FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES OF FOTONIKALV 20122015 Support from the

FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES OF FOTONIKA-LV 20122015 Support from the International Foresight Academy PROJECT PEOPLE-IRSES-GA-2011 -294959 University of Latvia 72 nd Annual Conference, 2014 -02 -05

Context What is foresight? Foresight methods Foresight activities proposed in the FOTONIKA-LV REGPOT 2011 -11 Project International Foresight Academy Plan foresight in Latvia Status TOPICS

FOTONIKA-LV project purpose: Unlocking and Boosting Research Potential for Photonics in Latvia – towards effective integration into the European Research Area How foresight can guide achievement of the potential for photonics in Latvia? EC competitiveness policy Smart specialization & cluster policy Key enabling technologies EU cohesion policy Latvia’s long term development strategy CONTEXT

Foresight addresses the problem that we are responsible for creating the future, but the future is inherently unpredictable from any single point of reference. What makes the future unpredictable is that individual actors make decisions based largely on their personal experience and frame of reference while technological developments and environmental change result in emergent forms of social order that have never existed. The less predictable the future, the higher the level of risk associated with decisions. Foresight is an attempt to make the future more knowable by systematically pooling the insights of many actors with many different forms of experience and points of view to enable policy makers to anticipate emergent order and thereby make better decisions and more effective policy. WHAT IS FORESIGHT

Nokia was the world leader in mobile phones. Nokia put its customers at the center of its strategy and created products that met their needs, better than anyone else Nokia did not anticipate how teenagers would «misuse» their phones and create a new, much larger market. Nokia lost much of its market to Apple, that created the new market LOSING THE FUTURE

Latvia must anticipate the future to survive LATVIA CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE ITS FUTURE.

Source – SAMI Consulting

SWOT analysis Stakeholder analysis Extrapolative forecasting including econometric models Cross-impact analysis Systems dynamics and other models Scenarios, narratives and backcasting Delphi method Surveys Network analysis Key, critical technology method Road mapping Others……. . FORESIGHT METHODS

Three strategic foresight seminars Secondments with institutes that offer foresight services: Frauenhofer Institute for Systems Innovation – Dr. Kerstin Cuhls led foresight workshop in Riga International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Dr. O. Balcers and Sandra Smalina FORESIGHT IN FOTONIKA-LV

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis , Austria; Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Switzerland; The Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding, Romania; Finland Future Research centrum at Turku University; The Interdisciplinary Centre for Technological Analysis and Forecasting at Tel Aviv University; Israel; Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation, Brazil The Latin American School of Social Sciences, Argentine; Foresight Canada; Higher School of Economics, Russia Science & Technology Policy Institute, South Korea FOTONIKA-LV Association of Research Institutes INTERNATIONAL FORESIGHT ACADEMY

the future is being thought about Latvia 2030, NAP 2020 often in response to EU requirements Foresight methods are known, but policy tends to be short term focused, driven by personal interests and ambitions of powerful individuals FORESIGHT MATURITY IN LATVIA

Pilot use of foresight with a photonics foresight exercise linking government, research institutes, education and business Use the 3 foresight seminars in the FOTONIKA-LV project along with the International Foresight Academy to develop a roadmap for photonics and quantum sciences and technologies for Latvia FORESIGHT PILOT IN LATVIA

Secure participation of the Ministry of Education and Science and the Ministry of Economics in the foresight process. Organize Foresight Seminar 1. , Project kickoff to introduce the foresight program, present what is known about photonics and quantum science and technology capabilities in Latvia, and outline the Delphi survey process that follows Conduct Delphi survey process to develop technology market outlook and to rank high potential market niches or R&D opportunities that fit capabilities in Latvia Organize Seminar 2 to present and discuss results of the technology – market outlook followed by a Delphi survey process as input to the development of the photonics and quantum science and technologies roadmap for Latvia Prepare roadmap document Seminar 3. Present and discuss the Photonics and Quantum Science and Technology (PQST) Roadmap and its role in the formulation of the PQST strategic plan. Finalize the PQST strategic plan Present the 4 PQST strategic plan to the Cluster members for their review, input and approval FORESIGHT PILOT PLAN

Review outlook for photonics and quantum technology markets identifying those where there is a potential matchup with capabilities in Latvia in R&D, product development, production, or marketing and sales. Identify photonics technologies and specific market niches with high and extremely high growth potential in the 2014 -2020 + timeframe. Identify capabilities in photonics research, product development, and production in Latvia Identify gaps in capabilities in Latvia that are needed to realize opportunities with extremely high growth potential Identify barriers to for Latvian R&D and business, particularly SME’s, to achieve success in the identified market niches. Develop a plan for Latvia to achieve success in high potential market niches Where to focus RD&I, Specific EU funding programs to target Partnership targets to fill capability gaps to realize opportunities POSSIBLE FORESIGHT OBJECTIVES

Riga Photonics Center Šķūņu iela 4 Rīga, LV-1050 Latvia Vidvuds Beldavs Vid. beldavs-@-fotonika-lv. eu +371 -2786201