Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office
- Slides: 18
Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Operational thunderstorm nowcasting in the Alpine region using 3 D-radar severe weather parameters and lightning data Alessandro Hering 1, Urs Germann 1, Marco Boscacci 1, Stéphane Sénési 2 Meteo. Swiss, Locarno-Monti, Switzerland 2 Météo-France, Toulouse, France. 1
Montreux, Lake Geneva, 18. 7. 2005 Source: Webcam Hotel Splendid, Montreux, Switzerland 2
Montreux, Lake Geneva, 18. 7. 2005 Source: Webcam Hotel Splendid, Montreux, Switzerland 3
Montreux, Lake Geneva, 18. 7. 2005 Source: Webcam Hotel Splendid, Montreux, Switzerland 4
TRT (Thunderstorms Radar Tracking) 18. 7. 2005 (12: 50 -14: 35) TRT Cell-based VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid) 220 km TRT Cell tracking 13 d. BZ 25 d. BZ 40 d. BZ 55 d. BZ Montreux (webcam) 5
TRT (Thunderstorms Radar Tracking) 18. 7. 2005 (12: 50 -14: 35) TRT Cell-based VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid) 220 km TRT Cell tracking 13 d. BZ 25 d. BZ 40 d. BZ 55 d. BZ 6
TRT (Thunderstorms Radar Tracking) 18. 7. 2005 (12: 50 -14: 35) TRT Cell-based VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid) 220 km TRT Cell tracking 13 d. BZ 25 d. BZ 40 d. BZ 55 d. BZ 7
Scan geometry, Orography • Scan geometry of Swiss radar La Dôle situated on a mountain top (1680 m a. s. l. ) near Geneva • Orography roughly in the direction of the hail swath on 18 July 2005 Montreux (webcam) 8
TRT (Thunderstorms Radar Tracking) • TRT: real-time object-oriented tool for thunderstorms nowcasting based on multiple-radar composites • 2003: TRT operational at Meteo. Swiss • Detection: Dynamic reflectivity thresholding scheme • cells detected at individual thresholds: 36 -48 d. BZ • 2004: Improved cell position extrapolation • 2005: Lightning data added → multiple-sensors system • 2006: 3 D multiple-radar derived storm properties cell-based (time series), grid-based (2 D horizontal fields): • VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid) • Echo. Tops 15/45 d. BZ • Max storm reflectivity altitude 9
Operational view: cell-based attributes VIL, 15/45 Echo. Tops, storm altitudes: • Cartesian composite 3 C-band Doppler radars • 20 elevation scan ( -0. 3° / 40°) • 12 CAPPI between 1 and 12 km • 5 min Lightning data: • CG positive/negative 10
The severe hailstorm on 18 July 2005 • One cell, 11: 00 -15: 00 UTC, developed to a supercell hailstorm moving over Lake Geneva to western Switzerland • 250 km track • hail swath 1200 km 2 • 8 people injured • 15'000 cars damaged • several vineyards destroyed • Insured claims > € 70 millions 11
Hail swath on 18 July 2005 540 km Dailycrop maximum grid-VIL 10 [kg/m 2] • Hail damage claims>(Swiss Hail Insurance) • Squares: communities where hail reported at least once 0 20 40 60 [kg/m 2] 12
Hail swath on 18 July 2005 • Maximum grid-VIL > 5 [kg/m 2] (10: 30 -17: 00 UTC) 100 km • Hail crop damage locations (Swiss Hail Insurance) 0 20 40 60 [kg/m 2] 13
Hail swath on 18 July 2005 • Maximum grid-VIL > 5 [kg/m 2] (10: 30 -17: 00 UTC) • Hail crop damage locations (Swiss Hail Insurance) • POH (Probability of Hail): Waldvogel et al. (1979) 100 km 3850 m Hail: ΔH ≥ 1. 4 km 0 20 40 60 80 100 [%] 14
Hail swath on 18 July 2005 • Maximum grid-VIL > 5 [kg/m 2] (10: 30 -17: 00 UTC) • Hail crop damage locations (Swiss Hail Insurance) • POH (Probability of Hail): Waldvogel et al. (1979) 3850 m VIL 0 Hail: ΔH ≥ 1. 4 km POH 20 [kg/m 2] 40 60 0 20 40 [%] 60 80 100 15
18. 7. 2005: cell-based attributes Geneva (F 1 tornado) Montreux (F 2 tornado, 161 km/h) 16
18. 7. 2005: max cell-VIL distribution 17
Conclusions and outlook • Reliable operational thunderstorms identification, tracking and 3 D characterisation in Alpine area needs: • high resolution in height / time: 20 -elev. (-0. 3° / 40°) in 5 min • dynamic reflectivity thresholding scheme: TRT • multiple-radar composites • Nowcasting in Alpine area: • use 3 D storm attibutes VIL, 15/45 Echo. Tops, max storm refl. altitude, CG for assessing the severe weather potential of thunderstorms • combine grid-based 2 D-animations and cell-based time trends • Outlook Alpine area: • VIL: determine typical values, thresholds for occurrence of hail • explore use of POH!? (Probability of Hail, Waldvogel et al. ) • extend time series analysis to forecast thunderstorm development (stage in its life cycle) 18
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