From China Daily Official View Beijing Consensus Chinas

From China Daily – Official View Beijing Consensus China’s Alternative Development Model

Jan 28, 2018

The Beijing Consensus • The Beijing Consensus (also sometimes called the "China Model" or "Chinese Economic Model"[1]) is a term that refers to the political and especially economic policies of the People's Republic of China[2] that began after the death of Mao Zedong and the rehabilitation of Deng Xiaoping (1976) and are thought to have contributed to China's eightfold growth in gross national product over two decades. [3][4] The phrase "Beijing Consensus" was coined by Joshua Cooper Ramo to pose China's economic development model as an alternative — especially for developing countries — to the Washington Consensus of market-friendly policies promoted by the IMF, World Bank and U. S. Treasury. [5][6]

The Beijing Consensus • More a notion than true program or idea • “Fusion of Chinese thinking with lessons learned from the failure of globalization culture in other places” (Ramo, 2004, 5)

Three overarching ideals 1. Innovation 2. Pursuit of Dynamic Goals/Rejection of Per capita GDP 3. Self Determination

1. Innovation • Government actively innovates • Constant tinkering & change • Examples: One child policy, stock market intervention, Yuan intervention…

1. Innovation • Government actively innovates • Constant tinkering & change • Examples: One child policy, stock market intervention, Yuan intervention… China is willing to keep intervening in the stock market to make sure a few speculators don’t benefit at the expense of regular investors, China’s vice president said in an interview. http: //www. bloomberg. com/news/articles/2016 -01 -21/china-vice-president-vows-to-look-after-stock-marketinvestors

2. Pursuit of Dynamic Goals/ Rejection of Per capita GDP • Measures like HDI (Human Development Index) more important than GPD/capita • 5 balances (next slide) A large variety of indices exist as noted below Rank Country 1 Switzerland 2 Denmark 3 New Zealand 4 Germany 5 Australia 45 Brazil 46 China 47 Iran 48 Pakistan 49 Singapore Quality of Life Purchasing Index Power Index 208. 54 206. 49 201. 06 199. 7 198. 79 178. 74 142. 14 115. 47 147. 61 147. 25 101. 02 99. 03 96. 93 93. 99 93. 09 74. 27 74. 33 63. 63 67. 05 56. 88 48. 69 77. 42 47. 73 43. 34 110. 5 Health Care Index Safety Index 68. 88 81. 89 72. 6 75. 85 73. 71 28. 77 67. 92 47. 63 43. 37 84. 19 Consumer Price Index 123. 1 84. 88 78. 17 65. 54 78. 45 51. 09 61. 2 49. 83 61. 27 69. 06 Property Price Traffic to Income Commute Ratio Time Index 8. 57 5. 85 6. 28 7. 13 8. 43 38. 88 48. 1 41. 12 26. 69 83. 67 28. 73 25. 64 31. 1 29. 07 34. 65 17. 95 24. 98 14. 78 15. 27 23. 17 Pollution Index 23. 02 29. 93 19. 04 29. 91 22. 88 46. 12 44. 09 48. 15 36. 85 43. 43 Climate Index 70. 5 70. 65 88. 35 63. 02 77. 33 61. 18 85. 54 84. 21 76. 64 38. 83 72. 6 46. 59 74. 61 41. 17 -66. 63

MOST IMPROVED http: //hdr. undp. org/en/countries/profiles/CHN

5 Balances: Putting People First 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Urban – rural development Regional development Economic and social development Man and Nature balance Domestic and international balance

3. Self Determination • Refusing to let Western Powers to impose their will • Highly attractive to other LDCs – especially Africa

Unwritten Characteristic of Self Determination • Muscular input by Autocratic CCP

Can the Beijing Consensus Continue?

Good Short Critique https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=5 Vx-GPMRc 7 o&t=12 s

https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Uv. PJUy 3 m. Fl 4

Ruchir Sharma’s critique In 2015 Bloomberg Markets one of the 50 Most Influential people in the world

http: //www. wsj. com/video/opinion-journal-the-end-of-the-beijing-consensus/3509 A 0 B 6 -6116 -467 F-91 F 708 B 3950 CD 93 C. html

https: //www. bing. com/videos/search? q=the+rise+and+fall+of+nations+sharma&view=detail&mid=305 4 C 51 C 1 F 38 B 7 A 45 FC 63054 C 51 C 1 F 38 B 7 A 45 FC 6&FORM=VIRE

Sharma’s 4 D’s 1. 2. 3. 4. De-Globalization De-Population Debt De-Democratisation

1. De-Globalization The Economist Magazine January 26 -February 1, 2019 - “Slowbalisation”

2. De-Population • Regional phenomena

What might China’s future be? Japan’s Peak 1995

Underlying factor -- population

2. De-Population http: //www. japantimes. co. jp/news/2015/01/05/national/numbers-tell-tale-japans-postwar-rise-fall/#. WIZd. Dl. Ur. KUk Will Chinese Economy Stall like the Japanese did in 1990 in the year 2020? 2030?

3. Debt 2008 Melt Down

China’s Growing Debt 2008 Not much different then Japan’s current debt to GDP ratio of 254% https: //www. bloomberg. com/quicktake/chinas-debt-bomb

4. De-Democratisation High to Low Global Democracy Index

https: //www. scmp. com/comment/insight-opinion/unitedstates/article/2185438/china-has-no-use-democracy-it-needs-strong

Question for Class, what might Hayak have to say?

So, what is China’s Future? Past Growth Future? ? ? TFP –Total Factor Productivity Growth Rate Currently at 6. 5%, about as projected Slower but still Growing? ?

REVIEW How the three characteristics translate into practice

Beijing Consensus (Self Determination) Among the characteristics attributed to the "China Model" by Western commentators include: • replacing trust in the free market for economic growth with "a more muscular state hand on the levers of capitalism"; [14] • an absence of political liberalization; [3] • strong leading role of ruling political party; [3] • population control; [15] https: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Beijing_Consensus

Beijing Consensus (Dynamic Goals & Innovation) According to academic and former Chinese official Zhang Weiwei, the "key features" of the model are: • down-to-earth pragmatic concern with serving the people; [13] • constant trial and error experimentation; [13] • gradual reform rather than neo-liberal economic shock therapy; [13] • a strong and pro-development state; [13] • "selective cultural borrowing" of foreign ideas; [13] • a pattern of implementing easy reforms first, difficult ones later. [13] https: //en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Beijing_Consensus

Caution ZHANG, Weiwei (2 November 2006). "The allure of the Chinese model" (PDF). International Herald Tribune. Retrieved 28 January 2014. It is inaccurate to describe the Chinese model as the "Beijing consensus" versus the "Washington consensus. " What makes the Chinese experience unique is that Beijing has safeguarded its own policy space as to when, where and how to adopt foreign ideas. Zhang Weiwei is a Chinese professor of international relations at Fudan University, and a senior research fellow at the Chunqiu Institute.

Discussion • WTO and the Washington vs. Beijing Consensus (in 2 minutes) Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=imw. Sde Z 0 ytk

Good Review Slideshow https: //www. slideshare. net/supergecko/beijing-consensus-narrates