Forecasting Room Availability v Front office managers do

Forecasting Room Availability v. Front office managers do this as short-term planning to know the number of rooms available for future reservation v. It helps to manage the room inventory effectively as the number of rooms are fixed v. The forecasted availability and occupancy numbers are important to the daily operations v. It is the foundation for making room pricing decisions, set room aside for OOO for maintenance or deep cleaning as well as for HR planning for the entire room & food division

Forecasting Room Availability v. Skill of forecasting is complex and can be acquired through experience, effective recordkeeping and accurate counting methods v. Following types of information can be helpful in room availability forecasting: • A thorough knowledge of the hotel and its surrounding area • Market profiles of the constituencies the hotel serves • Occupancy data for the past several months and for the same period of the previous year

Forecasting Room Availability • Reservation trends and a history of reservation lead times (how far in advance) • A listing of special events scheduled in the surrounding geographic area • Business and historical profiles of specific groups booked for the forecast dates • The number of non-guaranteed and guaranteed reservation and an estimate of the number of expected no shows • The percentage of rooms are already reserved and the cut-off date for group room blocks held for the forecast dates

Forecasting Room Availability • The room availability of the most important competing hotels for the forecast dates (as discovered by blind calls) • The impact of citywide or multi-hotel groups and their potential influence on the forecast dates • Plans for remodeling or renovating the hotel that would change the number of available rooms • Construction or renovating plans for competitive hotels in the area

Forecasting Data • The process of forecasting room availability generally relies on historical occupancy data. • To facilitate forecasting, the following daily occupancy data should be collected: • No. of expected room arrivals • No. of expected room walk-ins • No. of expected room stayovers (rooms occupied on previous nights that’ll continue to be occupied for the night in question) • No. of expected room no-shows • No. of expected room understays • No. of expected room check-outs • No. of expected room overstays

Forecasting Data • Percentage of No-Shows = Number of The process of No-Shows Number of Room Reservations • Percentage of Walk-Ins = Number of Room Walk-Ins Total Number of Room Arrivals

Forecasting Data • Percentage of Over-Stays = Number of Over-stay Rooms Number of Expected Check-Outs • Percentage of Under-stays = Number of Under-stay Rooms Number of Expected Check-Outs

Forecast Formula Number of Rooms Available for Sale Total No. of Guestrooms - No. of OOO Rooms - No. of Room Stayovers - No. of Room Reservations + No. of Room Reservations × % of No-Shows + No of Room Understays - Number of Room Overstays ____________________ Number of Rooms Available for Sale

Establishing Overstays & Understays ØUnderstay rooms represent permanently lost room revenue ØOverstays may boost room revenues. It is a boon when the hotel is not operating at full capacity ØIn order to regulate both, front office staff should: • Confirm or reconfirm guest’s DOD at registration • Present an alternate guestroom reservation form to registered guest to overstay guests • Review guest history • Contact potential overstay guests, especially those who have not left by check-out time

Forecast Formula ØYak & Yeti, a 120 room property, where on April 1 there are 03 Out of Order (OOO) and 55 stayovers. ØOn that day there are 40 guests with reservation scheduled to arrive. Since the % of no show has been recently calculated at 20% ØThe FOM therefore calculates that as many as 08 guests with reservations may not arrive ØBased on historical data, 6 understays and 15 overstays are also expected. ØThe No. of rooms projected to be available for sale on Dec. 01 can be determined as follows:

Forecast Formula Number of Rooms Available for Sale Total No. of Guestrooms 120 - No. of OOO Rooms 3 - No. of Room Stayovers 55 - No. of Room Reservations 40 + No. of Room Reservations × % of No-Shows + 8 + No of Room Understays +6 - No of Room Overstays -15 _____________________ Number of Rooms Available for Sale 21

Forecast Formula ØUnderstay rooms represent permanently lost room revenue ØOverstays may boost room revenues. It is a boon when the hotel is not operating at full capacity ØIn order to regulate both, front office staff should: • Confirm or reconfirm guest’s DOD at registration • Present an alternate guestroom reservation form to registered guest • Review guest history • Contact potential overstay guests, especially those who have not left by check-out time