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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus 4 th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 -26. 9. 2006

Outline • Quick review of MAP D-PHASE • Common interest and joint efforts with

Outline • Quick review of MAP D-PHASE • Common interest and joint efforts with COPS • Storage of atmospheric model data • list of variables • output format • storage space needed • Generation and visualisation of atmospheric model products • Questions to COPS • Milestones, organisation, and 1 st MAP D-PHASE Meeting Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 2

Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) • MAP: 1 st WWRP RDP • Phase 1: Preparation,

Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) • MAP: 1 st WWRP RDP • Phase 1: Preparation, 1993 – 1999 • Phase 2: Special Observing Period, Sep – Nov 1999 • Phase 3: Analysis, ongoing (formally ended in Sep 2006) • MAP D-PHASE: • Phase 4 of MAP: Demonstration • Focus: • heavy precipitation … • … and hydrology • Endorsed as 2 nd WWRP FDP in Oct 2005 • D-PHASE: Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region • June – November 2007 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 3

D-PHASE Approach: Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system, including • (limited-area) probabilistic forecasting, both for

D-PHASE Approach: Distributed real-time end-to-end forecasting system, including • (limited-area) probabilistic forecasting, both for atmospheric and hydrological processes • high-resolution deterministic modelling & nowcasting • centralised visualisation of model data and alerts • forecasters and end users • evaluation, objective and subjective Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 4

end-to-end forecasting system Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus@meteoswiss. ch) 6

end-to-end forecasting system Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 6

Atmospheric models: ensembles COSMO-LEPS MOGREPS SRNWP PEPS micro-PEPS … Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus

Atmospheric models: ensembles COSMO-LEPS MOGREPS SRNWP PEPS micro-PEPS … Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 8

Atmospheric models: high-resolution and others … Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. arpagaus@meteoswiss. ch)

Atmospheric models: high-resolution and others … Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 10

Hydrological catchments Emilia-Romagna (Reno, Secchia) Liguria Lombardia (Oglio, Mella) Bavaria (Iller, Lech, Isar) Lago

Hydrological catchments Emilia-Romagna (Reno, Secchia) Liguria Lombardia (Oglio, Mella) Bavaria (Iller, Lech, Isar) Lago Maggiore Canton of Glarus (Linth) Canton of Wallis (Rhône) … Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 11

International collaboration: COPS • Joint data archive • data (atmospheric and hydrological models, nowcasting

International collaboration: COPS • Joint data archive • data (atmospheric and hydrological models, nowcasting tools, observational data) & data derived products • alerts • feedbacks • Generation of atmospheric model products (‘quicklooks’) • Visualisation of atmospheric model products Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 12

Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored TIGGE (http: //tigge. ecmwf. int)

Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored TIGGE (http: //tigge. ecmwf. int) – inspired: • single level fields (up to 41 per output cycle) • e. g. , 2 m air temperature, Total precipitation: grid-scale only, Total column cloud ice (ice water content), Surface short wave radiation (outgoing), Convective Inhibition, … • upper-air fields (up to 11 variables) • e. g. , temperature, cloud water, graupel, … • on up to 9 pressure levels • on (some or all) model levels For details, check here (or in the COPS/GOP/D-PHASE Common Data Implementation Plan!) Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 13

Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored Different output for COPS and

Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored Different output for COPS and MAP D-PHASE domains • ensembles (D-PHASE domain) • single level fields (22, 3 -hourly) • upper-air fields on pressure levels (54, 3 -hourly) • deterministic driving models (D-PHASE domain) • single level fields (41, hourly) • upper-air fields on pressure levels (54, hourly) Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 14

Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored • high-resolution deterministic models •

Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored • high-resolution deterministic models • single level fields (41, hourly), upper-air fields on pressure levels (54, hourly), and upper-air fields on model levels up to 4000 m above msl (180, hourly) for D-PHASE domain • additionally, but for COPS domain and 1. 6. 2007 – 31. 8. 2007, only • single level fields (41, every 15 minutes) • upper-air fields on (9) pressure levels (99, every 15 minutes) • all upper-air fields on (60) model levels (660, every 15 minutes) Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 15

Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored Output format: GRIB 1 (details

Atmospheric model data: List of variables to be stored Output format: GRIB 1 (details to be specified by WG-DI) Estimated storage space: • • ensembles 311 GB PEPS and micro-PEPS 184 GB deterministic driving models 337 GB high-resolution models (D-PHASE domain) GB • high-resolution models (COPS domain) 7456 GB • total storage space for all models GB Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 16752 8461 16

Atmospheric model data: Visualisation • Generation of atmospheric model products with a common plotting

Atmospheric model data: Visualisation • Generation of atmospheric model products with a common plotting software (which will be provided by COPS) to ensure uniform ‘look and feel’. Options: • Generation on CPU and disk at M&D (triggered by COPS or model providers). • Generation on computational environment of model providers. List of products to be defined … • If possible, use of common visualisation tool and/or platform. Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 17

Questions to COPS (and observational data providers) … • • • List of atmospheric

Questions to COPS (and observational data providers) … • • • List of atmospheric model output variables ok? Input for list of model products? Any alerts needed? Anything missing? …? Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 18

Other international collaborations • Meteorisk (http: //www. meteorisk. info) • Joint visualisation platform •

Other international collaborations • Meteorisk (http: //www. meteorisk. info) • Joint visualisation platform • THORPEX/TIGGE • ETRe. C 07 • B 08 FDP/RDP • COST 731 Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 19

D-PHASE: Milestones • Completion of MAP D-PHASE Implementation Plan (and COPS/GOP/D-PHASE Common Data Implementation

D-PHASE: Milestones • Completion of MAP D-PHASE Implementation Plan (and COPS/GOP/D-PHASE Common Data Implementation Plan) as soon as possible, preferably until the MAP D-PHASE Meeting in Vienna (6 – 8 Nov 2006), e. g. , • specification of output variables, output format, model products, visualisation platform, and data flow • Dry run: 26. 2 – 2. 3. 2007 • data archive up and running • model output ready • generation of model products implemented • data flow established • visualisation platform set up Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 20

D-PHASE: Organisation • International Steering Committee • Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert,

D-PHASE: Organisation • International Steering Committee • Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D), Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci, Ranzi (I), Mylne (UK) • Working Groups • WG-DI: Data interface chair: Andrea Montani, ARPA-SIM (I) • WG-HEU: Hydrology and end users co-chairs: Roberto Ranzi, U Brescia (I), Christoph Hegg, WSL (CH) • WG-VER: Verification chair: Manfred Dorninger, U Vienna (A) • WG-DP: Data policy chair Mathias Rotach, Meteo. Swiss (CH) • Project Coordinator: marco. [email protected] ch • For details: http: //www. map. meteoswiss. ch/d-phase Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 21

1 st MAP D-PHASE Meeting • 6 – 8 November 2006 • Vienna (‘Springer

1 st MAP D-PHASE Meeting • 6 – 8 November 2006 • Vienna (‘Springer Schlössl’), Austria • Topics: • • • Probabilistic atmospheric and hydrological modelling Perturbations in high-resolution atmospheric and hydrological models New generation of high-resolution NWP models Hydrological modelling and verification Verification of ensemble forecasts Object oriented and grid point verification Nowcasting related to heavy orographically induced precipitation Cost/loss analysis and societal impact Needs and experience of forecasters and (end) users Case studies in heavy precipitation and flood forecasting • Check out http: //www. meteorologie. at/dphase_info. htm Status of D-PHASE Marco Arpagaus (marco. [email protected] ch) 22