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Fiber Deployment 1995 FCC Update Estimate for 2006 Total Fiber = 14. 4 M miles Total Fiber = 110 M miles IXCs: 2. 8 M miles, up 8% LECs: 10. 9 M miles, up 18% CAPs: 0. 8 M miles, up 92% Cable TV, Utilities: N. A.

What’s Needed in 2006? Several forecasts indicate: • Backbone: 5 X today’s traffic (Erlangs) and 20 X today’s bit rate • Loop: 5 X today’s traffic and 100 X today’s bit rate, plus heterogeneous traffic

Growth in Network Busy-Hour Traffic RACE Analysis for the U. K. 300 x Total Throughput (Erlang • Mbit/s) 100 x 150 x 30 x Growth 10 x 2% / month 8 x 3 x Total Load (Erlangs) 1 x 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: Analysys / RACE, IEEE Commun. Mag. , February 1995 2005 2010

Internet Evolution Growth in Packet Traffic 100, 000 WWW starts 10, 000 10% / month! (Mpackets/mo) 1, 000 10 1970 Arpanet TCP/IP transition NSFNet starts 1980 Source: Richard Binder, Corporation for National Research Initiatives High-capacity trunks introduced 1990 2000

World Wide Web Growth 120 110, 000 100 80 WWW Sites (Thousands) 30% / month! 60 40, 000 40 27, 000 20 0 130 623 6/93 12/93 Sources: Sun Microsystems, Wall St. Journal 1, 265 11, 576 6/94 12/94 2/95 4/95 10/95

The Backbone Network Fiber capacity seems on-track • Recent WDM up to 40 ’s, TDM up to 40 Gbit/s • • Cost? Complexity and network management? Reliability and increased survivability? Switching and power?

The Access Network Current options and new initiatives should meet 2006’s needs • A dozen choices now • • • High costs for digital services Fiber-to-the-home? Premises wiring, networking, and automation

Fiber to the Home What’s the Status of Key Issues • High cost? – PONs, loop lasers, Li-ion plastic batteries – MPEG compression – ATM multiplexing – VLSI, other opto, fiber • Operational savings quantified (M&P, powering) • Bandwidth needs emerging (e. g. , WWW, HQ TV) • Continued focus outside U. S. ; “FSAN” initiative

FTTH Can Prove-In Now Suburban Homes Passed per Mile Rural FTTH Less Expensive FTTC Less Expensive Service Demand R. C. Menendez et al. (to be published)

The Premises Challenge Residential Gateways and Home Networks Telco Cable TV Electric utility “RG” Satellite antenna RF, MMDS, LMDS antenna Telephone wiring TV, A / V, PC networks Security networks Home automation networks HVAC network AC power network

Premises Opportunities • By 2006, > 20 M homes rewired – Solves technical issues with digital delivery • By 2006, $5 B market for gateways – Fully automated provisioning & testing – Simplify a multi-access environment – Important new home “appliances” • Likely new opportunity for fiber