Forecast for WINTER Season MYANMAR DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY

Forecast for WINTER Season MYANMAR DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY MYANMAR

Climate of Myanmar El-Nino/La-Nina Condition Content verification of the consensus forecast issued by SASCOF-9 Forecast for Northeast Monsoon season (Nov& Dec, 2017) & (Jan and Feb, 2018)

Climate of Myanmar Annual Rainfall & Heavy Rainfall episode Main Influence & Season Criteria for Heavy Rainfall (Dry Zone) Seasons Rainy Winter Summer Criteria for Heavy Rainfall (others) RF— 77 mm/24 hr and more Rainfall (mm) Coastal Area 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 RAK AYE YAN MON TAN Region & State Dry Zone Rainfall (mm) Monsoon System Southwest monsoon Northeast monsoon RF— 38 mm/24 hr and more 1500 1000 500 0 L_SA MAG Region MDY

El Nino and La Nina Condition

2016 NW Monsoon Condition and verification of the consensus forecast issued by SASCOF-9 for Northeast monsoon season

Definition of Normal, Above & Below of normal (Precipitation) ü NORMAL : AVERAGEAMOUNTOFPREVIOUS 30 YEARS (AT LEAST) RAINFALL DATA (BETWEEN -20 % AND +20 %) ü ABOVE NORMAL : > (+ 20%) OF THE NORMAL ü BELOW NORMAL : < (- 20%) OF THE NORMAL ü % DEPARTURE : (ACTUAL/NORMAL)*100 -100

Mean Temperature in November (1981 -2010) Actual Mean Temperature in November, 2016

Mean Temperature in December (1981 -2010) Actual Mean Temperature in December, 2016

Mean Temperature in January (1981 -2010) Actual Mean Temperature in January, 2016

Mean Temperature in February (1981 -2010) Actual Mean Temperature in February, 2017

Consensus Temp Outlook for the 2016 Northeast Monsoon And Actual Temp for Myanmar in NE Monsoon Season • During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region. Normal-NDJF Actual. NDJF

In 2016 winter season, q Above Normal Minimum temperature in Chin, Bago, Kayah and Mon q About normal in the Remaining Regions and States during winter season. Below Above

Normal Rainfall in October (1981 -2010) Actual Rainfall in October, 2016

Normal Rainfall in November (1981 -2010) Actual Rainfall in November, 2016

Normal Rainfall in December (1981 -2010) Actual Rainfall in December, 2016

Percentage Departure Rainfall in Oct, 2016 Below Normal Percentage Departure Rainfall in Nov, 2016 Normal Percentage Departure Rainfall in Dec, 2016 Above Normal

Verification with Actual and Consensus Outlook for the 2016 Northeast Monsoon Rainfall rainfall distribution is below normal and normal during the 2016 northeast monsoon Normal Below season (Oct – Dec) over Myanmar. Above •

Temperature and Rainfall Forecast for Northeast Monsoon Season (October. December), 2017

ECMWF • Below Normal Rainfall in southern and Eastern Myanmar • others normal

NOAA/CPC • Slightly above Normal Rainfall in the whole country

Normal Above Normal

Nov Jan Dec nmme • Above Normal Feb

Forecast for 2018 Northeast Monsoon Season (Oct, 2107 to Feb, 2018) forecast for NDJF, • Below Normal • Above Normal

NOAA/CPC q Lower Myanmar: Normal Temperature q Upper Myanmar : Above Normal Temperature

Normal • Normal Temperature in the whole Myanmr

Above Normal Above : Upper Myanmar Normal : Lowe Myanmar

Temperature forecast for 2017 NE Monsoon Season(Oct to Dec) Above : Upper Myanmar Normal : Lower Myanmar