frente do nosso tempo LSA SAF Forest fire

à frente do nosso tempo LSA SAF Forest fire Luís Pessanha Institute of Meteorology Portugal luis. pessanha@meteo. pt Thanks to Land-SAF Consortium 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 1

à frente do nosso tempo Introduction Factors of Forest Fire Natural • Meteorological conditions • Land cover • Vegetation conditions Not yet considered other factors as: • Topography: slope, orientation, sun exposure, natural firebreaks (rivers). . . • Social factors: land use, roads, prevention/detection/firefighting means 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 2

à frente do nosso tempo Forest fire risk factors Weather – temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation Fuel status – soil moisture content, evapotranspiration Fuel – Land cover 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 3

à frente do nosso tempo Forest fire risk factors Weather – temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation Fuel status – soil moisture content, evapotranspiration Fuel – Land cover, topography Structural risk 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 4

Forest fire risk factors à frente do nosso tempo Conjectural risk Weather – temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation Fuel status – soil moisture content, evapotranspiration Fuel – Land cover, topography Structural risk 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 5

Forest fire risk factors à frente do nosso tempo Conjectural risk Daily computed at IM FWI Weather – temperature, wind, (Canadian Fire Weather humidity, precipitation Index) Risk. Fuel associated a Veg. index status –to soil moisture (NDVI) content, evapotranspiration Structural Fuel – Land cover, risk topography Risk associated to a land cover map (CORINE) Structural risk Computed once a year on the beginning of the fire season 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 6

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF The ICRIF (Combined Wild Fire Risk Index) combines several risk factors, taking into account both, structural and meteorological indices: v. FWI v. Fuel map, based on CORINE 2000 v. NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 7

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF FWI The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) is in operational use in the Portuguese Meteorological Institute (IM). Easy to compute ØUses meteorological variables ØVery suitable for fire behaviour in Europe ØRecommended by European Commission (1995) 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 8

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF FWI 105 meteorological stations o The FWI is calculated in each of the 85 meteorological stations from IM and 20 meteorological stations from INAG, in Portugal. o The meteorological parameters required to compute the FWI are: air temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and velocity measured at 10 m height, and rainfall in the last 24 hours. o This index was compared with several others indices and shows a very good performance 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 9

à frente do nosso tempo Structural risk v. Makes use of CORINE 2000 database to assess land cover and vegetation type map v. A value risk was associated to each land cover type (Weights scaled from 0 to 100) v. Structural risk level for fire ignition and propagation, is processed, scaling CORINE 2000 at spatial resolution of 1. 1 km (NOAA/AVHRR resolution at nadir) 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 10

à frente do nosso tempo CORINE 2000 CORINE Land Cover 2000 The European Topic Centre Land Use and Spatial Information (ETC-LUSI), is an international consortium assisting the European Environment Agency 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 11

à frente do nosso tempo CORINE 2000 Changes on land use and land cover for Portugal between CLC 90 and CLC 2000. Area (ha) Land cover 1990 Land cover 2000 147449 312 Coniferous forest 324 Transitional woodland shrub 104691 324 Transitional woodland shrub 311 Broad-leaved forest 74936 324 Transitional woodland shrub 312 Coniferous forest 66849 311 Broad-leaved 324 Transitional forest woodland shrub 57924 313 Mixed forest 4 -7 April 2011 324 Transitional woodland shrub 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 12

à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 Structural risk - CORINE 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 13

Structural risk - CORINE à frente do nosso tempo Risk factor Risk associated to a land cover map (CORINE) 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 14

Structural Risk à frente do nosso tempo Risk associated to a land cover map (CORINE) 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 15

à frente do nosso tempo Structural Risk v. Each pixel is represented by a vector with 42 elements, giving the area occupied by each of the CORINE components v. The structural risk was built assigning a risk to each of the classes (Rk) v The final structural risk (FUELRISK) for each pixel is a combination of the different risk pondered by the corresponded area FUELRISK = (Ak * Rk) 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 16

à frente do nosso tempo Structural Risk Forests are periodically burnt, resulting in an immediate change of the land cover in the burnt surface. This can result in the recover of natural vegetation or forest species that were or not present before the fire, but anyway, affecting the structural fire risk map. The new characterisation of the land cover, is done, updating the value of the fuel risk pixel value for the area. This update shall be done at least once a year on the beginning of the fire season (April) using imagery and observing changes in the NDVI index. 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 17

NDVI à frente do nosso tempo AVHRR/NOAA • the best satellite angle • a passage over Portugal between 11 -15 UTC - zenith solar angle less than 55º CH 1 (VIS): 0. 58 - 0. 68 m CH 2 (NIR): 0. 725 - 1. 1 m 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 18

à frente do nosso tempo NDVI A shift composite of 10 days NDVI is computed – considering the maximum value of NDVI in 10 days 1 May 2008 4 -7 April 2011 1 October 2008 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 19

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF The highest ICRIF values are related to: • Meteorological conditions that lead to high forest fire risk (high temperature, low relative humidity, etc. ) • Forest regions, where the weight given by the structural risk increases the ICRIF value 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 20

à frente do nosso tempo OBS 2ªf – 21. Jul. 08 4 -7 April 2011 ICRIF H+24 3ªf – 22. Jul. 08 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” H+48 4ªf – 23. Jul. 08 Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 21

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF May 2008 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 22

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF June 2008 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 23

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF July 2008 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 24

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF August 2008 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 25

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF validation The validation of a fire risk is not easy. In general validation is trying to link forest fire events (number and burnt areas) with the risk 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 26

ICRIF Greatest burnt area in 2007 à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF 20/8/2007 was resisted the greatest burnt area in the year in Freguesia do Sardoal (Santarém) 2820 ha 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 27

à frente do nosso tempo Validation Distrito 4 -7 April 2011 #Pixels V. Castelo 3299 Bragança 9700 V. Real 6341 Braga 3980 Porto 3383 Guarda 7917 Viseu 7203 Aveiro 4025 Coimbra 5609 C. Branco 9295 Leiria 4889 Santarem 9249 Portalegre 8347 Évora 9982 Lisboa 3823 Setúbal 6763 Beja 13569 Faro 6508 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 28

Example ICRIF Table 2008 à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 29

à frente do nosso tempo ICRIF Ø A six class histogram of ICRIF is daily computed for all Districts. Ø The six classes of ICRIF are the following: 1)- ]0, 5] 2)- ]5, 15] 3)- ]15, 25] 4)- ]25, 35] 5)- ]35, 45] 6)- ]45, 100[ 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 30

à frente do nosso tempo Validation • The correlation coefficient between number of pixel with ICRIF value above 25/35, and burnt areas/number of occurrences was above 60% for all districts (May–August). • The correlation coefficient was better for occurrence number than for burnt areas • The correlation coefficient was better when the occurrence number was higher 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 31

à frente do nosso tempo Validation SANTARÉM Burned area 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 32

à frente do nosso tempo Validation SANTARÉM 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 33

Validation à frente do nosso tempo VIANA DO CASTELO Burned area 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 34

Validation à frente do nosso tempo VIANA DO CASTELO 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 35

à frente do nosso tempo Validation BRAGA Burned area 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 36

à frente do nosso tempo Validation BRAGA 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 37

à frente do nosso tempo Validation Portugal Burned area/10 Burned area/10 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 38

à frente do nosso tempo Validation How it is possible to use of MSG LSA SAF ideas to improve and validate ICRIF 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 39

à frente do nosso tempo Produtos LSA SAF products linked with wild fires: ØOn-going (depending of documentation upgrade and shall be ready after next review and SG decision, before next Summer) Fire Detection and Monitoring (FD&M) Risk of Fire Map (RFM) ØOperations Fire Radiative Power (FRPPixel) 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 40

Wild Fire products - FD&M à frente do nosso tempo Active fires detected in Europe in 2007 Colours with the number identified fires in the pixel. 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey Workshop: “A Meteorologia na Prevenção Incêndios Florestais”, “MSG Land dos Surface Applications: Drought. Instituto & Fires” de Meteorologia - Lisboa, 16 Junho de 2010 41

Wild Fire products - FD&M à frente do nosso tempo Active fires detected in Europe in 2008 Colours with the number identified fires in the pixel. 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey Workshop: “A Meteorologia na Prevenção Incêndios Florestais”, “MSG Land dos Surface Applications: Drought. Instituto & Fires” de Meteorologia - Lisboa, 16 Junho de 2010 42

Wild Fire products - FD&M à frente do nosso tempo Active fires detected in Europe in 2009 Colours with the number identified fires in the pixel. 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey Workshop: “A Meteorologia na Prevenção Incêndios Florestais”, “MSG Land dos Surface Applications: Drought. Instituto & Fires” de Meteorologia - Lisboa, 16 Junho de 2010 43

Wild Fire products - FD&M à frente do nosso tempo Active fires detected in Portugal 2008 2007 Act. Fires Pixels of fires 4 -7 April 2011 2007 95 37 2009 2008 233 71 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop 2009 3023 412 Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey Workshop: “A Meteorologia na Prevenção Incêndios Florestais”, “MSG Land dos Surface Applications: Drought. Instituto & Fires” de Meteorologia - Lisboa, 16 Junho de 2010 44

à frente do nosso tempo Wild Fire products - FRP v. FIRE RADIATIVE POWER (FRP) – 15 minutes and operational The Fire Radiative Power (FRP) algorithm aims to estimate the Fire Radiative Power generated during fire events. The FRP of a fire, is measured in megawatts (MW), representing the amount of radiant heat energy liberated per unit time from the burning. 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 45

Carbone released into atmosphere à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 46

Carbone released into atmosphere à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 47

Carbone released into atmosphere à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 48

Validation à frente do nosso tempo Wild fire database Weekly distribution ØMapping wild fires (space and time) ØBurnt area quantification End of the Season ØImproved mapping wild fires (space and time) ØImproved burnt area quantification It is possible to compare (NRT) the Carbone released into atmosphere with fire risk 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 49

à frente do nosso tempo Validation Biomass (green), Carbone (red) and burned areas in Portugal (blue – right axis) ha 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 50

à frente do nosso tempo Validation Biomass (green), Carbone (red) and burned areas in Portugal (blue – right axis) ha 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 51

à frente do nosso tempo Validation Biomass (green), Carbone (red) and burned areas in Portugal (blue – right axis) ha 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 52

Validation à frente do nosso tempo Contingency table ICRIF>45 v Burnt area > 1 ha District OK (%) NO (%) District Leiria 73 27 Aveiro 67 33 Lisboa 56 44 Beja 56 44 Portalegre 64 36 Braga 58 42 Porto 47 53 Bragança 70 30 Santarém 71 29 Cast Branco 74 26 Setúbal 70 30 Coimbra 79 21 Viana do Castelo 51 49 Évora 64 36 Vila Real 66 34 Faro 57 42 Viseu 68 32 Guarda 71 29 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” OK (%) NO (%) Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 53

à frente do nosso tempo Validation The approach is to validate results of ICRIF in the same was as it is used to validate LSA SAF Risk Fire Map (RFM). Reference: “Using active fires derived from MSGSEVIRI imagery to calibrate the Fire Weather Index and generate maps of risk of fire over Mediterranean Europe”-Teresa J. Calado, Carlos C. Da. Camara e Malik Amraoui” This publication shows that the Wild Fire duration, follow the Generalised Pareto Distribution (2 parameters) 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 54

à frente do nosso tempo Validation v. The goal is to study the probability relationship between ICRIF values and the occurrence of fires with a duration above certain limits (10, 20, 30, 40 e 50 slots MSG de 15 min). v. And if it is possible to use ICRIF as a covariable to model the parameters probability (scale and tail) of Generalized Pareto probability distribution) 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 55

à frente do nosso tempo FRM – FWI (LSA SAF Product) Histogram of frequencies (black) and probability function (red line) to bush in the Iberian Peninsula. Reference: “Estimating meteorological risk of fire over the Iberian Peninsula”Carlos C. Da. Camara et al, 2010 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 56

à frente do nosso tempo Validation IM is carrying tests in ICRIF Preliminary results shows the same behaviour. Test to confirm (or not) are at moment being conducted 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 57

Validation à frente do nosso tempo 10 Probability 20 30 40 Relation between ICRIF and the probability the occurrence of fires with a duration above 10, 20, 30, 40 MSG slots. ICRIF 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 58

à frente do nosso tempo Validation Duration of fires and risk # of consecutives slots 1% 5% Relation between ICRIF and the probability function 10% ICRIF 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 59

LSA SAF Carbone released à frente do nosso tempo It is possible to estimate the amount of CO 2 (CO 2 equivalent) assuming that all Carbone released into atmosphere is oxidized. (There are other gases with small green house 60 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop effect that can also be included). 4 -7 April 2011 Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires”

LSA SAF Carbone released à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 61

LSA SAF Carbone released à frente do nosso tempo 201008 4 -7 April 2011 201009 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” 201010 Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 62

LSA SAF Carbone released à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 63

LSA SAF Carbone released à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 64

LSA SAF Carbone released à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 65

LSA SAF Carbone released à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 66

LSA SAF Carbone released à frente do nosso tempo 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 67

à frente do nosso tempo 201008 Conclusions 201009 201010 v. It will be good if wild fires risk can be linked with the fires occurrences through a probability function v. FRP can be used to estimate emissions of Carbone into atmosphere (including CO 2) 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 68

Thank you again for: à frente do nosso tempo vthe time vthe cake vthe patience vthe presents v. . 4 -7 April 2011 2 nd SALGEE Training Workshop “MSG Land Surface Applications: Drought & Fires” Atlantis Hotel, Antalya, Turkey 69