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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Plans of Meteo. Swiss for 2007/2008 Philippe Steiner 20 th September 2007

Top priorities Operationalisation of COSMO-2 until February 2008 • still some migration work to

Top priorities Operationalisation of COSMO-2 until February 2008 • still some migration work to do (frontend) • Preoperational phase of CN MET starting October 2007 • Project for the security around the nuclear power plants • High resolution (time and space) wind fields in PBL Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 2

Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Status at CSCS since July 2007 frontends number crunchers COSMO-2

Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Status at CSCS since July 2007 frontends number crunchers COSMO-2 2 nodes IBM SP 5, 768 cpu DB and R&D COSMO-7 SGI O 3200, 8 cpu Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch Cray XT 4, 447 dual cores Cray XT 3, 68 dual cores 3

Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Migration of frontend functions number crunchers incl. frontend COSMO-2 2

Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Migration of frontend functions number crunchers incl. frontend COSMO-2 2 nodes IBM SP 5, 768 cpu DB and R&D COSMO-7 SGI O 3200, 8 cpu Cray XT 4, 447 dual cores Cray XT 3, 68 dual cores Replacement of IBM-nodes and SGI prob. by service nodes of Cray Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 4

Plattforms for operational suite Final configuration number cruncher incl. frontend 2 nodes COSMO-2 &

Plattforms for operational suite Final configuration number cruncher incl. frontend 2 nodes COSMO-2 & COSMO-7 IBM SP 5, 768 cpu DB and R&D Cray XT 4, 447 dual cores SGI O 3200, 8 cpu Use COSMO-7 at 6. 6 km out of the cascade Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 5

Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-7 • Numerics based on Runge-Kutta • Switch from 7

Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-7 • Numerics based on Runge-Kutta • Switch from 7 km to 6. 6 km • Preparation for mosaic • New SLEVE II coordinates • with constant lowest levels • New 60 vertical levels • same as COSMO-2, similar to IFS • Improvement of the PBL diagnosis Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 6

Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-2 • Latent heat nudging • using Swiss radar composite

Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-2 • Latent heat nudging • using Swiss radar composite • New SLEVE II coordinates • with constant lowest levels Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 7

Development activities • Improvement of interpolation (INT 2 LM) • Thermodynamic: better relaxation of

Development activities • Improvement of interpolation (INT 2 LM) • Thermodynamic: better relaxation of water species • Use diagnostic PBL height in the vertical interpolation • Improved representation of the land surface • Measurement driven soil moisture analysis (MSMA) • Mosaic approach • Assimilation of new observation streams: • wind profiles from VAD/sodar • humidity profiles from GPS-tomograpy • Improve PBL analysis by use of near-surface observations Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 8

Vertical Resolution in the PBL • Experienced problems with high vertical resolution in COSMO

Vertical Resolution in the PBL • Experienced problems with high vertical resolution in COSMO Radiosonde “High-resolution” COSMO other • • • “Lower resolution” COSMO Causes for the problems with a high vertical resolution in the PBL? Investigate relationship between Dx and Dz in complex terrain Improve coupling numerics/physics Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 9

Project D-PHASE exploit the collected information Issues that can be addressed • QPF Performance

Project D-PHASE exploit the collected information Issues that can be addressed • QPF Performance of today NWP models in the Alps? Dependency on considered temporal and spatial scales or on the intensity regime of the rainfall? • Improvements: What strategy has the highest potential to improve QPF in near future: Higher spatial resolution, ensembles (of what type) or calibrated forecasts (e. g. EFI)? • Processes: How well can high resolution NWP models represent the processes leading to precipitation? • Predictability: Can we forecast the predictability? Are classical ensembles or multi model ensembles more skillful – or can we determine the predictability from existing parameters of deterministic forecasts (flow direction, stratification, weather regime, …)? Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 12

Project NCCR climate II Task Reanalyse Extreme Events • Complete 30 years of COSMO-LEPS

Project NCCR climate II Task Reanalyse Extreme Events • Complete 30 years of COSMO-LEPS climatology • Calibrate COSMO-LEPS and verify • Derive new warning products from calibrated COSMOLEPS for multiple parameters (precip. , wind gusts, temperature, snow…) Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 13

Project Opti. Control Objective Exploit newest developments in building & information technologies, weather forecasting,

Project Opti. Control Objective Exploit newest developments in building & information technologies, weather forecasting, automation and control systems to improve the indoor climate control of buildings (energy efficiency, costs, comfort) Participants ETH Zurich: IBZ & IFA Empa Meteo. Swiss Siemens Building Technologies Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch Sponsors Competence Centre Energy and Mobility of ETH swisselectric research Siemens Building Technologies 14

Project Opti. Control model predictive control COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-LEPS (uncertain) occupancy forecasts (uncertain) weather

Project Opti. Control model predictive control COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-LEPS (uncertain) occupancy forecasts (uncertain) weather forecasts disturbances: weather, occupancy Building Controller system constraints, comfort rules hourly input cooling light room temp. heating energy efficiency, comfort model-based optimisation measurements Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 15

Project Opti. Control Targets of Meteo. Swiss COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-LEPS (uncertain) weather forecasts Controller

Project Opti. Control Targets of Meteo. Swiss COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-LEPS (uncertain) weather forecasts Controller model-based optimisation amelioration of local forecasts for near surface parameters (T 2 m, GLOB, LWIN, v, …) characterisation and quantification of uncertainties with focus on special weather situations assess postprocessing methods, e. g. : MOS (spec. COSMO-7) Kalman. F (new for LEPS) Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 16

Verification Introduction of a new global forecast score in 2008 MOVI = Meteo. Swiss

Verification Introduction of a new global forecast score in 2008 MOVI = Meteo. Swiss Objective Verification Index • verification of Model- (DMO & Postprocessing) and Human-Forecast • quantify the added value of postprocessing and forecasters • based on the UKMO approach • every forecast day from T+1 to T+7 • COSMO-7, COSMO-LEPS, IFS • parameters verified: • 2 m-temperature: max, min • precipitation • relative sunshine duration • 10 m-wind speed & direction • methods for the score conversion: • Variance Reduction (continuous parameters) • Equitable Threat Score (categorical parameters) Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 17

Thank you for your attention Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe.

Thank you for your attention Plans of Meteo. Swiss | COSMO GM 2007 philippe. [email protected] ch 18