FRONTAL SYSTEMS CLIMATOLOGY OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND

FRONTAL SYSTEMS CLIMATOLOGY OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN A CLIMATE GCM SIMULATION Iracema FA Cavalcanti Luiz Henrique R. Coura da Silva Third Meeting of Co. Pis PROSUL/ IAI/CRN 055 Mar del Plata, Oct. 2002

• SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL • LARGE DISPERSION AMONG MEMBERS • LOW PREDICTABILITY • OCCURRENCE OF ZCAS • SOUTHERN BRAZIL • SMALL DISPERSION • HIGHER PREDICTABILITY • FRONTAL SYSTEMS

CRITERIUM TO SELECT CASES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS • SOUTHEASTERN: 20 S-24 S; 47 W-43 W • SOUTHERN: 25 S-35 S; 48 W-58 W • REDUCTION OF SPATIAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ABOVE A LIMIT VALUE IN 3 DAYS. • INCREASE OF SLP ABOVE A LIMIT VALUE IN 3 DAYS. • SOUTHEARLY MERIDIONAL WIND.

CASE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OCCURRENCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL SIMULATED IN ONE INTEGRATION

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM

ENSEMBLE AVERAGE

COND 1 COND 2 COND 3 COND 4 COND 5 COND 6 COND 7 COND 8 COND 9

SOUTHEAST 9 CONDITIONS 10 YEARS SOUTH

NUMBER OF CASES FOR SON SOUTH

NUMBER OF CASES FOR SON SOUTHEAST

AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGION SON 1990

SON 1990 DAY -1 DAY +1

AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGION MAM 1990

MAM 1990 DAY -1 DAY +1

AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGION DJF 1990/1991

DJF 1990/1991 DAY -1 DAY +1

AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHERN REGION JJA 1990

JJA 1990 DAY -1 DAY +1

AVERAGE FIELDS OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS CASES OVER SOUTHEASTERN REGION

EXTREME CASES OF PRECIPITATION

IN DEVELOPMENT • ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS • AND • ANALYSE THE CONTRIBUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS TO THE PREDICTION OF MONTHLY AND SEASONAL PRECIPITATION