Forecast and Targeting Techniques for Key Performance Indicators

Forecast and Targeting Techniques for Key Performance Indicators November 11, 2016

THE NEED TO FORECAST • It is an essential step in planning and organizational management. • Helps in developing process and systems. • Allows detailed feasibility analysis of expected outcomes. • Integrates Monitoring and Evaluation for continuous process. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 2

RELIABILITY OF A FORECAST • Must be scientific. • Based on empirical evidences. • Systematic, as a part of a research or benchmarking process. • Uses reliable source of data. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 3

APPLICATIONS DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 4

IMPLICATIONS • Sets standards for benchmarking and quotas. • Disaster prevention. • Resource management. • Estimates time frames and relevance of project/process. • Monitors progress and Evaluates performance. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 5

Key Performance Indicators • A quantifiable metric that reflects how well an organization is achieving its stated goals and objectives. • These are tools that may be used to define, measure, monitor and track its performance over time. • Play an integral part in decision making. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

Key Performance Indicators • Some of the KPIs set by the Dep. Ed are: – Enrollment – Net Enrollment Rate – Gross Enrollment Rate – Cohort Survival Rate – Promotion Rate – Repetition Rate DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

KPI FORECAST TOOL • Developed to provide a statistical analysis of the historical data, identifying its trend and relative changes to determine future values of the identified Key Performance Indicator set according to Dep. Ed standards. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 8

KPI FORECAST TOOL DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 9

FUNCTIONS OF THE FORECAST TOOL • The Forecast tool generates forecasted values for the next six years starting from the indicated base year. • It is designed to provide a scientific basis for the forecasted values using the Linear Method. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 10

USING THE FORECAST TOOL • The Forecast tool was designed to be user friendly, compact and compatible with most MS Excel versions. • Forecast values generated can easily be collated on a separate spreadsheet and be used for reporting purposes. Version 0. 25 is less than 1 mb. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 11

USING THE FORECAST TOOL 1. Select Region, KPI to Forecast and Base Year 2. Fill-in required input data 3. Analyze Forecast Results 4. Report and Forward Results DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 12

THE LINEAR METHOD • Also known as Linear Regression Forecast Method. • Assumes stationarity of data - no seasonality and is not cyclical. • Derived out of the slope and intercept formula. • Measures change of figures based on historical data. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 13

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FINAL THOUGHTS • So as not to make the tool complex by using Macros and other add-ins, the tool was developed using the available functions in Excel that are considered component equations of the regression analysis. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 15

FINAL THOUGHTS • This tool is still under development, and is planned to be a part of a broader system of benchmarking and database management. Further communication with regards to this tool’s development is expected. • Nevertheless, this tool is fully functional and can generate forecast values that will aid our respective institutions in planning, monitoring and evaluation. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION 16