Flash estimates of GDP Roberto Barcellan European Commission
Flash estimates of GDP Roberto Barcellan European Commission - Eurostat
Introduction n GDP is the “indicator” able to resume the economic performance of a country n GDP is the ultimate product of the statistical chain n Crisis: need for early estimates of GDP n Methodological and technical debates n A standalone rapid estimate of GDP is not sufficient for policy makers n Sequence of statistical products n Set of indicators
GDP: a sequence of statistical products
Who does what? Planning Bureaus / Research institutes / Statistical authorities Statistical Authorities
The dashboard approach n Set of coherent macroeconomic key indicators n Flexible to adapt to evolving needs n information on – – – Prices national accounts labour market statistics short-term statistics external trade n Dynamic evolution
Framework: the pyramid of statistical information Specific purpose Composite indicators Indicator (sets) Multipurpose Accounting systems Primary and secondary data
Information and rapid estimates nowcasts Increase availability of basic information Flash estimates Regular estimates Decreasing use of econometric / statistical techniques
How to move towards rapid estimates of a set of indicators? n Define the dashboard n Define the typology of statistical product – glossary n International cooperation for guidelines and strategic short, medium and long term objectives – handbooks n Methodological background – Seminars and sharing best practices
Creating a “culture” of rapid estimates n Adequate communication n Transparency n Pre-defined release windows n What does estimate what? n Promoting the dashboard
Summary ideas n Importance of rapid estimates n Sequence of statistical products fit for purpose n For each product: basic information and methodology n Dashboard n Outcome of a coordinated statistical production process n Communication
Thank you for your attention!
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