First Applications of GLM Data for National Climate

First Applications of GLM Data for National Climate Assessment (NCA) Studies William Koshak 1, Kenneth Cummins 2, Brian Vant-Hull 3, Themis Chronis 4 1 NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Huntsville, AL 2 University of Arizona (UA), Tucson, AZ 3 City College of New York (CCNY), New York, NY 4 University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), Huntsville, AL American Geophysical Union (AGU) Meeting, 10 December 2018

National Climate Assessment (NCA) Program ü Congressionally Mandated: Global Change Research Act (1990) ü Vision: To advance an inclusive, broad based, and sustained process for assessing and communicating scientific knowledge of the impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities associated with a changing global climate in support of decision-making across the US. ü USGCRP Oversees the NCA Process o 13 Federal Depts/Agencies Involved ü Culminates in regular NCA Assessment Reports o o NCA 1 completed in 2000 NCA 2 completed in 2009 NCA 3 completed in 2014 NCA 4 completed in 2018 WMO recently added lightning to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) list of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) Koshak, NASA/MSFC

Lightning/Climate Interaction higher albedo (cooling) Increased Convection Multiple Effects Warming Climate Impacts: Lightning Increase Over Land 17%/ o. C (dry bulb) 40%/ o. C (wet bulb) 56% /o. C (wet, N. Hem) Increased Lightning death/injury wildfires power outages crop damage property damage delays (airport, launch). . . Other Drivers Increased O 3 and other GG Increased LNOx Koshak, NASA/MSFC

10 mo Trend (Jan-Oct, 2018) CONUS Flash Density GLM-16 NLDN NW Not Corrected Koshak, NASA/MSFC

NLDN 10 months (Jan-Oct, 2018) GLM-16 NW Not Corrected Koshak, NASA/MSFC

Two Optical Energy Metrics Sensor-Intercepted Energy Total Upward Energy (from cloud-top surface) sum upward flux from each event isotropy assumed Koshak, NASA/MSFC

Flash Optical Energy Q (Broad View): 9. 5 mo (2018: Jan 1 – Oct 15); ~ 300 M flashes Size = 298, 386, 767 Mean = 254. 3 f. J Std. Dev. = 557. 7 f. J Max = 100, 004. 4 f. J Median = 87. 0 f. J Min = 1. 5 f. J Flash Energy Freq. Dist. 400 300 200 Mean Daily Flash Energy TREND (f. J) 100 0 0 200 100 Time (days since start) 300 Koshak, NASA/MSFC

Long-Term Trend of TRMM/LIS Mean CONUS Upward Flash Optical Energy ℇ Trends down to 2011, then trends up. Oscillates!. . . with peak in Winter. Koshak, W. J, Lightning NOx estimates from space-based lightning imagers, 16 th Annual CMAS Conference, Chapel Hill, NC, October 23 -25, 2017 Koshak, NASA/MSFC

10 mo Trend (Jan-Oct, 2018) of GLM-16 CONUS Incident Flash Optical Energy Q Monthly Variation NW Not Corrected Mean Q per flash in grid cell Total Q from all flashes in grid cell Koshak, NASA/MSFC

Koshak, NASA/MSFC

10 mo Trend (Jan-Oct, 2018) of GLM-16 CONUS LNOx Production P Estimate Monthly Variation NW Not Corrected Mean P per flash in grid cell Total P from all flashes in grid cell Koshak, NASA/MSFC

Summary • GLM is a new effective tool for probing lightning/climate relations for NCA program, and for improving air quality modeling. • Major benefits: 24/7 continuous monitoring, & total lightning detection. • Allows for continuous monitoring of Z ratio when GLM combined with NLDN data. • GLM trending of flash optical energy, Q, has begun which is a proxy to flash LNOx production (and which directly affects greenhouse gas concentrations, such as ozone). Koshak, NASA/MSFC