Fire Weather Fire Climate and the Storrie Fire

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Fire Weather, Fire Climate, and the Storrie Fire

Fire Weather, Fire Climate, and the Storrie Fire

Part 1. Data from the Daily Situation Reports for the Storrie Fire Acres burned

Part 1. Data from the Daily Situation Reports for the Storrie Fire Acres burned How big was the fire? 17 -A u 19 g-00 -A u 21 g-00 -A u 23 g-00 -A u 25 g-00 -A u 27 g-00 -A u 29 g-00 -A u 31 g-00 -A ug 02 -00 -S ep 04 -00 -S ep 06 -00 -S ep 08 -00 -S ep 10 -00 -S ep -0 0 This kind of information is posted every day, for every current fire in the United States, on “Inciweb” (https: //inciweb. nwcg. gov/ ). After each fire is out, the information is archived so you can find it years later. 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Date 0 -0 0 ep -0 -S 10 -0 -S 08 ep -S 06 ep 0 0 -0 0 ep -0 -S 04 Date 02 -0 -A 31 ug ug 0 0 -0 29 -A ug -A 27 25 -A ug -0 0 0 -0 ug 23 -A 0 ug -0 -A 21 ug 0 -A -A u 19 g-00 -A u 21 g-00 -A u 23 g-00 -A u 25 g-00 -A u 27 g-00 -A u 29 g-00 -A u 31 g-00 -A ug 02 -00 -S ep 04 -00 -S ep 06 -00 -S ep 08 -00 -S ep 10 -00 -S ep -0 0 0 -0 500 ug 1000 19 1500 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 -A 2000 How much did the fire spread each day? 17 2500 How many new acres burned? 3000 17 Number of people working on fire How many people were working on the fire each day?

Part 2. The Carpenter Ridge Remote Access Weather Station Where is it? Weather Station

Part 2. The Carpenter Ridge Remote Access Weather Station Where is it? Weather Station Final perimeter of the Storrie Fire

The Carpenter Ridge Remote Access Weather Station What does it look like? See more

The Carpenter Ridge Remote Access Weather Station What does it look like? See more photos and a video panorama at http: //raws. dri. edu/cgibin/wea_info. pl? ca. CCRR.

The Carpenter Ridge Remote Access Weather Station Minimum Relative Humidity (%) These lines mark

The Carpenter Ridge Remote Access Weather Station Minimum Relative Humidity (%) These lines mark “percentiles. ” The 90% line means that, on 90 days out of 100, the temperature does not go over about 84 o F. Rainfall (inches) Average wind Speed (mph) 20 ft above ground Maximum Temperature (o. F) Weather data for Aug. 17 – Sept. 11, 2000

The Carpenter Ridge Remote Access Weather Station Fuel Moisture data for Aug. 17 –

The Carpenter Ridge Remote Access Weather Station Fuel Moisture data for Aug. 17 – Sept. 11, 2000 Percent moisture in “ 1 -hour” fuels. These are fine fuels like grass and leaves. They respond very quickly to weather changes – within 1 hour. The horizontal lines across the graphs show “percentiles. ” In this graph, they show that only 10% of days on record had a 1 -hour fuel moisture less than about 2. 5%, and only 3% of days had a 1 -hour fuel moisture less than about 2%. Percent moisture in “ 1000 -hour fuels”. These are more than 3 inches in diameter. They include fallen logs and big tree branches. They take days, weeks, or even months to respond very much to weather changes. In this graph, the lines showing 10 th percentile and 3 rd percentile are stuck together. There may be no days on record when the 1000 -hour fuel moisture dipped below this level, about 5. 5%.

Part 3. Fire Spread Predictions from BEHAVE The BEHAVE PLUS fire spread model (https:

Part 3. Fire Spread Predictions from BEHAVE The BEHAVE PLUS fire spread model (https: //www. frames. gov/partnersites/behaveplus/home/) currently forms the basis for all fire spread predictions in the United States. To get useful predictions from the model, one needs to provide good input data and meet many assumptions. These are the main assumptions used here: • Fuel Model 1 (short grass) represent grassy openings and clearcuts. We assumed a 20% slope for these sites. • Fuel Model 10 (mature/overmature timber and understory) represents the dense forest that covered most of the unlogged Storrie Fire area before the fire. Here are maps of the actual fuel models and degrees of slope for the Storrie Fire area. “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful 1. ” _________________ 1 Box, G. E. P. ; Draper, N. R. 1987. Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces. New York: John Wiley & Sons: 424.

Fire Spread Predictions from BEHAVE: How do dead fuel moisture and wind affect grassy

Fire Spread Predictions from BEHAVE: How do dead fuel moisture and wind affect grassy fuels (Fuel Model 1)? 5 -9 10 -14 15 -19 20 -24 25 -29 30 -34 35 -39 40 -44 45 -49 50 -54 55 -59 60 -64 65 -69 70 -74 75 -79 80 -84 85 -89 90 -94 95 -99 100 Relative humidity (%) 0 -4 Temp. (°F) 10 -29 30 -49 50 -69 70 -89 90 -109 >109 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 11 11 10 10 12 11 11 11 13 12 12 11 11 11 13 13 13 12 12 12 14 14 13 13 15 14 14 13

Fire Spread Predictions from BEHAVE: How do dead fuel moisture and wind affect heavy

Fire Spread Predictions from BEHAVE: How do dead fuel moisture and wind affect heavy timber fuels (Fuel Model 10)? 10 10 10 9 9 9 11 11 10 10 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 14 14 13 13 15 14 14 14 16 15 15 14 14 14 16 16 16 15 15 15 17 17 16 16 100 95 -99 90 -94 85 -89 80 -84 75 -79 70 -74 9 9 8 8 65 -69 9 8 8 8 60 -64 30 -34 8 8 8 7 7 7 55 -59 25 -29 7 7 7 6 6 6 50 -54 20 -24 6 6 6 45 -49 15 -19 6 6 6 5 5 5 40 -44 10 -14 5 5 5 35 -39 5 -9 Relative humidity (%) 0 -4 Temp. (°F) 10 -29 30 -49 50 -69 70 -89 90 -109 >109 18 17 17 16

Part 4. Speaking of fire + weather… What about fire + climate? Adapted from

Part 4. Speaking of fire + weather… What about fire + climate? Adapted from 2009 presentation by Rachel Loehman, Research Scientist, U. S. Geological Survey, Anchorage, Alaska

“Temperature Anomaly” means how far the average temperature from 1999 -2008 differs from the

“Temperature Anomaly” means how far the average temperature from 1999 -2008 differs from the average temperature from 19401980.

How much did global mean temperature differ from the mean for 1961 -1990? Source:

How much did global mean temperature differ from the mean for 1961 -1990? Source: International Source: Panel on. International Climate Panel on Climate Change (2007) 1855 -2005 1980 -2005

Global PDSI 1 (Palmer Drought Severity Index) Positive numbers mean drier than average conditions).

Global PDSI 1 (Palmer Drought Severity Index) Positive numbers mean drier than average conditions). Source: International Panel on Climate Change (2007)

Since 1986: • Western fire season 78 days longer • 4 -fold increase in

Since 1986: • Western fire season 78 days longer • 4 -fold increase in fires > 1000 acres • 6 -fold increase in acres burned 7 Wildland Fire Acres Burned in the 11 Western States* Million acres 6 5 4 3 2 1 2007 90 80 2000 Year 70 60 50 40 30 1916 20 0 *Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming Data from the National Ineragency Fire Center; Created by Helen Smith, Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory