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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss WG 4 activities Pierre Eckert, Meteo. Swiss, Geneva

Topics • COSMO LEPS (A. Montani) • Communication to and from forecasters • Postprocessing

Topics • COSMO LEPS (A. Montani) • Communication to and from forecasters • Postprocessing COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 2

What verification is useful to forecasters? • Verification has to be local (not too

What verification is useful to forecasters? • Verification has to be local (not too much)… • …and stratified • It can be stratified by type of phenomena (thunderstorms, drizzle, …) either observed or forecasted • Or by type of synoptic situation • The verification results can be used in order to implement targeted postprocessing (decision trees)… • …or be used by the forecasters in order • to correct the models • not to use them in certain situations • use different indicators from models (instability, …) • The verification should be relevant to the present version of the model COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 3

Work already done Precipitation bias by weather class (Zala) 2008, SW COSMO General meeting

Work already done Precipitation bias by weather class (Zala) 2008, SW COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 2008, flat 4

Work already done Fuzzy verification by weather class (Weusthoff) We think about how to

Work already done Fuzzy verification by weather class (Weusthoff) We think about how to communicate the results COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 5

More basic ideas • Other parameters than (radar) rainfall should be verified • Eckert

More basic ideas • Other parameters than (radar) rainfall should be verified • Eckert /Schubiger made a proposition (April 2009) • It should be tried out Stratified verification • 4 seasons • Synoptic classification (Zala, COST 733, …) • • Temperature (bias, STD) Dew point (bias, STD) Precipitation (Frequency bias, POD, FAR, ETS) Cloudiness, wind speed, wind gusts COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 6

Presentation to forecasters • Seasonal verification is summarised on the Meteo. Swiss Intranet (as

Presentation to forecasters • Seasonal verification is summarised on the Meteo. Swiss Intranet (as it was on the COSMO web for a couple of years) • In November 2008 a workshop between forecasters and modellers has been organised in order to improve the two way link between both “worlds” Redaction of “COSMO guidelines forecasters” Redaction of seasonal factsheets Listing of all forecasters feedback “good /bad cases”, with remarks and proposed actions from the modellers Definition of a model focal point in each regional forecasting centre COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 7

COSMO guidelines forecasters COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 8

COSMO guidelines forecasters COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 8

Seasonal factsheet autumn 2009 COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch

Seasonal factsheet autumn 2009 COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 9

Postprocessing • There is a need to generate combinations • Models with models •

Postprocessing • There is a need to generate combinations • Models with models • Models with mos • Models or MOS with observations This can be solved within the configuration of the visualisation platforms (Nin. Jo for D and CH). The exchange of useful configuration remains open COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 10

Plans (verification and communication) • Verification stratified by weather class: requests have been introduced

Plans (verification and communication) • Verification stratified by weather class: requests have been introduced for VERSUS 2. • But it could be tried before… • There is (strong) interest to share the Swiss experience in two way communication between modelers and forecasters. • focal point in each weather service? (responsible forecasting methods? Head of forecasting division? . . . ) COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 11

Postprocessing Local adaptation (MOS, Kalman) • Local adaptation is mainly done on global models

Postprocessing Local adaptation (MOS, Kalman) • Local adaptation is mainly done on global models (even very local phenomena like fog) • Some local adaptation on 7 km and 2 km COMO models is done: temperature, wind speed COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 12

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Preliminary results for wind 14

Preliminary results for wind 14

Postprocessing COSMO-LEPS mean spread, lead time 24 h, May 2008 COSMO-LEPS mean spread, lead

Postprocessing COSMO-LEPS mean spread, lead time 24 h, May 2008 COSMO-LEPS mean spread, lead time 123 h, May 2008 Ø Need for local correction of bias Ø And for local correction of spread Ø Kalman filter for bias and spread (see Vanessa Stauch) COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 15

Postprocessing plans • How does postprocessing on global models compare to DMO from high

Postprocessing plans • How does postprocessing on global models compare to DMO from high resolution (HR) models? Verification has to be made with thresholds. Or with stratification. • What postprocessing methods are suitable to be applied on high resolution models? • Production of special parameters: fog, visibility, clouds base, … (aviation). COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 16

COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 17

COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 17

This is the end of this presentation Thank you for your attention COSMO General

This is the end of this presentation Thank you for your attention COSMO General meeting ¦ Offenbach, September 2009 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 18