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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus 5 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 26 -28. 3. 2007

Outline • Quick review of D-PHASE • Visualisation Platform and Data Archive • More

Outline • Quick review of D-PHASE • Visualisation Platform and Data Archive • More on atmospheric models • list of output variables • model products • alerts • Dry-runs • Timetable • Organisation D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 2

Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation

Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 3

End-to-end forecasting system D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood

End-to-end forecasting system D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 4

Atmospheric models: ensembles • COSMO-LEPS (COSMO) • 10 km; +132 h; COSMO-LEPS EFI (Meteo.

Atmospheric models: ensembles • COSMO-LEPS (COSMO) • 10 km; +132 h; COSMO-LEPS EFI (Meteo. Swiss) • MOGREPS (Met Office, United Kingdom) • 25 km; +54 h • SREPS (INM, Spain) • 27 km, +72 h • COSMO-SREPS (COSMO) • 10 km, +72 h • PEPS (SRNWP) • 7 km, +42 h • micro-PEPS (DWD for D-PHASE) • 2 km; +18 h D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 5

End-to-end forecasting system D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood

End-to-end forecasting system D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 6

Atmospheric models: high resolution • MM 5 (University of Hohenheim) • 2 km (?

Atmospheric models: high resolution • MM 5 (University of Hohenheim) • 2 km (? ); +24 h (? ) • COSMO-models (COSMO) • 2. 2 km; +18 h • 2. 8 km; +30 h, +48 h, +21 h • AROME (Météo-France) • 4 km (output grid); +30 h • MOLOCH (ISAC-CNR, Italy) • 2. 2 km; +39 h • GEM-LAM (EC, Canada) • 2. 5 km; +24 h • MOLOCH, MM 5, and WRF outside of COPS domain • ALADIN and QBOLAM at coarser resolution D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 7

End-to-end forecasting system D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood

End-to-end forecasting system D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 10

Hydrological catchments D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events

Hydrological catchments D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 11

End-to-end forecasting system L A U Y IT E S S A S S

End-to-end forecasting system L A U Y IT E S S A S S D E Q D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 14

Common (centralised) platforms Visualisation Platform (VP): • to visualise (display) all products and all

Common (centralised) platforms Visualisation Platform (VP): • to visualise (display) all products and all alerts; main source of information forecasters and end users (and possibly also useful for COPS mission planning team) • interface for (some of) the users to submit their feedback on the available products and alerts, respectively • realised by Next Generation Software (Salzburg) • www. d-phase. info D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 15

VP, level 1: Alpine region select forecast range today go to: tomorrow days 3

VP, level 1: Alpine region select forecast range today go to: tomorrow days 3 - 5 model products select accumulation time Σ 03 h Σ 06 h Σ 12 h Σ 24 h Σ 48 h monitoring products Σ 72 h max feedback

VP, level 2: Alpine sub-region, country select forecast range Σ 03 h Σ 06

VP, level 2: Alpine sub-region, country select forecast range Σ 03 h Σ 06 h Σ 12 h Σ 24 h Σ 48 h Σ 72 h max forecaster 2 days 3 - 5 det model 4 tomorrow ensemble 3 today select accumulation time 44% 57% go to: model products nowcasting products monitoring products feedback

VP, level 3 -a: target area today & tomorrow days 3 - 5 now

VP, level 3 -a: target area today & tomorrow days 3 - 5 now select forecast range Tue 16 00 ensemble system 3 IT: 15. 10 12 UTC deterministic model 4 IT: 16. 10 03 UTC deterministic model 7 IT: 16. 10 00 UTC 00 12 Wed 17 12 00 S 03 h 63% 36% 58% 24% max: 31 mm / 03 h on Tue 16. 10 at 21 UTC (mean: 22 mm / 03 h; min: 1 mm / 03 h) S 06 h 52% 88% 70% 64% max: 53 mm / 06 h on Tue 16. 10 at 21 UTC (mean: 38 mm / 06 h; min: 12 mm / 06 h) S 12 h 38% 44% 50% 59% 54% 78% max: 80 mm / 12 h on Wed 17. 10 at 03 UTC (mean: 54 mm / 12 h; min: 21 mm / 12 h) S 24 h 38% 46% 52% max: 96 mm / 24 h on Wed 17. 10 at 06 UTC (mean: 68 mm / 24 h; min: 31 mm / 24 h) S 03 h max: 55 mm / 03 h on Tue 16. 10 at 15 UTC S 06 h max: 61 mm / 06 h on Tue 16. 10 at 16 UTC S 12 h max: 61 mm / 12 h on Tue 17. 10 at 16 UTC S 24 h max: 61 mm / 24 h on Tue 17. 10 at 16 UTC S 03 h max: 20 mm / 03 h on Tue 16. 10 at 16 UTC S 06 h max: 20 mm / 06 h on Tue 16. 10 at 16 UTC S 12 h S 24 h show 2 D field go to: model products nowcasting products show meteogram monitoring products example for today & tomorrow differences for days 3 – 5: bins of 6 hrs (rather than 3/1) & 12/24/48/72 hrs sums (rather than 03/06/12/24) show thresholds feedback

Common (centralised) platforms Data Archive (DA) • to archive all data, alerts, and feedbacks;

Common (centralised) platforms Data Archive (DA) • to archive all data, alerts, and feedbacks; mainly for verification purposes • also stores all COPS and GOP data • physically based at the MPI in Hamburg ! S K N A H T D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 21

More on atmospheric models ! S • list of output variables • final version

More on atmospheric models ! S • list of output variables • final version of document K N A H T • model products • specification document should be finalised as soon as possible; waiting for feedback from COPS • generation of atmospheric model products ('quicklooks') with a common Gr. ADS script kindly provided by COPS (Matthias Grzeschik and Hans. Stefan Bauer, University of Hohenheim) • display of model products on D-PHASE Visualisation Platform as well as at COPS OC • alerts D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 23

Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007 • Pilot users only: CLEPS/Montani, MOGREPS/Robertson, MM

Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007 • Pilot users only: CLEPS/Montani, MOGREPS/Robertson, MM 5/Bauer, COSMOCH 2/Ament, LAMI 7/Cesari, ISACMOL/Davolio, DIMOSOP/Ranzi, and PREVAH/Jaun&Zappa. • Very useful: • it triggered a lot of activities; • we all realised that there still is a lot to be done; • it showed us that our aim of a state-of-the-art distributed end-to-end forecasting system is realistic; • it confirmed that D-PHASE indeed has the potential to become a very successful demonstration project; • all in all a good motivation for the time (and work!) ahead. D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 24

Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007 • Visualisation Platform (VP): • first version

Dry-runs: 26 February – 2 March 2007 • Visualisation Platform (VP): • first version of level 1 running • xml upload and visualisation successful • display of model products not yet available (as are a few other things) • VP will remain online, also in between the dry-runs: http: //www. d-phase. info (password-protection will be enabled shortly before the DOP) • Data Archive (DA): • upload and retrieval successfully tested More details tomorrow ( Claudia Wunram) D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 25

Timetable Dry-runs: à 26 February – 2 March 2007 à 29 March – 4

Timetable Dry-runs: à 26 February – 2 March 2007 à 29 March – 4 April 2007 à 24 April – 30 April 2007 Ramp-up: 24 May – 31 May 2007 D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP): 1 June – 30 November 2007 D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 26

Organisation • Steering Committee • Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D),

Organisation • Steering Committee • Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D), Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi, Rossa (I), Mylne (UK) • Working Groups • • WG-DI: Data interface chair: Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM (I) WG-HEU: Hydrology and end users co-chairs: Roberto Ranzi, U Brescia (I), Christoph Hegg, WSL (CH) WG-VER: Verification chair: Manfred Dorninger, U Vienna (A) WG-DP: Data policy chair Mathias Rotach, Meteo. Swiss (CH) • Project Coordinator: marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch • For details: http: //www. map. meteoswiss. ch/d-phase D-PHASE | Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus [at] meteoswiss. ch) 27