FOCRAII 2017 BCC prediction of EastAsian key circulation

FOCRAII 2017 BCC prediction of East-Asian key circulation patterns in 2017 summer Fang Zhou Laboratory for Climate Studies Beijing Climate Center 2017/04/25

contents Ø 1、Introduction Ø 2、Prediction of East-Asian key circulation patterns Ø 2. 1、Prediction of WPSH Ø 2. 2、Prediction of SAH Ø 2. 3、Prediction of EASM Ø 2. 4、Prediction of PSAC Ø 3、 Conclusion

contents Ø 1、Introduction

1 Introduction Ø China is located in the East Asian monsoon region, climate disasters caused by circulation anomalies in East Asia have a significant impact on China, especially in the eastern region. Therefore, the prediction of East-Asian key circulation patterns is of great significance for disaster prevention； Ø Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), South Asia High (SAH), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and Philippine Sea anomalous Anti Cyclone (PSAC) are key patterns of East-Asian circulation system, the intensity and position changes have an important influence on climate change； Ø The latest climate models have been put into operation and provide monthly forecast data in real time. We can use climate models to predict the key circulation patterns in East Asia.

contents Ø 2、Prediction of East-Asian key circulation patterns Ø 2. 1、Prediction of WPSH Ø 2. 2、Prediction of SAH Ø 2. 3、Prediction of EASM Ø 2. 4、Prediction of PSAC

2 Prediction of East-Asian key circulation patterns Prediction BCC_CSM 1. 1(m) 2017 April 201704 -201804 2017 JJA CFSv 2 2017 April 201704 -201801 2017 JJA ECMWF 2017 April 201704 -201710 2017 JJA Models Initial Month WPSH Liu Yunyun (2012) Intensity, Area, and Ridge Point Zhang Q and YF Qian (2000) Center Intensity, and Longitude Forecast Month SAH Indices Definitions EASM Zhang QY (2003) U 850 PSAC B Wang (2000) SLP http: //cmdp. ncc-cma. net/station/extension. php Prediction

Prediction of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) Intensity, Area, and Ridge Point indices

Prediction of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) Intensity, Area, and Ridge Point indices

Prediction of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) Intensity, Area, and Ridge Point indices

Prediction of South Asia High (SAH) Center Intensity, and Longitude indices

Prediction of South Asia High (SAH) Center Intensity, and Longitude indices

Prediction of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) indices

Prediction of Philippine Sea anomalous Anti Cyclone (PSAC) indices

contents Ø 3、 Conclusion

3 Conclusion Ø Based on the latest model predictions of BCC_CSM 1. 1(M), CFSv 2 and ECMWF, the results show that the intensity and area of WPSH in 2017 summer will be slightly stronger and larger than normal, the ridge point tends to be westward. Ø The intensity of SAH will be stronger than normal and the center location tends to be eastward. Ø Such a circulation configuration advantages to a strong EASM, which can be clearly seen by the model prediction of EASM index. Ø Model prediction also shows that the PSA may be weak in 2017 summer.

3 Conclusion Since Zhang-EASM index has a high correlation with precipitation, we here regress the index onto the precipitation and temperature over East Asia. We may infer that in 2017 summer, it will be less precipitation in most parts of China, and the temperature will be higher in the north and lower in the south, but there's not enough evidence in my current work.