Forecast Verification Working group on Extended Range Prediction

Forecast Verification Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India

Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013 Onset declared by IMD: 1 st June 2013 Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11 member of CFSv 2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final forecasted onset date. Y axis on each panel is in mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for 850 h. Pa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset date and also written at the top of each panel

Verification F/C from 16 May IC CFSv 2 NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850 h. Pa) and R/F F/C from 16 May IC GFSbc

Verification F/C from 26 May IC CFSv 2 NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850 h. Pa) and R/F F/C from 26 May IC GFSbc

Spatial pentad mean pattern

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 1 -5 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 1 -5 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 31 May P 2 -lead, IC 26 May P 3 -lead, IC 21 May P 4 -lead, IC 16 May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 1 -5 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 1 -5 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 31 May P 2 -lead, IC 26 May P 3 -lead, IC 21 May P 4 -lead, IC 16 May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 6 -10 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 6 -10 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 5 Jun P 2 -lead, IC 31 May P 3 -lead, IC 26 May P 4 -lead, IC 21 May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 6 -10 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 6 -10 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 5 June P 2 -lead, IC 31 May P 3 -lead, IC 26 May P 4 -lead, IC 21 May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 11 -15 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 11 -15 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 10 June P 2 -lead, IC 5 June P 3 -lead, IC 31 May P 4 -lead, IC 26 May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 11 -15 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 11 -15 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 10 June P 2 -lead, IC 5 June P 3 -lead, IC 31 May P 4 -lead, IC 26 May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean r/f total (mm/day) For period 16 -20 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 16 -20 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 15 June P 2 -lead, IC 10 June P 3 -lead, IC 5 June P 4 -lead, IC 31 May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 16 -20 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 16 -20 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 15 June P 2 -lead, IC 10 June P 3 -lead, IC 5 June P 4 -lead, IC 31 May CFS GFSbc

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 21 -25 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 21 -25 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 20 June P 2 -lead, IC 15 June P 3 -lead, IC 10 June P 4 -lead, IC 5 June

Obs pentad mean anomaly(mm/day) For period 21 -25 June, 2013 Forecast valid For period 21 -25 June, 2013 P 1 -lead, IC 20 June P 2 -lead, IC 15 June P 3 -lead, IC 10 June P 4 -lead, IC 5 June

CFS-GFS Forecast Verification Over Homogenous Regions MZI, CEI, NWI & SPI

CFS, CEI

GFSbc, CEI

CFS, MZI

GFSbc, MZI

CFS, NEI

GFSbc, NEI

CFS, NWI

GFSbc, NWI

CFS, SPI

GFSbc, SPI

MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS 16 May IC 21 May IC

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 26 May IC 31 May IC

MISO F/C verification For 25 Days 5 Jun IC (OBS is for 20 days only)