Fusion in the future energy mix Marc Beurskens

Fusion in the future energy mix Marc Beurskens FOM institute for plasma physics "Rijnhuizen" 3430 BE Nieuwegein, PO Box 1207 The Netherlands Marc. Beurskens@rijnh. nl 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Questionnaire on energy in 2100 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Fusion’s contribution in 2100? 50% of global energy use 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Fusion’s contribution in 2100? 10% of global energy use 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Fusion’s contribution in 2100? 1% of global energy use 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Fusion’s contribution in 2100? none 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Which of these will have a contribution of more than 10% in 2100? Wind Solar PV Biomass Fission 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Which of these will be the cheapest in 2100? Wind Solar PV Biomass Fusion Fission 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Energy issues one hears about • Oil will run out • Security of supply • The climate is going to change • Energy poverty 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

How much oil is left? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

BP says 40 years Oil production (Mt/year) 7000 3500 0 0 Years from now 2 february 2004 40 Fusion in the future energy mix

Oil production (Mt/year) 7000 3500 0 0 30 Years from now 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Oil production (Mt/year) 7000 3500 0 0 15 Years from now 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Where is the oil? Miljard vaten (source BP statistical review 2002) 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Resources R/P ratio (Years) Resources limited? Conventional 560 480 Conventional (upper) 400 Unconventional 320 240 160 80 0 Oil Gas Coal 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Not if we accept to use coal 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Fossil fuels • Run out but probably on the long run • Induce security of supply problems 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Any other issues? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Climate change 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

CO 2 is Prime Greenhouse gas 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

CO 2 concentration • Was 280 ppm • Is 360 ppm • Will be? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

How much CO 2 are we going to emit this century? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

CO 2 emission scenarios… 100 years from now? Now 1000 ppm scenario 550 ppm scenario 2 february 2004 Source: IPCC SRES emission scenarios Fusion in the future energy mix

CO 2 is Prime Greenhouse gas 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Now already 0. 5 o. C increase p 550 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix pm

So we need to get rid of fossil fuels because: • They run out on the long run • They contribute to political instability • And most importantly they contribute to global warming 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Can we make a prediction for the future energy consumption? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

CO 2 emission scenarios… 2 february 2004 Source: IPCC SRES emission scenarios Fusion in the future energy mix

World energy consumption IIASA B-scenario Energy consumption (EJ) 1600 1400 “South” “North” 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 19 90 20 00 20 10 20 20 20 30 20 40 20 50 20 60 20 70 20 80 20 90 21 00 0 Year 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

New Renewable 0. 6% Traditional biomass 6. 4% Hydropower 6. 6% Nuclear fission 6. 0% Coal 21. 8% Wind Solar Gas 21. 1% 80% fossil Geothermal New biomass Oil 37. 5% What does the current mix look like? Source: IEA 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Which part may remain fossil? Energy consumption (EJ) 1600 1400 1200 1000 Must be CO 2 free 800 600 400 550 ppm 200 Now 80% fossil 19 90 20 00 20 10 20 20 20 30 20 40 20 50 20 60 20 70 20 80 20 90 21 00 0 Year 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix Source: VN, IPCC

Target European Commission • 50% emission reduction in 2050 • Now assume that the rest of the world would also do this… 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

“The entire world has 50% carbon free energy in 2050” Energy consumption (EJ) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 50% carbon free 600 400 200 19 90 20 00 20 10 20 20 20 30 20 40 20 50 20 60 20 70 20 80 20 90 21 00 0 Year 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

What are the options for 2050? Energy saving Solar Wind Biomass Hydro Nuclear fission Carbon sequestration 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Fossil fuels Cost Application Scale Operation Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 Dirt cheap (3 €cts/k. Wh) All Small-Big Extremely variable Good/sexy 100% (now 80%) Bad yes Fusion in the future energy mix

Nuclear Energy Cost Application Scale Operation Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 Cheap (5 -10€cts/k. Wh) Electricity Big Continuous Very Bad Large Good/Bad yes Fusion in the future energy mix

Hydro Energy Cost Application Scale Operation Low Electricity Small-large ~variable Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 Boring Limited 10% Good (? ) no Fusion in the future energy mix

Energy saving Cost Application Scale Operation Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 Cheap-Expensive All Small-Big Boring 15% (now 0%) good no Fusion in the future energy mix

Solar Energy Cost Application Scale Operation Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 Very high (100€cts/k. Wh) Electricity Small-Big Intermittent sexy 5 -10% (now 0. 01%) good no Fusion in the future energy mix

Example: To cover 5% of current energy in Europe We need to install 600 times the current world capacity of solar PV This would cover the Netherlands 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Wind Energy Cost Application Scale Operation Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 Cheap (5 -10€cts/k. Wh) Electricity Takes much space Intermittent sexy 5 -10% (now 0. 1%) good no Fusion in the future energy mix

Contribution to electricity of wind energy in 2003 Country or region Cumul. installed (GW) 2002 share of electricity by wind Germany 12 4% Spain 5 5. 5% Denmark 2. 8 18. 5% EU 24 2% US Total World 4. 7 0. 3% 32 0. 45% 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Currently 2% of electricity in Europe: 24 GW of wind 20% of electricity in Europe means 240 GW of wind 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Which means 1500 big wind parks Horns Rev in Denmark: 160 MW (80 mills of 2 MWp) 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Biomass Energy Cost Application Scale Operation Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 Medium (10 -50€cts/k. Wh) All Huge Variable bad 5 -10% (now 1 -2%) good no Fusion in the future energy mix

Example: To cover 5% of current energy in Europe We need to cover France with energy crops 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

CO 2 storage Additional cost Application Scale Operation Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 5 -20 €cts/k. Wh All Large Variable bad Large Good? (not proven) no Fusion in the future energy mix

Hydrogen economy • To make hydrogen from electrolyses is too expensive (factor 2 -3) • Fuel cells are too expensive (factor 10) • Hydrogen is essential as energy storage for intermittent sources 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

There is no single alternative energy source that can replace the role of fossil fuels 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

In total • All the renewable sources would add up to about 50% if all works perfectly • Nuclear fission and carbon sequestration could fill in the gaps. 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Surely we are investing a lot? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Industry R&D investment 70 60 R&D investment/Added Value m t s e v in y r t s u nd % 50 40 30 20 i y g r e n e n a C ~ 1% 10 To ba cc El o ec tri ci Te ty le O co il & m ga m Au u s to n ic m at ob El io ile ec ns s tro & ni pa c rts & Ph el ec ar tri m ca a & l bi ot IT ec h h ar dw ar e 0 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix ? &D R n i ore

Industry all investment 70 60 R&D investment/Added Value Capital invest/Added Value % 50 40 30 20 10 To ba cc El o ec tri ci Te ty le O co il & m ga m Au u s to n ic m at ob El io ile ec ns s tro & ni pa c rts & Ph el ec ar tri m ca a & l bi ot IT ec h h ar dw ar e 0 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

What does the government do? Government R&D Raw oil price 80 5000 70 4000 60 3000 50 2000 40 1000 30 0 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix Oil price 2001$ Government R$D in US$ 6000

Action required • We need all available energy sources • Invest in implementation of nearly competitive sources • Invest in R&D for not yet competitive and newer sources 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

What after 2050? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

80 -90% of energy should be carbon free in 2100 Energy consumption (EJ) 1600 1400 1200 1000 >80% carbon free 800 600 400 200 19 90 20 00 20 10 20 20 20 30 20 40 20 50 20 60 20 70 20 80 20 90 21 00 0 Year 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

It could be better, it could be worse… 2 february 2004 Source: IPCC SRES emission scenarios Fusion in the future energy mix

Is there anything else we can hope for? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Fusion 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Nuclear fusion Cost Application Scale Operation Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 ? Electricity Large 1 GWe ? ? no Fusion in the future energy mix

Cost 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Fusion plant cost division 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Decommissioning O&M cost Capital cost replacement Capital cost plant Capital cost fusion core 0% 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Does it become cheaper? Cost example: Investment cost million Euros 2030 10, 000 Total cost 8, 000 Fusion core Building 6, 000 ? Cost of fusion electricity 16€ct/k. Wh 2100 4, 000 Cost of fusion 2, 000 electricity 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix 7 -9 €ct/k. Wh

Operation 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Load following • Fusion is high investment/low running cost • But load following with about 50% power variation is possible 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Potential 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Fusion “fast” track? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

How fast can we grow? • • • 1 reactor in 2035 1 commercial reactor in 2050 10 commercial reactors in 2060 Growth no higher than 10 -15% per year 250 -2500 reactors in 2100. • This is 4 -35% of global electricity in 2100 • So < 10% of total energy in 2100. 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Public acceptance 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Public opinion: Eurobarometer 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Public opinion: informed students Informed energy students (VU) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Yes No DKn Public safety Long term Waste Contribute to global warming Fuel is abundant More research is required Why don’t they trust us? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Environment 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Environment • No Greenhouse gasses • No other chemical pollutants • Radioactive waste? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Anti-ITER site in Canada 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Bulk radioactive waste: OK 1 Nuclear Fission Light Water Reactor Curies/Watt (Thermal Power) 10 -2 10 -4 Fusion Vanadium Alloys Fusion Ferritic Steel 10 -6 Level of Coal Ash Fusion Silicon Carbide Composites 10 -8 10 -10 1 2 february 2004 10 100 Years After Shutdown Fusion in the future energy mix 10000

Tritium “If 10 g of tritium is released to the atmosphere, no evacuation of the direct environment outside the site is required“ Question: What if all of the 1. 5 kg are released? 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Nuclear fusion Cost Application Scale Operation Public acceptance Potential Environment Political tension 2 february 2004 7 -16€cts Electricity Large 1 GWe Continuous/variable Be very careful <5% in 2100 Good, but no Fusion in the future energy mix

“If all the money given to fusion would go to renewables this would solve the world’s energy problems “ 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

EU-15 Energy support Fusion: 2. 3% R&D private public Totaal: 18 Billion Euro/year Subsidies: 15 Billion Euro • 7. 5 Billion fossil • 3. 5 Billion Renewables • 3. 5 Billion energy saving • 0. 5 Billion Nuclear fission Energy subsidy R&D Private: 1 Billion Euro R&D Public : 2 Billion Euro Source: Delft-CE 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Which part may remain fossil? Energy consumption (EJ) 1600 1400 1200 >80% carbon free 1000 800 50% carbon free 600 400 550 ppm 200 Now 80% fossil 19 90 20 00 20 10 20 20 20 30 20 40 20 50 20 60 20 70 20 80 20 90 21 00 0 Year 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix Source: VN, IPCC

Plan for the future Now-2030 2 february 2004 - Efficiency improvement Wind and biomass Coal Gas Solar PV R&D Energy storage R&D Nuclear fusion R&D CO 2 sequestration R&D Generation IV fission R&D Fusion in the future energy mix

Plan for the future 2030 -2050 2 february 2004 - CO 2 sequestration Energy storage Wind en biomass Solar competitive? Fusion works? Continue energy R&D! Fusion in the future energy mix

Plan for the future 2050 -2100 2 february 2004 In this era we need all the options we can get - Energy storage works well - So many renewable options - Solar PV is competitive - Fusion works Fusion in the future energy mix

Fusion and the energy mix • No single new energy source can replace fossil fuels. • Therefore an extensive energy mix is required • To achieve this large R&D and implementation budgets are required • Fusion could play a significant role at the end of the century, but does not offer a single solution. 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

The energy mantra should be We need to invest in all new options for energy production. We should not fight each other, but join forces towards policy makers. Fusion comes late, but will arrive exactly at the time when the need is the highest 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Thank you for your attention 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Welk aandeel mag fossiel blijven? Energy consumption (EJ) 1600 1400 A 2 A 1 1200 B 2 1000 800 B 1 600 400 200 19 90 20 00 20 10 20 20 20 30 20 40 20 50 20 60 20 70 20 80 20 90 21 00 0 Year 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix IIASA

Is energy equally distributed on earth? • A Chinaman uses 10 times less energy than an American. • At the end of this century this will still be only a third 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix

Relative energy consumption person Equal energy distribution? 1. 2 IIASA/WEC 1998: business as usual scenario 2000 2050 1. 0 2100 0. 8 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 0 2000 2050 2100 North America 2 february 2004 2000 2050 2100 Western Europe India and China Fusion in the future energy mix Afrika

CO 2 emissions (Gt Carbon) Resource limitations or climate change? Conventional 3500 3000 Conventional (upper) 2500 Unconventional 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Oil Gas Coal Historic 550 1000 1880 -now ppm 2 february 2004 Fusion in the future energy mix