FIRE WEATHER 2017 NWS LOS ANGELESOXNARD DAVID GOMBERG

FIRE WEATHER 2017 NWS LOS ANGELES/OXNARD DAVID GOMBERG Fire Weather Program Manager ERIC BOLDT Warning Coordination Meteorologist Jesusita Fire – May 2009 (Photo by Eric Boldt, NWS)

NWS Contact Info n David Gomberg – Fire Weather Program Manager Ø (805) 988 -6626 n Mark Jackson – Meteorologist in Charge Ø (805)988 -6617 n Eric Boldt – Warning Coordination Meteorologist Ø (805) 988 -6623 n Rich Thompson – IMET Ø (805) 988 -6626 n Website

Topics Today Rainfall Summaries n Drought and Fuels n Seasonal Outlook n Products/Services n Spot Forecast Update n Red Flag Warnings n Sundowner Winds n Technology/ Decision Support n Rey Fire Photo by NWS

Oct 2016 -May 2017 Precipitation Percent of Normal

Water Year 2016 -2017 Precipitation 80 -160 % of Normal LA County October 2016 - April 2017

Drought and Fuels

Drought Monitor http: //droughtmonitor. unl. edu/ May 3 2017 March 29 May 23 2016 2017 May 24 2016

2017 Live Fuel Moisture Los Angeles County (May 2017) Average 1981 -2017 Critical

Weather Outlook

Precipitation Outlook June-July-August

Temperature Outlook June-July-August

GACC SEASONAL OUTLOOK July 2017 Summary: • Near Normal Large Fire Potential • High grass fire activity into June - High concentration of dead vegetation • Above Normal Temperatures

NWS Products and Services Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) n Spot Forecasts n NFDRS Trend Forecast n Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches n IMET Program n

www. wrh. noaa. gov/firewx/? wfo=lox Spot Forecasts FWF/RFW Fire Wx Snooper Red Flag Monitor

Beta Fire Weather Snooper Link weather. gov/lox/fire_weather/fm_new. php

Spot Forecasts (weather. gov/spot/monitor) n Spot forecasts available – Wildfire – Prescribed burns – Hazmat/Search and Rescue – Event Planning Include working contact number and agency n Include observations and time you need spot n

Watches and Warnings n Watches and Warnings issued for critical fire weather patterns conducive to extreme fire danger and/or fire behavior – Must have sufficiently dry fuels Fire Weather Watch ü Alerts agencies of potential red flag conditions ü Confidence is high but not certain 24 – 96 hours prior to expected event Red Flag Warning üRed flag conditions either imminent or 0 are – 48 occurring hours prior to event Jonathan Alcorn

Red Flag Criteria NWS Oxnard Red Flag Warning Criteria (with critical fuels) The less than 10% RH requires a minimum wind speed of 15 mph Criteria 1: RH≤ 10% with sustained wind ≥ 15 mph or and/or frequent gusts ≥ 25 mph Duration of 6 hours or greater Criteria 2: RH≤ 15% with sustained wind ≥ 25 mph and/or frequent gusts ≥ 35 mph Duration of 6 hours or greater Criteria 3: Widespread and/or significant dry lightning Criteria 4: Other (Forecaster Discretion)

Coordination Calls n n All Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches coordinated with GACC and local fire agencies Importance of 830 am GACC Conference Call Ø Event driven during critical fire weather patterns Ø Multi-agency participation • Riverside GACC leads call • NWS offices (including IMETS during ongoing fires) • Fire Agencies Ø Overview of weather, fuels, and potential fire behavior Ø Decision making NOAA

NWS Oxnard Local Conference Calls n In addition to 830 am GACC Call, local conference calls initiated by NWS Oxnard – Typically 1 PM – Additional details/decision making can be discussed n Representation – County and City Fire Agencies – National Forests

Thank you! Questions? David Gomberg, NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard 805 -988 -6626 NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Weather. gov/losangeles