Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Pete Bettinger

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Pete Bettinger Professor School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia Athens, GA USA Forest Planning Seminar Program Istanbul University Forestry Faculty 25 November 2013

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSS) Models and methodology for supporting forest management decisions and the decision-making process. Models and methodology for transferring knowledge from science into practical forest management. Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSS) Why do we need them? In today's management atmosphere, it is necessary to take into consideration economic, ecological, and social objectives and constraints. To be able to simultaneously consider multiple objectives and constraints, it is necessary to use contemporary models. Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul derin düşünmeyi

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSS) Why do we need them? To comply with: Regulations (current or proposed) Organizational policies Voluntary programs To improve management efficiency To evaluate landscape-level impacts To visualize alternatives To build trust among interest groups Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSS) Why do we need them? To provide some estimation of potential wood flows To understand the ramifications of strategies - the trade-offs among competing goals To provide direction on what to harvest (or reserve), as well as where to harvest (or reserve) To understand where to place certain management activities in relation to regulations Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Tools and data Forestry Model Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul Response Models Bettinger and Lennette. 2004. Oregon State University, Forest Research Laboratory, Research Contribution 43

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Example: Farm Forestry Toolbox* A collection of programs (tools) to assist forest owners and managers plan, monitor, and manage forests. Surveying and mapping Forest inventory Estimating forest growth Managing plantations for different scenarios Financial analysis Diagnosis of pests and diseases Carbon accounting *Forestry Tasmania Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Example: Silv. Assist* A single program that works in conjunction with Arc. GIS to help manage forest inventories. Forest sample design Comprehensive outputs Inventory management Growth and yield projections Track and plan management actions *F 4 Technology Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Example: Garcia-Gonzalo et al. (2013)* Leiria National Forest To generate strategic management plans for a National Forest To achieve a regulated age class area distribution To promote biodiversity To sustain a timber supply *Forest Systems 22(2): 359 -373 Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Example: Garcia-Gonzalo et al. (2013)* Leiria National Forest Four independent modules Information management Prescriptions generator Model generator Results viewer One single graphical interface 342 stands 100 year time horizon 4 scenarios Outcomes: Timber flows, forest values, Pareto frontier forest value vs. C stocks *Forest Systems 22(2): 359 -373 Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul Information management Costs and prices Inventory Spatial data Prescriptions generator Prescription generator Growth and yield model Model generator Management models Solver Results viewer Reports Graphics

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Ideal Case of FMDSS Easy to understand use Requires a limited amount of training Has an intuitive program interface Does not require too much data Utilizes a common language and set of terms Is readily available and easy to install The cost is reasonable (or it is free) Does not require licenses or keys Does not require extensive set-up procedures Reduces anxiety in using a new process Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Ideal Case of FMDSS The model well-tested It correctly models current practices A number of different scenarios have been tested Processing problems ("bugs") have been located and eliminated Professional testimony is available The process is well-documented A printed user's guide is available Online assistance is easy to use Trouble-shooting tips are available Increases user confidence in the process Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Ideal Case of FMDSS The model(s) use a common data format A number of different data management tools can be used to develop the data The data can be shared and edited easily Other processes can rely on this stability The process is updated as operating systems change The process will work with various versions of same operating system The process will work with different operating systems Increase acceptability of the process Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Ideal Case of FMDSS The processes are scientifically sound Functional relationships are recognized and correctly modeled Mathematical processes are appropriate Validation has occurred "Better" available methods are not really "better" Transferrable to other areas Uncertainties are considered Provides justification for using the process Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Ideal Case of FMDSS A broad users group is present Conferences Workshops On-line user's groups Networks Wikis Provides multiple avenues of assistance Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Problems Encountered in the Development of FMDSS Placed too much effort on data development Found that data were relatively unavailable Used old technology due to limited funds Failed to adapt to new technology Involved the wrong people Needed the involvement of decision makers Needed the involvement of stakeholders and users Were unsure of who were the future customers Had a limited budget for development Placed limited effort on documentation Applied limited effort to training Received no support from direct management Found that periodic timelines were too restrictive Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul Data Technology People Organizational Commitment

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Worries Created with the Adoption of New Systems Work load increases New work patterns need to be developed Ownership and maintenance responsibilities change For data management For model processing New policies are created For data management For data acquisition For quality control For outcome distribution Power and influence may change Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Problems Encountered in the Continued Use of Specific FMDSS Users demand tools that had personalized options or reports Different versions of software emerge (e. g. , SNAP) Maintenance of tools became challenging for the developers Time Funding or cost (e. g. , LAMPS) Science and practice may have had different opinions of the importance of the tools Validity or reliability of estimates Usefulness of the tool Ability to incorporate various forms and qualities of data Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Current Advances in FMDSS Internet-based models or models that rely on cloud computing More efficient transfer of research to practice Less (or no) software compatibility problems Module- or component-based architecture Easier to maintain Easier to interface with other applications Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Summary FMDSS assist the human mind in determining objectively rational courses of action. As economic, ecological, and social goals change, our courses of action may change. As a result, over time FMDSS models tend to become: More sophisticated More complex Completely different than before Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Summary All models make simplifying assumptions regarding the system being analyzed in order to represent the problem in a tractable manner. The most one should expect from the outcomes is "guidance" for the manner in which natural resources should be managed. Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Summary The choice of decision support model should be based on the magnitude of the impact the time frame the budget available the degree to which the public should be involved Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Summary The success of a FMDSS is related to a number of issues that include The characteristics and quality of the modeling process The availability of data The availability of technology The availability of trained people The commitment of an organization to the development and maintenance of the program Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul

Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems Pete Bettinger Professor School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia Athens, GA USA Teşekkür ederim! Forest Planning Seminar Program Istanbul University Forestry Faculty 25 November 2013