Food Security to 2040 Whats coming down the

Food Security to 2040 What’s coming down the track? John Ingram Food Systems Programme Leader Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford

Food security…. . . exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (UN-FAO World Food Summit 1996, 2012) … is universally applicable … is more than food production … is underpinned by food systems

Food Systems include a set of ‘Activities’ …

… ‘Outcomes’ of which underpin food security “… exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. ” Food Security, i. e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety • Affordability • Allocation • Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange

Other ‘Outcomes’ of food system Activities contribute to crossing Planetary Boundaries

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Climate change N cycle P cycle Fresh water use Biodiversity loss Atmos. aerosols Chemical pollution Producing food Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food

Food System Activities and Planetary Boundaries Example contributions of FSAs to PBs Producing food Climate change GHGs, albedo Processing & Packaging food Distributing & Retailing food Consuming food Factory emissions Emissions from GHGs from transport and cooking cold chain NOx from transport N cycle Eutrophicn, GHGs Factory effluent P cycle P reserves Detergents Waste Fresh water use Irrigation Washing, Cleaning food heating, cooling Cooking, cleaning Biodiversity loss Deforestation, Paper/card soils, fishing Metal mining Invasive spp Consumer choices Atmos. aerosols Dust Shipping Smoke from cooking Chemical pollution Pesticides Transport emissions Cooking, cleaning Factory effluent Waste

How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security? Food Security, i. e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production FOOD ACCESS ?

How do changes in Climate and other Planetary Boundaries affect Food Security? Food Security, i. e. stability over time for: FOOD UTILISATION • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety FOOD ACCESS • Affordability • Allocation • Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange ?

Weather-induced price spikes affect affordability Poor people tend to spend relatively more of their income on food, therefore suffer more when food prices go up Cost of wheat is 5% of cost of loaf of bread in UK, but 90% cost of chapati in India

Extreme weather also impacts food storage …

… and food distribution …

… and food safety. • Mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage • Residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in managing increased pest pressure • Marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms • Pathogenic bacteria in foods during heat waves. Miraglia et al. , Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2009

Background Planetary Boundary concerns are clear But what’s coming down the track for food security?

Prevalence of undernourishment % of world population http: //faostat 3. fao. org

However, … ~ 1 billion people still hungry Developed ~ 15 m SSA ~ 225 m LAC ~ 40 m Asia & Pac ~ 525 m

~ 2 billion people suffer from Vit A, Fe, I, Zn and other micronutrient deficiencies: “Hidden Hunger” “Vitamin D deficiency: thought to affect at least half the UK’s white population, up to 90% of the multi-ethnic population and a quarter of children” (Dec, 2012)

And food systems are also ‘failing’ a further ~2. 5 billion of us! Global: 33% of all adults are overweight or obese. Australia: 60% of all adults are overweight or obese. England: 19% of Yr 6 children obese & 14% overweight. Shanghai: Over 200, 000 (14%) children are obese Ng, 2014; AINW, 2014; Public Health England, 2014; Xi et al, 2013

Different, overlapping forms of malnutrition: the ‘new normal’ “Nearly every country in the world experiences some form of malnutrition, and no country can take good nutrition for granted. ” International Food Policy Research Institute, 2014.

Food security…. . . exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs) currently ~ 1 billion currently ~ 2 billion currently ~ 3 billion currently >2. 5 billion

Goal: Sustainable Food and Nutrition Security Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs Excess cals (incl. some with insufficient nutrs) currently ~ 1 billion currently ~ 2 billion currently ~ 3 billion currently >2. 5 billion CONSUMERS Constraints on dietary choice and diversity affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations FOOD CHAIN ACTORS ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop PRODUCERS Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm Productivity Diversity & Quality Social, Political, Business, and Biophysical Environments Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs

World population, 1950 -2100, according to different projections and variants 2013: 7. 2 billion 2025: 8. 1 billion 2050: 9. 6 billion 2100: 10. 9 billion Nearly 1 billion more in next 12 years! World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision.

Looking ahead $6, 000 – $30, 000

Dietary energy supply increases as incomes rise …

… leading to increases in consumption. (kcal/person/day)

Looking ahead. . . “unless trends are curbed, half the global adult population will be overweight in 15 years time”

kcal/person/day consumption Calorie consumption 2040 The environmental consequences of meeting this demand with nottrends to scale) current food systems and (indicative; consumption are dire 2025 Impacts on non-communicable diseases (e. g. CVD, Type 2 Diabetes) will be massive Annual UK NHS spend on diabetes alone increases from £ 10 b to £ 17 b over the next 25 years 2015 2000 2250 Too much ---- Appropriate ---- -- Too little -- Too much - ----- Appropriate amount ----- -- Too little ------- Too much ------ Appropriate amount ---- Too little ------- Too much ------ --- Appropriate amount ----- Too little ----1 2 3 4 5 6 Billions of people 7 8 9 10

Environmental Change will clearly affect food security

But how will this interact with Socioeconomic Change?

Need to consider drivers and feedbacks for food system ‘sustainability’ anlayses Environmental feedbacks e. g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity Environmental DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp. , Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e. g. Volcanoes Solar cycles DRIVER Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Socioeconomic feedbacks e. g. nutrition, business, political stability Food Utilisation Food Access Food Security Food Availability

Sustainability Metrics for Food Systems Classic Concept Food System Concept Social Nutritional Environmental Economic Enterprise

Goal: Sustainable Food and 9080 Nutrition Security 70 Hypothesis: % weighting put on sustainability 60 metrics depends on ‘position’ in 50 Goal food system and world 40 view. Consumers 30 20 10 0 CONSUMERS Nutritional Environment Constraints on dietary choice and diversity Enterprise affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … 60 => Consumption by Sub-populations 50 40 FOOD CHAIN ACTORS Goal 30 ‘Post-farm gate’ Food System Activities 20 Value Chain processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … 10 => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop 0 Nutritional PRODUCERS Environment Enterprise 80 70 Local, Regional & Global Production Activities 60 farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity 50 and Price at farm 40 Goal 30 Producers 20 10 Productivity 0 Diversity & Quality Nutritional Environment Enterprise