncertainties you create (no need to scan, just pick generic ones) 2. List three bullets for each quadrants that could serve as the basis for b. Assignment- Select a topic and go through the following steps to the scenario create a scenario: Victory Starts Here! Create a 2 x 2 scenario matrix using two critical uncertainties you create (no need to scan, just pick generic ones) List three bullets for each quadrants that could serve as the basis for the scenario UNCLASSIFIED 16

UNCLASSIFIED Quiz Dear Future Hunters: Go to the link below to take your quiz. Mark your assignment as complete after you have answered all of the quiz questions. https: //docs. google. com/forms/d/e/1 FAIp. QLSdj. FKu_q_28 Ga. DBj. Vl. Nd. Jn. WOFe 6 ysq 07 eq. XEIVy. RLa. UX 7 ua. Q/viewform? usp=sf_link Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 17

UNCLASSIFIED Summary • The archetypes and 2 x 2 scenario matrix methods are two of many approaches to develop scenarios • Scenarios are useful for describing and imagining the future • Use scenarios to improve your organizational strategies • Identify implications and indicators related to each scenario Victory Starts Here! UNCLASSIFIED 18