Field Experiments Brooklyn College City University of New

현장실험(Field Experiments)의 설 계와 해석 하상응 Brooklyn College – City University of New York (CUNY)

현장 실험을 활용한 최근 연구들 선출직 입법의원들의 Responsiveness Butler, Daniel M. , and David E. Broockman. 2011. “Do Politicians Racially Discriminate Against Constituents? A Field Experiment on State Legislators” American Journal of Political Science. 55(3): 463477. 국제비정부기구(INGO)의 부정선거 감시활동 Hyde, Susan D. 2010. “Experimenting in Democracy Promotion: International Observers and the 2004 Presidential Elections in Indonesia” Perspectives on Politics. 8(2): 511 -527. 매스미디어를 통한 Reconciliation Paluck, Elizabeth Levy, and Donald P. Green. 2009. “Deference, Dissent, and Dispute Resolution: A Field Experiment on a Mass Media Intervention in Rwanda” American Political Science Review. 103(4): 622 -644.

자연 실험을 활용한 최근 연구들 교육감 선거 시기와 교사 노조의 영향력 Anzia, Sarah F. 2012. “The Election Timing Effect: Evidence from a Policy Intervention in Texas” Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 7(3): 209 -248. Hurricane Katrina, 인종주의 Hopkins, Daniel J. 2012. “Flooded Communities: Explaining Local Reactions to the Post-Katrina Migrants” Political Research Quarterly. 65(2): 443 -459. Blue Law 철폐, 교회 출석율, 그리고 투표율 Gerber, Alan S. , Jonathan Gruber, and Daniel M. Hungerman. “Does Church Attendance Cause People to Vote? Using Blue Laws’ Repeal to Estimate the Effect of Religiosity on Voter Turnout” NBER Working Paper. No. 14303.

현장 실험을 통해 구축한 자료의 분 석 고려해야 될 사항 Randomization check Intent-to-Treat Effect (ITT) Treatment-on-Treated Effect (TOT) 분석법 OLS (or its equivalent) 2 SLS (a. k. a. , 도구변수 회귀 instrumental variable regression) DID (Difference-in-difference): 실험 전-후 정보가 다 있을 경우

자료 분석의 예: ITT Gerber, Alan S. , Donald P. Green, and Christopher W. Larimer. 2008. “Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment. ” American Political Science Review. 102(1): 33 -48. 서로 다른 메세지를 담은 엽서를 보내서 투표를 독려하 는 사업의 효과를 확인하는 실험 미시간 주, 2006년 8월 주지사 예비선거 180, 002 가구에 당파성이 없는 GOTV (Get-Out-To-Vote) 엽서를 보냄 4개의 treatment (Appendix A) Table 1, Table 2, and Table 3

자료분석의 예: TOT Green, Donald P. , Alan S. Gerber, and David W. Nickerson. 2003. “Getting Out the Vote in Local Elections: Results from Six Door-to-door Canvassing Experiments” Journal of Politics. 65(4): 1083 -1096. 지방선거 직전 가가호호 방문을 통해 투표를 독려 하는 사업의 효과를 측정하는 실험 방문하기로 되어있던 상당수의 가구는 방문하지 못하는 상황이 발생함 (failure to treat) Table 2

유용한 저술들 현장 실험 Gerber, Alan S. , and Donald P. Green. 2012. Field Experiments: Design, Analysis, and Interpretation. New York: W. W. Norton. 자연 실험 Dunning, Thad. 2012. Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences. New York: Cambridge University Press. 서베이 실험 Mutz, Diana C. 2011. Population-based Survey Experiments. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

유용한 링크들 Institution for Social and Policy Studies (ISPS) http: //isps. yale. edu/ The Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) http: //www. povertyactionlab. org/ Experiments in Governance and Politics (EGAP) http: //e-gap. org/