forecasting longterm forecasting middleterm forecasting shortterm forecasting 2
- Slides: 16
• 預測(forecasting) § 長期預測(long-term forecasting) § 中期預測( middle-term forecasting ) § 短期預測( short-term forecasting ) 2 Production and Operation Management: Building Product and Service Benchmark Production and Operation Management: t: : Building 1. 預測的意義
§ 優良預測的六項條件 v預測的時間性。 v預測的正確性。 v預測的可靠性。 v預測的書面化。 v預測的單位化。 v預測技術之簡單、易懂、容易使用。 4 Production and Operation Management: Building Product and Service Benchmark Production and Operation Management: t: : Building 3. 優良預測的條件
一、消費者調查 二、銷售人員的意見 三、主管的意見 四、外部銷售專家的意見 7 Production and Operation Management: Building Product and Service Benchmark Production and Operation Management: t: : Building 6. 判斷性預測法
• 時間數列的規則大致受到四種現象的影 響: § § 長期趨勢(secular trend) 循環變動(cyclical movement) 季節變動(seasonal variation) 偶然變動(irregular flunctuation) 8 Production and Operation Management: Building Product and Service Benchmark Production and Operation Management: t: : Building 7. 以時間數列資料為基礎的預測
9 Production and Operation Management: Building Product and Service Benchmark Production and Operation Management: t: : Building 7. 以時間數列資料為基礎的預測
一、平均法 二、天真預測法 三、移動平均法 § 移動平均預測法(moving average forecasts) 其中,i = 資料的期數(i=1, 2, 3, 4…); n = 移動平均之期數; Ai = 期數 i 之實際值; MAn = n 期之移動平均。 10 Production and Operation Management: Building Product and Service Benchmark Production and Operation Management: t: : Building 7. 以時間數列資料為基礎的預測
五、長期趨勢 分析 11 Production and Operation Management: Building Product and Service Benchmark Production and Operation Management: t: : Building 7. 以時間數列資料為基礎的預測
• 關聯性預測技巧 § 關聯性預測技巧發展方程式,以詮釋預測變 數,通常使用迴歸分析。 12 Production and Operation Management: Building Product and Service Benchmark Production and Operation Management: t: : Building 8. 關聯性預測技巧
一、簡單線性迴歸(1/2) 其中, yc = 被預測的相依變數; x = 預測的獨立變數; b = 直線的斜率; a = 當x = 0時之yc值(即y截距)。 13 Production and Operation Management: Building Product and Service Benchmark Production and Operation Management: t: : Building 8. 關聯性預測技巧
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