Future How to be prepared for it Futurist

Future: How to be prepared for it? Futurist Elina Hiltunen What’s Next Consulting Oy Elina Hiltunen, What’s Next Consulting Oy, www. whatsnext. fi, email: whatsnext@luukku. com

Elina, who? • • M. Sc in chemical engineering Futurist Ph. D. Student at HSE Lecturer, consultant Founder of What’s Next Consulting Oy Columnist at Talouselämä, Wired UK, Talous Sanomat, Jade, Future Takes (US) Board member of European Futurists Conference Blogger: www. future. vuodatus. net

What did not happen in the future: 1910 , France: Paleo future blogi

And what happened… Harpleys Week, 1908 Source: paleofuture blog

Why to think about the future when we cannot predict it? • Be prepared for various futures (anticipation) • Innovating the futures and breaking our mental models • Communicating and discussion about futures with shareholders

Anticipating the futures Being prepared for various futures

Some concepts of the future Wi car ld ds Weak Signals Fad Trend Megatrend duration

Megatrendit are big trends that concern a lot of people

Globalization Source: http: //www. cartoonweb. com/images/globalization 1. gif

Networking Source: http: //www. cartoonweb. com/

Teknological development

Climate change

TREN Ds Increase of the use of social media Increase of use of alternative energy sources Increase of use of mobile phones Increase of single households Increase of distant working

Wild cards • Fast changes with huge impacts Kuvan lähde: http: //www. israelnewsagency. com/cherney 911 terrorism. jpg

Weak signals • Signals of new emerging issues that can become big trends in the future- or then not

A weak signal test 1. Makes your colleagues to laugh 2. You collagues are opposing it: no way, it will never happen 3. Makes people to wonder 4. No one has heard about it before 5. It is wanted that no-one talks about it anymore (a tabu) 1 -5 ticks and it is a weak signal!

Source: Perhe- lehti

http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=B 6 z 2 DWXm. Rkg http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Uc. Kqyn-g. Ub. Y

http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Yd 99 gy. E 4 j. Ck Philips Lumalive

Different kinds of weak signals • Technological weak signals innovations • Social weak signals something is done differently, a change in accustomed

Where Do I (as a weak signal enthusiast) find them? • Surfing in the Internet • Blogs, blogs and blogs • Keeping my eyes and ears open, mobilephone with camera in the other hand a notebook in the other reporting about weak signals

How to use weak signals

Trend. Wiki wnc. trendwiki. fi a tool for organizations for collecting futures information

Trend. Wiki wnc. trendwiki. fi Trendi + erilaiset tilastolliset Analyysit skenaariot signaalit

Scenarios Now

Scenarios Trend Trend Megatrend

Testing the strategy How will the strategy work in different futures -finding weak points of strategy -thinking of various possibilities for action in the future

Scenarios Strategy

Innovating the futures

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. ” ”For knowledge is limited to all we now know and understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and understand. ”

Breaking the mental models Tools: -Strategic serendipity -Futures Window

Futures Window References: VTT, UPM, Nokia, Welness fair 2008, YLE

Strategic Serendipity Product/ service Target group A trend theme

Comunnication and discussion with the community

Finnair Departure 2093 www. departure 2093. com

Futures work of various organizations • Macroscenarios (Shell, Nokia) • Consumer scenarios (Philips, Sony Ericsson) • Reports on various topics (Siemens, IBM) • Futures teasers(Philips Design, VW)

Beware of these in you organization’s futures work • Believing too much on your own opinions about the future • Consensus, group think • Being prepared only for one, the most wanted future • Superficiality, too little resources

Thank You! More information: www. future. vuodatus. net and www. whatsnext. fi