Forecasting in Business By Nam Nguyen Lam Nguyen
Forecasting in Business By: Nam Nguyen Lam Nguyen Thang Pham
WHAT IS FORECASTING?
Crtitical Importance of Forecasting - A loss of $100 million in sales in the 3 rd quarter of 2001 - Stock price dropped over 20% in just one week Failure in demand forecasting Rushed installation Nike’s failure in demand forecasting in 2001
QUESTIONS BEFORECASTING?
Changes to market Customer behaviour Resources
THREE FORECASTING METHODS Qualitative (Executive opinions; Delphi technique; Consumer surveys; Salesforce polling) Quantitative (Time-series models; Associative models ) Causal models
BUDGET V S FORECAST
Long-term forecasting V S Short-term forecasting
BULLWHIP EFFECT Manufacturer Retailer Distributor Customer Supplier
Customers Retailers High inventory Distributors Decreased revenue Manufacturers Material suppliers Waste
What contributes to the bullwhip effect? Disorganization Lack of communication Free return policies Order batching Price variations Thanks for watching!!! Demand information
MATERIALS: - Thanks for watching!!! SUPPLY CHAIN DIGTIAL BLOG VIET NAM PURCHASING CLUB OTEXT: https: //otexts. com/fpp 2/basic-steps. html CAFEF VIETNAM: http: //cafeft. com/topic/352/chu%E 1%BB%97 iqu%E 1%BA%A 3 n-tr%E 1%BB%8 B-cung-%E 1%BB%A 9 ngnh%E 1%BB%AFng-b%C 3%A 0 i-h%E 1%BB%8 Dc-t%E 1%BB%ABnike/3 - BLOG SUPPY CHAIN: http: //cmuscm. blogspot. com/2014/03/nikes-failure-in-adoptingsupply-chain. html - OTHER RELATED REFERENCES.
Th ks an at rw fo ch in g! !! THANKS FOR WATCHING!
- Slides: 13
