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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss WG 4 activities Пьер Экер Meteo. Swiss, Geneva

Topics • COSMO LEPS • Stratified verification and guidelines forecasters • Sotchi Olympic games

Topics • COSMO LEPS • Stratified verification and guidelines forecasters • Sotchi Olympic games (at least some aspects of the meteorological side) • 2010 – 2011 Plans COSMO General meeting ¦ Moscow, September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 2

Present status and future plans of the COSMO-LEPS system Andrea Montani, D. Cesari, T.

Present status and future plans of the COSMO-LEPS system Andrea Montani, D. Cesari, T. Diomede, C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIMC Hydro. Meteo. Climate Regional Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy COSMO Genreal meeting Moscow

Dim 2 COSMO-LEPS methodology Possible evolution scenarios ensemble size reduction Cluster members chosen as

Dim 2 COSMO-LEPS methodology Possible evolution scenarios ensemble size reduction Cluster members chosen as representative members (RMs) Dim 1 LAM scenario Dim 2 Initial conditions LAM scenario LAM integrations driven by RMs LAM scenario Initial conditions Dim 1

Upgrades during the “COSMO year” • 16 November 2009: – archive of large-scale precipitation

Upgrades during the “COSMO year” • 16 November 2009: – archive of large-scale precipitation (62. 2) for both COSMO-LEPS members and LM-DET; • 30 November 2009: – implementation of COSMO-LEPS at 7 km (new domain, new perturbations (in types and values), lsso=. true. , lforest=. true. ); – upgrade of COSMO to model version 4. 8; • 12 July 2010: – upgrade of INT 2 LM to model version 1. 12; – upgrade of COSMO to model version 4. 12.

Outline • Introduction: Ø migration to the 7 -km system. COSMO-LEPS 10 km (old)

Outline • Introduction: Ø migration to the 7 -km system. COSMO-LEPS 10 km (old) COSMO-LEPS 7 km (new)

Implementation of COSMO-LEPS at 7 km Why? - to improve the forecast of near-surface

Implementation of COSMO-LEPS at 7 km Why? - to improve the forecast of near-surface parameters - to keep an “advantage” vs ECMWF EPS (running at 25 km) Old system x = 10 km z = 40 ML t = 90 s ngp = 306 x 258 x 40 = 3. 157. 920 fcst range = 132 h initial conditions: interpolated from EPS members perturbations: type of convection scheme; tur_len; pat_len. New system (COSMO-LEPS_7) x = 7 km z = 40 ML t = 60 s ngp = 511 x 415 x 40 = 8. 482. 600 fcst range = 132 h initial conditions: interpolated from EPS members merged with surface and soil-layer fields produced at DWD for COSMO-EU perturbations: type of convection scheme; tur_len; pat_len; crsmin; rat_sea; rlam_heat. COSMO-LEPS_7 tested from May to November 2009 (no merging yet)

COSMO-LEPS_10 (Old) vs COSMO-LEPS_7 (New) Ø Observations: SYNOP reports over either MAP D-PHASE region

COSMO-LEPS_10 (Old) vs COSMO-LEPS_7 (New) Ø Observations: SYNOP reports over either MAP D-PHASE region (450 reports/day) or the FULL-DOMAIN (1400 reports/day). Ø Method: nearest grid point; no-weighted fcst. • Deterministic verification of T 2 M ensemble mean Ø Ø Variable: 2 -metre temperature. Period: from June to November 2009. Forecast ranges: fc+6 h, fc+12 h, …, fc+132 h. Scores: root-mean-square error, bias. • Probabilistic verification of 12 -hour cumulated precipitation Ø Ø Ø Variable: 12 h cumulated precipitation (18 -06, 06 -18 UTC). Period: from June to November 2009. Forecast ranges: fc 6 -18 h, fc 18 -30 h, …, fc 114 -126 h. Scores: ROC area, BSS, RPSS, Outliers. Thresholds: 1, 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 mm/12 h.

Bias and rmse of T 2 M Ensemble Mean Ø Consider bias and rmse

Bias and rmse of T 2 M Ensemble Mean Ø Consider bias and rmse for 3 months (24/5 24/8/2009) over MAPDOM (∼ 450 synop). Ø T 2 m forecasts are corrected with height. ---- OLD rmse (10 km) ---- NEW rmse (7 km) —— OLD bias (10 km) —— NEW bias (7 km) Ø Bias closer to zero and lower rmse for the 7 -km suite. Ø Improvement is not “massive”, but detectable for all forecast ranges, especially for day-time verification. Ø Similar results over MAPDOM and over FULLDOM (not shown). Ø The signal is stable (same scores also for 6 -month verification).

ROC area, BSS for 12 -hour tp Ø Consider the event “ 10 mm

ROC area, BSS for 12 -hour tp Ø Consider the event “ 10 mm of precipitation in 12 hours” for ROC area and BSS (from Jun to Nov 2009). ROC area (both FULLDOM and MAPDOM) BSS (both FULLDOM and MAPDOM) Ø Better results for the 7 -km suite, both for ROC area and BSS values. Ø The impact is more evident for BSS. Ø Reduction of 12 -h cycle in 7 -km runs. Ø The improvement is detectable for all forecast ranges and for both MAPDOM and FULLDOM.

RPSS, OUTL for 12 -hour tp Ø Consider scores not-dependent on one single threshold

RPSS, OUTL for 12 -hour tp Ø Consider scores not-dependent on one single threshold (from Jun to Nov 2009). RPSS (both FULLDOM and MAPDOM) % of outliers (only MAPDOM) Ø Better results for the 7 -km suite in terms of RPSS. Ø The improvement is detectable for all forecast ranges and for both MAPDOM and FULLDOM. Ø The Percentage of outliers is only slightly reduced in the 7 -km suite (solid lines), but the gap is very small. Ø The 7 -km system has a positive impact in the reduction of the outliers BELOW THE MINIMUM for the MAPDOM (the same holds for FULLDOM, although not shown). COSMO-LEPS_7 implemented operationally on 1 December 2009

Time-series verification of COSMO-LEPS – SYNOP on the GTS Main features: variable: 12 h

Time-series verification of COSMO-LEPS – SYNOP on the GTS Main features: variable: 12 h cumulated precip (18 -06, 06 -18 UTC); period : from Dec 2002 to Jul 2010; region: 43 -50 N, 2 -18 E (MAP D-PHASE area); method: nearest grid point; no-weighted fcst; obs: synop reports (about 470 stations/day); fcst ranges: 6 -18 h, 18 -30 h, …, 102 -114 h, 114 -126 h; thresholds: 1, 5, 10, 15, 25, 50 mm/12 h; system: COSMO-LEPS; scores: ROC area, BSS, RPSS, Outliers, … both monthly and seasonal scores were computed

Time series of ROC area Ø Area under the curve in the HIT rate

Time series of ROC area Ø Area under the curve in the HIT rate vs FAR diagram; the higher, the better … Ø Valuable forecast systems have ROC area values > 0. 6. Ø Improvement of skill detectable for all thresholds along the years. Ø Poor performance of the system in Spring and Summer 2006 (both particularly dry), despite system upgrades. Ø Best performance in 2007 during DOP (D-PHASE Operation Period). Ø fc 30 -42 h: ROC area above 0. 8 since mid-2007 and good scores in 2010. Ø fc 78 -90 h: ROC area ALSO above 0. 8 in the last 10 months.

Main results Implementation of COSMO-LEPS_7 km. • The new system was tested in parallel

Main results Implementation of COSMO-LEPS_7 km. • The new system was tested in parallel suite for 6 months: Ø higher BSS and ROC area values for the probabilistic prediction of 12 -h precipitation with respect to the operational one, Ø lower T 2 M errors of the ensemble mean, Ø positive impact of the introduction of the new perturbations. • COSMO-LEPS_7 km was implemented on 1 December 2009. Time-series verification scores. • It is difficult to disentangle improvements related to COSMO-LEPS upgrades from those due to better EPS boundaries; nevertheless, positive trends can be identified: Ø Ø increase in BSS and ROC area scores reduction in outliers percentages; system upgrades of Dec 2007 brought small but positive impact; the increase in horizontal resolution had a clear positive impact last winter (also ECMWF EPS did well anyway …).

Cloudiness problem in the alpine region COSMO-LEPS median COSMO-7 Observations many members with a

Cloudiness problem in the alpine region COSMO-LEPS median COSMO-7 Observations many members with a too small diurnal cycle in 2 m temperature COSMO-LEPS predicts clearly more clouds than COSMO-7 large spread in deterministic case COSMO-LEPS cloud problem | COSMO GM 2010 André Walser (andre. [email protected] ch) 15

Reasons • Cloud problem in COSMO-LEPS seems to be caused by Kain-Fritsch together with

Reasons • Cloud problem in COSMO-LEPS seems to be caused by Kain-Fritsch together with a too moist boundary layer • Has dramatic impact on 2 m temperature • Too moist boundary layer is caused by a too moist soil Soil merge (COSMO-EU or assimilation cycle) should be introduced as soon as possible COSMO-LEPS cloud problem | COSMO GM 2010 André Walser (andre. [email protected] ch) 16

Future plans (1) • COSMO-LEPS_7 km: – use the soil moisture analysis fields provided

Future plans (1) • COSMO-LEPS_7 km: – use the soil moisture analysis fields provided by DWD; – save COSMO-LEPS output files on model levels (up to fc+48 h) for further downscaling; – test modifications of clustering methodologies: • always select control runs by ECMWF EPS; • consider shorter forecast ranges for clustering intervals (48 -72 h, 72 -96 h); – follow the outcome of ECMWF TAC-subgroup on BC project possible modifications of the COSMO-LEPS suite; • COSMO-LEPS for TIGGE-LAM: – develop coding, post-processing and archiving of COSMO-LEPS output files in GRIB 2 format (test Fieldextra); – assistance to users.

Future plans (2) • Support calibration and verification. • Carry on collaboration within research

Future plans (2) • Support calibration and verification. • Carry on collaboration within research project (e. g. SAFEWIND, IMPRINTS). ECMWF Seminars 2011: tentative dates are 12 -15 September 2011 …. . No more overlap with COSMO Meeting, please!

Stratified verification by weather classes and guidelines forecasters • Workshop June 2010 • Selected

Stratified verification by weather classes and guidelines forecasters • Workshop June 2010 • Selected (by myself) persons from classification, verification and forecasting world • Goals • Classification • From classification to stratified verification • From stratified verification to guidelines • Forecaster’s feedback Report on WG 4 June 2010 workshop ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 19

Classification Report on WG 4 June 2010 workshop ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010

Classification Report on WG 4 June 2010 workshop ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 20

COST 733 • 12 domains • data: ERA 40, SLP • number of types

COST 733 • 12 domains • data: ERA 40, SLP • number of types fixed: 9, 18, 27 ð 22 methods, 73 classifications (daily, 1958 -2001) COST 733 – Weather type classifications in Europe and at Meteo. Swiss | COSMO workshop, Geneva, 25 June 2010 Reinhard Schiemann, Christoph Frei, Mark Liniger, Christof Appenzeller 21

Classes and correlation to precipitation COST 733 – Weather type classifications in Europe and

Classes and correlation to precipitation COST 733 – Weather type classifications in Europe and at Meteo. Swiss | COSMO workshop, Geneva, 25 June 2010 Reinhard Schiemann, Christoph Frei, Mark Liniger, Christof Appenzeller 22

Mean Temperature January Example of Application NEAAD COSMO Workshop on Stratified Verification and Guidelines

Mean Temperature January Example of Application NEAAD COSMO Workshop on Stratified Verification and Guidelines Geneva 15 -16 June 2010 SWAAW

Remaining 2 candidates COST 733 catalogue 22 pre-defined types 5 subjectively def. types derived

Remaining 2 candidates COST 733 catalogue 22 pre-defined types 5 subjectively def. types derived types 5 Rules/ Thresholds GWT 10, 18, 26 6 Optimisation 3 Leader Algorithm 3 PCA (variants) PCACA 9, 18, 27 candidates based on entirely diffent classification methods COST 733 – Weather type classifications in Europe and at Meteo. Swiss | COSMO workshop, Geneva, 25 June 2010 Reinhard Schiemann, Christoph Frei, Mark Liniger, Christof Appenzeller 24

Requested properties of classification methods with respect to verification of models • Promote automated

Requested properties of classification methods with respect to verification of models • Promote automated classification • Stability • Easier to apply on forecasted fields • For verification purposes we are more interested in differentiating weather classes where the models have difficulties from those where it performs well. Therefore, we should evaluate the weather type classifications again with the target measure "model skill" instead of precipitation. COST 733 – Weather type classifications in Europe and at Meteo. Swiss | COSMO workshop, Geneva, 25 June 2010 Reinhard Schiemann, Christoph Frei, Mark Liniger, Christof Appenzeller 25

Stratified verification • By season, by weather class or by type of event. •

Stratified verification • By season, by weather class or by type of event. • Parameters Ø Temperature, dew point, precipitation, cloudiness, wind speed and gusts. • Scores Ø ME, STD, POD, FAR, ETS, contingency tables, fuzzy scores or fields. § Some results are available § Possible in VERSUS Report on WG 4 June 2010 workshop ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 26

Presentation Class 1, summer f 1. 2 1 0. 8 a Class 1, summer

Presentation Class 1, summer f 1. 2 1 0. 8 a Class 1, summer Bias 0. 6 0. 4 b d 0. 2 0 -0. 2 -0. 4 g c -0. 6 e -0. 8 Stations / regions Synthe tic map! Report on WG 4 June 2010 workshop ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 27

Recommendations for guidelines • The guidelines should be self-contained. • They can look like

Recommendations for guidelines • The guidelines should be self-contained. • They can look like a cookbook, for instance for the use of a parameter or for the treatment of a specific situation. • A light version can be at the disposal of the forecasted on duty (usually under time stress) when a longer version can be studied offline. • This longer version can also be used as an education tool for newcomers. • The shorter version can also be implemented as a seasonal factsheet. • The seasonal factsheets should include (if possible) the expected changes of the current model version with respect to version which was running in the past season. • Generally speaking the guidelines should be short, attractive and meaningful. Report on WG 4 June 2010 workshop ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 28

Forecasters feedback • Forecaster feedback should be organized either by a mailbox, a forum

Forecasters feedback • Forecaster feedback should be organized either by a mailbox, a forum or regular discussions. • At the end of each season a debriefing can be organized and a synthesis written. This can form a good base to the following corresponding season. Report on WG 4 June 2010 workshop ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 29

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss

Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHA Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology Meteo. Swiss Support for the 2014 Olympic Games in Sotchi

Primary meteorological needs for Sochi-2014: § § § § Enhanced observational network; Nowcasting tools;

Primary meteorological needs for Sochi-2014: § § § § Enhanced observational network; Nowcasting tools; Regional data assimilation; High-resolution NWP models and EPS; Meso-scale verification system; Means of NWP output interpretation and delivery (new parameters and products, visualization etc); postprocessing; Training 31

What can be done? • • Ambitious 0. 5 – 1 km scale model

What can be done? • • Ambitious 0. 5 – 1 km scale model 2 km EPS Possible through international collaboration (projects, demonstration projects, …). Preferably COSMO. • • • Recognised methods on present models Local adaptation (MOS, blending, 1 d-2 d models, …) Classification, analogs, climatology, … Relocate a version of COSMO LEPS Forecasters guidelines Communication with deciding partners Sotchi Olympic Games, General Introduction ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 32

Methods used at Torino 2006 Sotchi Olympic Games, General Introduction ¦ COSMO General Meeting

Methods used at Torino 2006 Sotchi Olympic Games, General Introduction ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 33

Methods used at Vacouver 2010 ATMOS MODEL LOW-RES 3 D INTEGRATION ATMOSPHERIC FORCING at

Methods used at Vacouver 2010 ATMOS MODEL LOW-RES 3 D INTEGRATION ATMOSPHERIC FORCING at FIRST ATMOS. MODEL LEVEL (T, q, U, V) ATMOSPHERIC FORCING at SURFACE (RADIATION and PRECIPITATION) External Land Surface Model With horizontal resolution as high as that of surface databases (e. g. , 100 m) HIGH-RES 2 D INTEGRATION Computational cost of off-line surface modeling system is much less than an integration of the atmospheric model 34 SLIDE 2

Applications to the 2010 Vancouver Games: Two surface systems: “ 2 D” and “Point”

Applications to the 2010 Vancouver Games: Two surface systems: “ 2 D” and “Point” 1400 x 1800 computational grid (100 -m grid size) Whistler Blackcomb Callaghan VAN Cypress USA SLIDE 3 Bowl VANCOUVER 35

Examples of Meteograms and “Surfacegrams” 36 SLIDE 12

Examples of Meteograms and “Surfacegrams” 36 SLIDE 12

2010 -2011 plans • Continue activity on stratified verification and guidelines • Interest from

2010 -2011 plans • Continue activity on stratified verification and guidelines • Interest from CH, D, I, GR, PO, RU (…) • Postprocessing • Development of MOS on COSMO (CH) • Other postprocessing: aviation, … • Fieldextra • Working packages for Sotchi 2014 • Exchange of methods and concepts with other consortia (SRNWP-ET link with applications) Sotchi Olympic Games, General Introduction ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 37

Это конец презентации Благодарю вас за внимание COSMO General meeting ¦ Moscow, September 2010

Это конец презентации Благодарю вас за внимание COSMO General meeting ¦ Moscow, September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 38

Publicity Announcement for the http: //www. smr. arpa. emr. it/srnwp Report on WG 4

Publicity Announcement for the http: //www. smr. arpa. emr. it/srnwp Report on WG 4 June 2010 workshop ¦ COSMO General Meeting September 2010 Pierre. Eckert[at]meteoswiss. ch 39