Food and Biofuel Jan Kees Vis Unilever What
Food and Biofuel Jan Kees Vis Unilever
What is sustainable? If we can continue doing it indefinitely, i. e. Sustainable activities contribute to ] Financial capital ] Social capital ] Human capital ] Natural capital
Planet Earth Natural Resource Consumption 1 4, 500, 000, 000 3, 000, 000 2, 000, 000 1, 000, 000 530, 000 480, 000 310, 000 200, 000 32, 000 10, 000 500 2 Planet earth Proto-bacteria Photosynthesis Eukaryotic cells Algae Fish Plants Early mammals Homo Sapiens Cave paintings Agriculture Industrialisation 3 Time 00: 00 05: 30 08: 00 14: 00 19: 00 21: 10 21: 30 22: 22 23: 59: 58 23: 59: 40 23: 59: 80 23: 59: 99 4
Agriculture’s Current Global Footprint 33% of earth’s surface in crops or grazing— 55% of habitable area
Ecosystems • Change in ecosystems can stretch over billions of years • There is no way of knowing what might be in store • Current system supports homo sapiens • Mankind has a marked influence on ecosystem services (MEA) • Sustainability is an anthropogenic concept
Simple System Dynamics Nature is insensitive Nature is tolerant Nature is benevolent Nature is vulnerable
Disturbing the equilibrium Ag system Edible oils market: 2. 5 m barrels/day Ag system Energy market: 85. 5 m barrels/day
Oil Palm and Forest Cover in Borneo
Biofuels & Renewables from Agriculture Biodiesel ] Palm oil ] Canola/Rape Cellulosic Ethanol ] Crop residue (rice, wheat, corn, sorghum) ] Perennial grasses ] Soy ] Jatropha ] Pongamia ] Castor oil ] Sunflower ] Safflower ] Sugarcane ] Temperate tree plantations ] Tropical tree plantations Bioethanol ] Sugarcane ] Sugar beet ] Corn ] Wheat ] Grapes #2 Heating/Furnace Oil ] Palm oil Renewable Energy ] Crop residue ] Temperate tree plantations ] Tropical tree plantations
Change vs disruption • Ecosystems change all the time • Natural change happens at geological time scales • Ecosystems can flip from one dynamic equilibrium to another, but • These transitions cannot be managed and must therefore be avoided
Reduce dependence on fossil fuel • Energy conservation • Low energy technologies • (Capture carbon dioxide emissions) • Alternative fuels R waste to energy R biomass to energy K direct conversion (power stations) K biomass to liquid • biofuels (bioethanol, biodiesel)
IF biofuels is a good idea…. • Then agriculture will have to produce food, feed, fiber and fuel • For a population that will grow to 10 billion • Land will be the limiting factor, • Together with water
. . then these are the challenges • Make optimum use of land in cultivation (no extensive agriculture) • Organise access for farmers to best available technology • Prioritise through policy instruments relative importance of food, feed, fiber, fuel • “If burning food is a bad idea, then burning food with subsidy is criminal” • “Consumption vs combustion”
Biofuels are not necessarily sustainable • Farm inputs account for a lot of fossil fuel • Net energy balance needs to be calculated • Net carbon balance needs to be calculated ] ] Carbon to air Carbon to soil • Soil health is crucial to productive capacity • Replacement effects on other markets
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