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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Latest results on Applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 Pirmin Kaufmann, Meteo. Swiss COSMO GM INTERP parallel session

Neighbourhood method • • • Probabilistic forecast from deterministic model Represents probability related to

Neighbourhood method • • • Probabilistic forecast from deterministic model Represents probability related to local-scale spatial and temporal model uncertainty and predictability Important especially on small scales (e. g. thunderstorms) ? ? Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch ? ? 2

Ellipsoidal neighbourhood • Original shape of Theis et al. (2005) • Used operationally at

Ellipsoidal neighbourhood • Original shape of Theis et al. (2005) • Used operationally at DWD for COSMO-DE (2. 8 km): • rxy=13, rt=1 • Spatial radius decreases with increasing distance in time: Space-time dependency t y x Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 3

Cylindrical neighbourhood with fading zone • Used pre-operationally at Meteo. Swiss • Settings at

Cylindrical neighbourhood with fading zone • Used pre-operationally at Meteo. Swiss • Settings at Meteo. Swiss: • COSMO-7 (6. 6 km): rxy= 5, rf= 5, rt=3 • COSMO-2 (2. 2 km): rxy=10, rf=10, rt=1 • Assuming spatial and temporal uncertainty are independent t y x Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 4

Fading zone: Linearly fading weights COSMO-2, COSMO-7 neighbourhood • Fading zone (sponge layer) with

Fading zone: Linearly fading weights COSMO-2, COSMO-7 neighbourhood • Fading zone (sponge layer) with decreasing weight added around central cylinder with weight 1 • Lower contribution of distant grid points to probability • Smoother probability field, less circular shapes Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 5

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Comparison of shapes

Case 21 April 2008 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest

Case 21 April 2008 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 7

Threshold 15 mm / 3 h Obs. 6 UTC cylindrical > 15 mm /

Threshold 15 mm / 3 h Obs. 6 UTC cylindrical > 15 mm / 3 h rxy=10 rf =10 rt = 1 ellipsoidal rxy=13 rt = 1 cylindrical rxy= 8 rf = 8 rt = 1 Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 8

Threshold 25 mm / 6 h Obs. 6 UTC cylindrical > 25 mm /

Threshold 25 mm / 6 h Obs. 6 UTC cylindrical > 25 mm / 6 h rxy=10 rf =10 rt = 1 ellipsoidal rxy=13 rt = 1 cylindrical rxy= 8 rf = 8 rt = 1 Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 9

Threshold 35 mm / 12 h Obs. 12 UTC cylindrical > 35 mm /

Threshold 35 mm / 12 h Obs. 12 UTC cylindrical > 35 mm / 12 h rxy=10 rf =10 rt = 1 ellipsoidal rxy=13 rt = 1 cylindrical rxy= 8 rf = 8 rt = 1 Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 10

Case 17 May 2008 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest

Case 17 May 2008 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 11

Threshold 15 mm / 3 h Obs. 0 UTC cylindrical rxy=10 rf =10 rt

Threshold 15 mm / 3 h Obs. 0 UTC cylindrical rxy=10 rf =10 rt = 1 ellipsoidal rxy=13 rt = 1 > 15 mm / 3 h cylindrical rxy= 8 rf = 8 rt = 1 Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 12

Threshold 25 mm / 6 h Obs. 0 UTC cylindrical rxy=10 rf =10 rt

Threshold 25 mm / 6 h Obs. 0 UTC cylindrical rxy=10 rf =10 rt = 1 ellipsoidal rxy=13 rt = 1 > 25 mm / 6 h cylindrical rxy= 8 rf = 8 rt = 1 Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 13

Threshold 35 mm / 12 h Obs. 6 UTC cylindrical rxy=10 rf =10 rt

Threshold 35 mm / 12 h Obs. 6 UTC cylindrical rxy=10 rf =10 rt = 1 ellipsoidal rxy=13 rt = 1 > 35 mm / 12 h cylindrical rxy= 8 rf = 8 rt = 1 Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 14

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Recent cases with preoperational setting

12 July: high probabilities match well with precipitation pattern Probability of 12 h sum

12 July: high probabilities match well with precipitation pattern Probability of 12 h sum above 35 mm 06 – 18 UTC 18 – 06 UTC 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 16

13 July: partially ok, partially underestimated Probability of 12 h sum above 35 mm

13 July: partially ok, partially underestimated Probability of 12 h sum above 35 mm 06 – 18 UTC 18 – 06 UTC 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 17

17 July: completely missed event Probability of 12 h sum above 35 mm 06

17 July: completely missed event Probability of 12 h sum above 35 mm 06 – 18 UTC 18 – 06 UTC 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 18

12 August: Jura and Alps underestimated Swiss plateau completely missed Probability of 12 h

12 August: Jura and Alps underestimated Swiss plateau completely missed Probability of 12 h sum above 35 mm 06 – 18 UTC 18 – 06 UTC 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 19

15 August: high probabilities match well with precipitation pattern Probability of 12 h sum

15 August: high probabilities match well with precipitation pattern Probability of 12 h sum above 35 mm 06 – 18 UTC 18 – 06 UTC 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 20

9 September: first Jura, then Alps Probability of 12 h sum above 35 mm

9 September: first Jura, then Alps Probability of 12 h sum above 35 mm 06 – 18 UTC 18 – 06 UTC 24 h sum 06 – 06 UTC next day Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 21

Summary • Objective verification still needs to be done … • Preoperational settings at

Summary • Objective verification still needs to be done … • Preoperational settings at Meteo. Swiss: • COSMO-7: rxy= 5, rf= 5, rt=3 • COSMO-2: rxy=10, rf=10, rt=1 Latest results on applications of the Neighbourhood method to COSMO-2 | COSMO GM INTERP Pirmin. [email protected] ch 22