Food Insecurity Hunger and Malnutrition Necessary Policy and

Food Insecurity, Hunger, and Malnutrition: Necessary Policy and Technology Changes Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Study week on “Transgenic Plants for Food Security in the Context of Development” The Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican City, May 15, 2009

Overview 1. Ending hunger as a global priority 2. The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens 3. The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets 4. Necessary policy and technology changes Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Consensus and call to action “The poor… should rise above poverty and wretchedness, and better their condition in life. ” (Encyclical, Pope Leo XIII 1891) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Approaches to overcome hunger 1. Development (economic, technological, institutional) 2. Charity (private, public) 3. Rights-based approach (human right to food, legal, advocacy) All three have an ethical base Synergies exist, e. g. : blocking 1 st undermines 3 rd, and cannot easily be compensated for by 2 nd. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Messages of this presentation 1. Technology innovations in food and agriculture are cutting across and are pervasive 2. Agr. tech. powers come through development as part of other innovations 3. If agr. tech innovations are blocked, development is blocked, poverty and hunger is perpetuated Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Overview 1. Ending hunger as a global priority 2. The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens 3. The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets 4. Necessary policy and technology changes Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Growth matters: hunger - income linkage Hunger and GDP/ capita in developing countries Source: von Braun, regressions based on data from World Bank (2005) and FAO (2005) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

1. 4 billion people remain poor in the developing world Poverty at $1/day, 2005 PPP East Asia and Pacific 1. 2 80 South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 60 0. 8 Billions % of population 1. 0 40 0. 4 East Asia and Pacific South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 20 0. 6 0. 2 0. 0 0 1981 1987 1993 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 1999 2005 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 Source: Chen and Ravallion 2008.

The ultra poor concentrated in SSA People living on $0. 50 -$0. 75 a day: $0. 75 -$1 a day: 323 million 485 million Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 People living on <$0. 50 a day: 162 million Source: Ahmed et al. 2007.

Rising number of hungry people in the developing world (in million) >1 bil. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 WFS target Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.

Progress in “hunger” reduction, Global Hunger Index 2008 vs. 1990 lack of calories, child under-nutrition, child death Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Source: . IFPRI 2008.

Who is affected by hunger? Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force, 2005.

…and average farm sizes are getting smaller Hectares Average farm sizes in selected countries India Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 China Ethiopia Tanzania Sources: Fan and Chan-Kang 2003, FAO Agricultural World Census and Indiastat.

Agricultural productivity growth in developing countries: too low! Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992 -2003 % East Asia 2. 7 South Asia 1. 0 East Africa 0. 4 West Africa 1. 6 Southern Africa 1. 3 Latin America 2. 7 North Africa & West Asia 1. 4 All regions 2. 1 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Small farms can be very productive Source: von Braun et al. 2008.

Are we living in unusual times? 1872 -2008 prices and population Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Sources: J. von Braun, based on data from NBER Macrohistory database, BLS CPI database, Godo 2001, OECD 2005, and FAO 2008; Population data from U. S. Census Bureau Int’l database and UN 1999.

World Population: Population 2050 - from 6. 7 to 9 Billion - The good news: probably not more than 9 Billion Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Source: Worldmapper 2009.

The development and demographic challenges to “feed the world” 1. overcome current hunger among 2 Billion 2. + 2 – 3 Billion population; 3. + increased demand (income growth from demographic dividend and development) ------------= doubling food (by 2050) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Land / Water Constraints • There is at most 12% more arable land available that isn’t presently forested or subject to erosion or desertification (R. Thompson, 2009) • The area of land in farm production could be doubled, but only by massive destruction of forests and loss of biodiversity and carbon sequestration capacity, and • at high marginal costs of investment. ---------------= a (relative) constraint Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Current Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity Source: Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Agriculture and climate change: part of the problem and the solution • Agriculture is part of the problem: Agriculture: 13. 5 % of the CO 2 equivalents (Transport: 13. 1%), and forestry 19% • Agriculture is part of the solution: Biomass; CO 2 sequestration; soil management Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Climate change will affect agriculture • Threat 1: Changes to production with - higher and more variable temperatures - changed precipitation patterns - more extreme events (droughts, floods), etc. • Threat 2: climate change policies - for agriculture and poor farming communities if agriculture is not or not well included in Copenhagen etc. Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Overview 1. Ending hunger as a global priority 2. The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens 3. The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets 4. Necessary policy and technology changes Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Response 1: markets - price spike, 2007 -08 Export bans; biofuels, not sharing in times of need Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.

Response 2: suffering among the poor Purchasing power: 50 -70% of income spent on food and wages do not adjust accordingly Assets and human capital: distressed sale of productive assets, withdrawal of girls from school, etc. + Level of diet (low) and nutritional deficiencies (high) Nutrition is undermined Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Source: Joachim von Braun 2008.

Response 3: Food riots 800 700 500 25 20 15 400 10 300 200 # of riots US$/ton 600 Maize Wheat Rice Riots (right) 5 100 0 Ju l-0 Au 7 g. Se 07 p 0 O 7 ct N 07 ov D 07 ec -0 Ja 7 n 0 Fe 8 b. M 08 ar -0 Ap 8 r. M 08 ay -0 Ju 8 n 0 Ju 8 l-0 Au 8 g. Se 08 p 0 O 8 ct -0 8 0 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Source: J. von Braun based on news reports. Prices are data from FAO

Financial crisis and depression • Less capital for agriculture now • Higher debt burden for farmers who invested in agriculture expansion • Reduced employment and wages of unskilled workers • Reduced remittances Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Response 4: Pledges to address the food crisis (2008/9) Donor organization/country Pledge (bil. $) World Bank 2 EU (EC & national) 5 + USA 6 Increase in public budgets on agric. and social protection bil. $US % change China 23 +27% India 6 +24% Plus 2009 stimulus packages: China: 109 bil. US$ for agriculture India: also increased ++ Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Source: IFPRI, compiled from news sources and government budgets.

Response 5: Looking for Land Source: IFPRI media and reporting analyses Note: Thicker lines reflect investments >100, 000 ha; Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 for some thinner lines, data on investment size is not available.

Overview 1. Ending hunger as a global priority 2. The food and nutrition crisis expands and deepens 3. The responses to the crisis by people, policy, and markets 4. Necessary policy and technology changes Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Strategic agenda 1. Promote pro-poor agriculture growth with technology and institutional innovations 2. Facilitate open trade and reduce market volatility 3. Expand social protection and child nutrition action Action needed for all 3 Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Synergy between technology and institutional arrangements Challenges Hunger and diet deficits Population growth Agric productivity Role of technology ++ * + +++ Role of institutions ++ + * ++ Volatility of prices + +++ Recession impact + ++ Climate change and water +++ * * = Strong role of bio-technology Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 +++

What to do about volatility? 1. Keep trade open at times of global and regional food shortage is a must 2. Regulation of food commodity markets? (as part of financial markets) 3. Establish grain reserves policy at global level (emergency reserve, shared physical reserves, and a virtual reserve > a new institution at global level needed) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Use bio-technology to address hunger and food insecurity 1. Farmers (higher productivity, small farmers can be major beneficiaries) 2. Consumers (improved health outcomes, reduction in food and health expenditure) 3. International trade (reduction in global food prices and volatility) 4. Insurance against food security risks (must have technology in stock) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

If no investment in Biotech, what are the other options? Alternative 1: Use more environmental capital Alternative 2: Invest more in safety nets and direct action But, these alternatives are not feasible/sustainable Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Need a functional bio-safety system - evidence based (neither light, nor for blockade) Regulatory decision points Contained Use Experiments Confined Field Trials Deliberate Release Post Release Time Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Central for long-term agric. growth: Double public agric. R&D to impact poverty R&D allocation (mil. 2005 $) in # of + Agr. output poor (mil. ) growth (% pts. ) 2008 -2020 2008* 2013 SSA 608 2, 913 -143. 8 2. 8 S Asia 908 3, 111 -124. 6 2. 4 -282. 1 1. 1 Devel. ing World 4, 975 9, 951 CGIAR investment to rise from US$0. 5 to US$1. 0 billion as part of this expansion And biotech as part of the public science policy strategy Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009 Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.

Agriculture must be on the climate change agenda, but how? 1. Investment: agriculture-related investments, as part of a Global Climate Change Fund for technology to adapt 2. Incentives: C&T and carbon market may conflict with food security; phase in incentives first to reduce emissions, support technol. change 3. Information: Establish comprehensive information and monitoring services of land use and soils for verification base Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

Different innovation needs and (risk) preferences of poor and rich: reconcile ! 1. Must not compartmentalize innovation (“we do not need it”! “we” / “they”? ) as this stops innovation in it’s tracks. 2. Survival and basic needs are absolute (must not weight against relative preferences) 3. Solutions to overcome conflict must be found in the interest of the poor: - access to technology (implicit in right to food) - actively develop pro-poor technology - access to the product benefits (not to prevent the poorest “their” markets; facilitate market segmentation if necessary) Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009

www. ifpri. org Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, May 2009