Florida Department of TRANSPORTATION SR 417 Extension SketchLevel

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Florida Department of TRANSPORTATION SR 417 Extension Sketch-Level Traffic & Revenue Evaluation August 26,

Florida Department of TRANSPORTATION SR 417 Extension Sketch-Level Traffic & Revenue Evaluation August 26, 2015 1

Sketch-Level T&R Evaluation • Update to 2003 Study • Higher-Level, Conceptual Effort Using Existing

Sketch-Level T&R Evaluation • Update to 2003 Study • Higher-Level, Conceptual Effort Using Existing Data and Inputs • Evaluate Key Inputs – What Has Changed Over Past 12 Years? – Impact on Traffic? – Impact on Revenue? • Identify New Alternatives for Consideration • Update Project Costs • Reassess Revenue/Cost Differential Florida Department of Transportation 2

Project Overview • Extension of SR 417 in Seminole County to I-95 in Southeast

Project Overview • Extension of SR 417 in Seminole County to I-95 in Southeast Volusia County • New, Four-Lane, Limited-Access Toll Facility • Approximately 30 Miles Long • Alternative for Trips from Volusia to Orlando • Includes New St. Johns River Crossing Florida Department of Transportation 3

Study Area Florida Department of Transportation 4

Study Area Florida Department of Transportation 4

Corridor Alternative 1 Florida Department of Transportation 5

Corridor Alternative 1 Florida Department of Transportation 5

Corridor Alternative 2 Florida Department of Transportation 6

Corridor Alternative 2 Florida Department of Transportation 6

Corridor Alternative 3 Florida Department of Transportation 7

Corridor Alternative 3 Florida Department of Transportation 7

2003 T&R Study Results Florida Department of Transportation 8

2003 T&R Study Results Florida Department of Transportation 8

2003 T&R Study Results 2003 T&R Study Conclusion: Project shortfall of $620 to $780

2003 T&R Study Results 2003 T&R Study Conclusion: Project shortfall of $620 to $780 million Florida Department of Transportation 9

Sketch-Level T&R Update • • • Population Data Network Access Locations Developments within Study

Sketch-Level T&R Update • • • Population Data Network Access Locations Developments within Study Area New Opening Year (2025) Updated Project Costs Florida Department of Transportation 10

Population Data - Comparison County 2003 BEBR Medium Population Estimate 2015 BEBR (PS 171)

Population Data - Comparison County 2003 BEBR Medium Population Estimate 2015 BEBR (PS 171) Medium Population Estimate % Change in Population Estimate 2010 2030 2010* 2030 2010 2030 Volusia 515, 100 645, 200 494, 593 563, 900 -4. 0% -12. 6% Brevard 551, 300 685, 800 543, 376 631, 100 -1. 4% -8. 0% Seminole 450, 300 598, 700 422, 718 522, 300 -6. 1% -12. 8% Total 1, 518, 710 1, 931, 730 1, 462, 697 1, 719, 330 -3. 7% -11. 0% *2010 Census Population Florida Department of Transportation 11

Network • • • SR 415 SR 44 I-4 I – 95 Lake Mary

Network • • • SR 415 SR 44 I-4 I – 95 Lake Mary Blvd 2 -Lanes 4 -Lanes Florida Department of Transportation 12

Network - SR 415 Historical Traffic. SR 415 Historical Average Corridor Traffic Between SR

Network - SR 415 Historical Traffic. SR 415 Historical Average Corridor Traffic Between SR 46 and SR 44 20, 000 18, 000 16, 000 14, 000 10, 000 8, 000 6, 000 4, 000 2, 000 Florida Department of Transportation 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Year 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 1999 AADT 12, 000 13

Access Locations 2003 Study Access I-95 Maytown Rd Additional Access I-95 Maytown Rd SR

Access Locations 2003 Study Access I-95 Maytown Rd Additional Access I-95 Maytown Rd SR 46 Lake Mary Blvd / International Airport SR 417 New Access Florida Department of Transportation 14

Developments within the Study Area Restoration DRI • • RESTORATION FARMTON • Farmton MDRI

Developments within the Study Area Restoration DRI • • RESTORATION FARMTON • Farmton MDRI • • Access Locations Florida Department of Transportation 8, 500 Residential Units – 3, 825 SF Units – 4, 675 MF Units 3, 300, 000 Non-Residential Square footage – 1, 904, 442 sq ft. Office – 1, 395, 557 sq ft. Retail 74% of total land area (3, 872 ac. ) planned for conservation 23, 100 Residential Units – 2017 -2025: 4, 692 Units – 2026 -2060: 18, 408 Units 4, 700, 000 Non-Residential Square footage – 2017 -2025: 820, 217 sq. ft. – 2026 -2060: 4, 700, 000 sq. ft. 15

Base Case • Same Toll Rate • Same Access Points • Updated Land Use

Base Case • Same Toll Rate • Same Access Points • Updated Land Use and Model Network Alternatives • 2025 Opening vs. 2010 Opening Year • Indexed Toll Rates vs. Toll Increases Every 10 Years Net Present Value (NPV) in $Millions 2003 T&R Study $196 M 2015 Sketch-Level T&R Evaluation $260 M Change From 2003 Study +$64 M (+32%) Florida Department of Transportation 16

2015 Study Build Alternatives (Higher Toll Rate) Net Present Value (NPV) in $Millions Change

2015 Study Build Alternatives (Higher Toll Rate) Net Present Value (NPV) in $Millions Change from 2003 NPV $196 M Same Access Locations as 2003 Study $364 M + 85% $402 M + 105 % $497 M + 153 % Additional Access Locations At SR 46 and Lake Mary Blvd Higher Land Use Related to Restoration and Farmton Florida Department of Transportation 17

Updated Project Costs 2003 Project Cost 2015 Project Cost* Change in Cost Corridor 1

Updated Project Costs 2003 Project Cost 2015 Project Cost* Change in Cost Corridor 1 $887 M $1. 5 B + 69% Corridor 2 $851 M $1. 4 B + 65% Corridor 3 $824 M $1. 3 B + 58% Corridor *Project unit costs were updated, however, ROW and mitigation costs were not updated in this effort. Additional costs related with the addition of new access points was not included in the cos estimates. Florida Department of Transportation 18

Revenue/Cost Differential Alternatives NPV Cost* in Millions Difference Base Case $260 $1, 300 -$1,

Revenue/Cost Differential Alternatives NPV Cost* in Millions Difference Base Case $260 $1, 300 -$1, 040 Higher Toll Rate - 2003 Access $364 $1, 300 -$936 Higher Toll Rate - Additional Access $402 $1, 300 -$898 Higher Toll Rate - Higher Land Use $497 $1, 300 -$803 *Costs shown for Corridor #3 and do not include updates to ROW and Mitigation, or the cost for the additional access points. Florida Department of Transportation 19

Conclusion • Project Assumptions Evaluated and Updated • Additional Alternatives with a Higher Toll

Conclusion • Project Assumptions Evaluated and Updated • Additional Alternatives with a Higher Toll Rate v Additional Access v Higher Land Use from Developments • Updated Project Costs v R/W and Mitigation Costs Still Need to be Updated • Project Stillof Transportation Has Significant Shortfall Florida Department 20

Conclusion QUESTIONS? Florida Department of Transportation 21

Conclusion QUESTIONS? Florida Department of Transportation 21